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English Football 2014/2015 - Chelsea Champions English Football 2014/2015 - Chelsea Champions

02-15-2015 , 04:11 PM
Why will you be at home?
02-15-2015 , 04:13 PM
I was under the assumption that the team at home was rotated. ( ie: if we were away at arsenal last time now its our time to be home) but it doesn't seem to work that way.
02-15-2015 , 04:15 PM
lol val :P

Nevermind you'll have Coutinho and Rogers as you say is desperate to win a trophy.
02-15-2015 , 04:18 PM
Expert betting strategy is to bet in betfair just seconds after the draw is made. Wait for a united/Liverpool/arsenal draw and bet the team not involved in the tie
02-15-2015 , 04:21 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by kingweed
lol val :P

Nevermind you'll have Coutinho and Rogers as you say is desperate to win a trophy.
i do recall a friend of mine back when he had a united ST being incredibly pissed off that they got 4 straight home draws in one season, of which he had to buy for all of them because of the compulsory cup ticket thing. only season that makes sense was the treble one though, they've not had the cup thing for that long shurely?
02-15-2015 , 04:21 PM
Don't they close the market until after the draw is made?
02-15-2015 , 04:23 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by sixfour
i do recall a friend of mine back when he had a united ST being incredibly pissed off that they got 4 straight home draws in one season, of which he had to buy for all of them because of the compulsory cup ticket thing. only season that makes sense was the treble one though, they've not had the cup thing for that long shurely?
Not a local so not entirely sure but I think it's a post Glazer thing.
02-15-2015 , 04:25 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by xXDeuce7Xx
Not a local so not entirely sure but I think it's a post Glazer thing.
that's what i thought. they may have had a replay or two making it up to every round i guess
02-15-2015 , 04:28 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by sixfour
that's what i thought. they may have had a replay or two making it up to every round i guess
No replays in 2004, only two home games.
02-15-2015 , 04:28 PM
Ozil and cazorla really looked like they were both in tandem today, not convinced about welbeck starting as a singer... For me I'd use Ox again when fit.
02-15-2015 , 04:31 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by xXDeuce7Xx
No replays in 2004, only two home games.
06/07. Needed a replay in the quarter final for four homes.
02-15-2015 , 04:35 PM
I recall some Spuds(?) fans to claim we had the easiest way to the trophy lasts season- seems like we are trying to prove them wrong with this year

Spoiler:
pretty sure ManU away is next because of this post
02-15-2015 , 04:40 PM
For the record I don't think Arsenal at 2/1 is a +EV bet but for some reason I have a hard time imagining someone else winning the trophy since every good club decided to sit out the cup
02-15-2015 , 04:40 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by sixfour
06/07. Needed a replay in the quarter final for four homes.
lol for some reason my homer brain only looked at seasons we won the damn thing
02-15-2015 , 04:54 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by valenzuela
3/4 ^ 3 is 27/64. Your math is wrong
Right. So the complete solution would be:

x^n = y where x is the probability of winning one match, y the probability of winning all of them, n the number of matches.

We want to solve for x, so x = y^(1/n)

plugging in for n = 3 and y = 1/3 (for the 2 to 1 odds) we get

x = 1/3^1/3 = ~.69

so they would need to be about 69% in each match to break even on a 2-1 bet
02-15-2015 , 05:08 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by valenzuela
3/4 ^ 3 is 27/64. Your math is wrong
Youre right was thinking 4 matches.

Point still somewhat relevant. Since 2/1 would be .69 per match theyd still need to not play mun/pool/brom(away) for them to be 70%+ to win every match.
02-15-2015 , 05:35 PM
ain't never backing no 2/1 shot pre QF, unless it's Sampras in the late 90s
02-15-2015 , 07:20 PM
To be fair, United are between 2/1 and 3/1 prior to playing tomorrow so if they win they'll surely be a pretty identical price to Arsenal?
02-15-2015 , 08:17 PM
I'm sure they will. It'll also be terrible value!
02-15-2015 , 08:39 PM
Our two goals came from a Gibbs cross and a corner. Zero chance we don't win the cup again. 2/1 is stealing money.
02-15-2015 , 08:50 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by PoseidonCubed
Our two goals came from a Gibbs cross and a corner. Zero chance we don't win the cup again. 2/1 is stealing money.
To be fair arsenal could have had atleast 5 today. Their keeper was heroic.
02-15-2015 , 08:51 PM
Arsenal will lose to United whenever they meet them because they're Arsenal and losing to United is what they do.
02-15-2015 , 09:23 PM
Except this is lolutd
02-15-2015 , 09:53 PM
Arse record vs United during the lolutd era: W0 D1 L2
02-16-2015 , 12:17 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by xXDeuce7Xx
Arse record vs United during the lolutd era: W0 D1 L2
Still can't believe we lost that game this season.

Our home form since then: maximum 27 points from nine games, 23 goals and only three conceded.

      
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