English Football 2014/2015 - Chelsea Champions - Page 1353 - Sporting Events and Fantasy Sports

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02-15-2015 , 04:11 PM

#33801

kevin21

SE Spokesman

Join Date: Oct 2007 Posts: 62,020

Why will you be at home?

02-15-2015 , 04:13 PM

#33802

valenzuela

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Dec 2004 Posts: 28,120

I was under the assumption that the team at home was rotated. ( ie: if we were away at arsenal last time now its our time to be home) but it doesn't seem to work that way.

02-15-2015 , 04:15 PM

#33803

kingweed

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Dec 2008 Posts: 46,764

lol val :P

Nevermind you'll have Coutinho and Rogers as you say is desperate to win a trophy.

02-15-2015 , 04:18 PM

#33804

valenzuela

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Dec 2004 Posts: 28,120

Expert betting strategy is to bet in betfair just seconds after the draw is made. Wait for a united/Liverpool/arsenal draw and bet the team not involved in the tie

02-15-2015 , 04:21 PM

#33805

sixfour

should be called sevenfour

Join Date: Dec 2005 Posts: 75,520

Quote:

Originally Posted by kingweed

lol val :P

Nevermind you'll have Coutinho and Rogers as you say is desperate to win a trophy.

i do recall a friend of mine back when he had a united ST being incredibly pissed off that they got 4 straight home draws in one season, of which he had to buy for all of them because of the compulsory cup ticket thing. only season that makes sense was the treble one though, they've not had the cup thing for that long shurely?

02-15-2015 , 04:21 PM

#33806

xXDeuce7Xx

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2009 Posts: 10,850

Don't they close the market until after the draw is made?

02-15-2015 , 04:23 PM

#33807

xXDeuce7Xx

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2009 Posts: 10,850

Quote:

Originally Posted by sixfour

Not a local so not entirely sure but I think it's a post Glazer thing.

02-15-2015 , 04:25 PM

#33808

sixfour

should be called sevenfour

Join Date: Dec 2005 Posts: 75,520

Quote:

Originally Posted by xXDeuce7Xx

Not a local so not entirely sure but I think it's a post Glazer thing.

that's what i thought. they may have had a replay or two making it up to every round i guess

02-15-2015 , 04:28 PM

#33809

xXDeuce7Xx

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2009 Posts: 10,850

Quote:

Originally Posted by sixfour

that's what i thought. they may have had a replay or two making it up to every round i guess

No replays in 2004, only two home games.

02-15-2015 , 04:28 PM

#33810

theshocker7

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 4,286

Ozil and cazorla really looked like they were both in tandem today, not convinced about welbeck starting as a singer... For me I'd use Ox again when fit.

02-15-2015 , 04:31 PM

#33811

sixfour

should be called sevenfour

Join Date: Dec 2005 Posts: 75,520

Quote:

Originally Posted by xXDeuce7Xx

No replays in 2004, only two home games.

06/07. Needed a replay in the quarter final for four homes.

02-15-2015 , 04:35 PM

#33812

MindFckr

Classic Arsenal GHW

Join Date: Aug 2010 Posts: 26,280

I recall some Spuds(?) fans to claim we had the easiest way to the trophy lasts season- seems like we are trying to prove them wrong with this year

Spoiler:

02-15-2015 , 04:40 PM

#33813

Cinarocket

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Nov 2009 Posts: 15,091

For the record I don't think Arsenal at 2/1 is a +EV bet but for some reason I have a hard time imagining someone else winning the trophy since every good club decided to sit out the cup

02-15-2015 , 04:40 PM

#33814

xXDeuce7Xx

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2009 Posts: 10,850

Quote:

Originally Posted by sixfour

06/07. Needed a replay in the quarter final for four homes.

lol for some reason my homer brain only looked at seasons we won the damn thing

02-15-2015 , 04:54 PM

#33815

TimTimSalabim

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Oct 2002 Posts: 15,069

Quote:

Originally Posted by valenzuela

3/4 ^ 3 is 27/64. Your math is wrong

Right. So the complete solution would be:

x^n = y where x is the probability of winning one match, y the probability of winning all of them, n the number of matches.

We want to solve for x, so x = y^(1/n)

plugging in for n = 3 and y = 1/3 (for the 2 to 1 odds) we get

x = 1/3^1/3 = ~.69

so they would need to be about 69% in each match to break even on a 2-1 bet

02-15-2015 , 05:08 PM

#33816

DuckSauce

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Apr 2011 Posts: 11,987

Quote:

Originally Posted by valenzuela

3/4 ^ 3 is 27/64. Your math is wrong

Youre right was thinking 4 matches.

Point still somewhat relevant. Since 2/1 would be .69 per match theyd still need to not play mun/pool/brom(away) for them to be 70%+ to win every match.

02-15-2015 , 05:35 PM

#33817

LostOstrich

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jan 2008 Posts: 15,933

ain't never backing no 2/1 shot pre QF, unless it's Sampras in the late 90s

02-15-2015 , 07:20 PM

#33818

joejoe1337

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jun 2007 Posts: 16,347

To be fair, United are between 2/1 and 3/1 prior to playing tomorrow so if they win they'll surely be a pretty identical price to Arsenal?

02-15-2015 , 08:17 PM

#33819

LostOstrich

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jan 2008 Posts: 15,933

I'm sure they will. It'll also be terrible value!

02-15-2015 , 08:39 PM

#33820

PoseidonCubed

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 15,123

Our two goals came from a Gibbs cross and a corner. Zero chance we don't win the cup again. 2/1 is stealing money.

02-15-2015 , 08:50 PM

#33821

DuckSauce

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Apr 2011 Posts: 11,987

Quote:

Originally Posted by PoseidonCubed

Our two goals came from a Gibbs cross and a corner. Zero chance we don't win the cup again. 2/1 is stealing money.

To be fair arsenal could have had atleast 5 today. Their keeper was heroic.

02-15-2015 , 08:51 PM

#33822

StormBorn

old hand

Join Date: Nov 2013 Posts: 1,650

Arsenal will lose to United whenever they meet them because they're Arsenal and losing to United is what they do.

02-15-2015 , 09:23 PM

#33823

DuckSauce

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Apr 2011 Posts: 11,987

Except this is lolutd

02-15-2015 , 09:53 PM

#33824

xXDeuce7Xx

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2009 Posts: 10,850

Arse record vs United during the lolutd era: W0 D1 L2

02-16-2015 , 12:17 AM

#33825

PoseidonCubed

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 15,123

Quote:

Originally Posted by xXDeuce7Xx

Arse record vs United during the lolutd era: W0 D1 L2

Still can't believe we lost that game this season.

Our home form since then: maximum 27 points from nine games, 23 goals and only three conceded.

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