I think player conversion rate is a factor but regressed pretty hard. I think Caley once tweeted that in his model, Messi produces around 40% more actual goals than his xG figures would predict for an average player.

So there's plenty of room for players to overperform their xG via true talent and not just hot streak. But in cases like with Alexandre Lacazette last year where his actual goals were double his xG, we can look at Messi and say, this probably isn't legit.

Of course people don't need expected goals stats to figure out that Lacazette wasn't gonna continue to score a goal per game. But they might have helped find out how harsh we should have expected the decline to be.

Bought ticket for Fleetwood away today, 23 quid for a terrace spot is nice of them given I think it was 16 last year

What tier in the pyramid is that? LÖL football prices in Ingerlund.

Third, I'm paying it purely because it's a new ground and I couldn't get a ticket last season, plus standing is a novelty nowadays

pretty sick how much english people are willing to pay for football. 100 bucks for cable (think kw said that) a month to watch half the league games, and 30€ for third division standing tickets. lool

They would have to pay me to go and watch a third division game in Portugal.

I like lower tier football from time to time. However, I think third tier is the literal WÖAT ÖAT. It's just in between actual good football and actual low tier football, i.e. the worst of both worlds. Anything fourth tier on down can be quite fun to watch, though.

3rd league Fortuna Köln charges more than FC for standing tickets, I think. 20€. The latter is probably never available though. I'd like to go more as I'm living close to their ground anyway and watch me some Hansa Rostock trashing but we all consider it too ridiculous of a price.

german third tier matches can produce pretty good atmospheres imo, lots of clubs with biggish names and a decent amount of fans. Plus local derbies in the east, although those need a "enjoy responsibly" tag slapped onto them

Well, maybe I'll go watch some F95 3. Liga matches next season.

Really great strikers definitely outperform xG sone

Of the 4 English football games in 5 days I saw last season, 2 Premier League, 1 Championship, 1 Vanarama the Bristol Rovers v. Aldershot Town was probably the highlight for me. The football was terrible but the atmosphere was great. Granted they were in a push for a promotion at the time, but the "stand" behind the goal was all standing and people were singing and genuinely into it without slagging off every player that ****ed up

How does this even exist as a paragraph.

http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2...age-of-consent

Wenger says 5% chance to beat Barcelona, whos giving over 20/1?

if you mean to qualify, then many if not most places.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/...nal/to-qualify

careful of the locals

WillHill, tight as ever

I'll take Wengers hot tip and back them at 25/1

Visited Hamtramck when I went to Detroit for my brother's bachelor party. Detroit's sprawl is interesting. My brother was looking to buy a place to turn into studio spaces/co-op for artists. The building had a cell phone tower on it, the place was so cheap that the cell phone tower would cover the mortgage on the building. Forget why the deal fell through.

You act as if the shot volume is an argument against his competence, but it is quite the opposite. It is really impressive to get that many shots off. S/90 is going to converge a lot faster than NPG/90 too.

So Kane has started 8 more games in a far better team than Jermain Defoe and has managed one extra non-pen goal? GOAT

Also scored an own goal, so they're equal obv.

Kane had 1 in his first 9, and 15 in 17 since tho. #MOMENTUM

Van Gaal likes his football players in the mood apparently

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/35654173

Did he drop his pants, too?

Long balls.

Crap. Kane has a broken nose, and Dembele out for "up to" 2 weeks with a groin strain.