Quote:
Originally Posted by t3hbandit
Players/teams always raise their game when playing in front of their home fans. In theory they should be going out and giving it 100% every game but that's just not reality. Also the homefans can have a big influence on the refs, you get far less 50/50 decisions as the away side.
When United play Liverpool you've got loads of TV channels hyping the game like a heavyweight PPV clash from weeks out and it only grows as the game get's closer, the atmosphere in the ground is always amazing for games vs plop and the intensity the game's played at just doesn't happen when it's vs Watford/Newcastle.
It's actually pretty amazing how much psychology drives on field performance.
_ _ _
If managers were optimizing, much fewer matches would end with a draw. Even if the opponents score *every time* you go for it and fail, you only have to win >1/3 to be +EV. (All else equal, yes yes, I know
)
Check out Rayo Vallecano'a stats. They've only had a draw 17 times the past 4 seasons in total in La Liga (11%).