Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt? - Page 9 - Sporting Events and Fantasy Sports

I will need math

my argument is chance the Pats receive a kickoff and drive to get a winning FG with 36s left is > chance of stopping the Colts for 4 downs from the 1

It's more like 30s. No timeouts. I don't think the FG is more likely. Brady would have to get one of those crazy Matt Ryan vs the Bears throws in (maybe twice). If they have a timeout you are probably right.

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11-16-2009 , 01:56 AM

#202

Riverman

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Originally Posted by chim17

http://www.advancednflstats.com/2009...-vs-colts.html

Exactly.

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11-16-2009 , 01:56 AM

#203

AGx19

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i instantly lose respect for anyone in the media that bashes this. theres been plenty of time to think it over. fucck you trent dilfer. i have yet to hear one person defend BB (besides the pats). assclown sports media

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11-16-2009 , 01:57 AM

#204

MyTurn2Raise

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Quote:

Originally Posted by NickMPK

They only have to stop them for 3 downs.
If the give up the TD on 1st down, that is the same as letting him score....the scenario necessarily already assumes they have made the stop on 1st down.

it's different due to time situation

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11-16-2009 , 01:57 AM

#205

chim17

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No need for guessing percentages anymore, read the ANFLS article.

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11-16-2009 , 01:57 AM

#206

Thremp

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Originally Posted by PartyGirlUK

So are you saying that the coaches would actually know that going for it won the game 10% more than punting, and would still punt, or could they just be ignorant?

10% is a huge, huge, huge edge. Put me in an NFL team and let me keep making +10% plays that the crowd won't like, real good chance I'm superstar coach in 5 years imo.

You'll be out of the league by year 3. No question. Maybe year 4. Lock of the week IMO.

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11-16-2009 , 01:58 AM

#207

Bill Murphy

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Originally Posted by iggymcfly

Not sure which group you're trying to imply that Simmons falls in, but I'd be shocked if he questions Belichick on this one. In his very last podcast, he was just talking about how every team should hire an 18 year old that plays lots of Madden to handle all of their 4th down, clock management, two point conversions, etc., etc.

Agreed, tho I'd loved to have been there while he was watching this game...

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11-16-2009 , 01:58 AM

#208

MacGuyV

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Originally Posted by dmisfh1

Hoping... this... is... a... level

Well it's not saying a whole lot given how sports radio is but he definitely doesn't rip every coaching/managerial move that doesn't work.

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11-16-2009 , 01:59 AM

#209

ThaSaltCracka

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if that website is basically calling this a wash, why not just punt it and avoid all the backlash lol

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11-16-2009 , 01:59 AM

#210

Riverman

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Originally Posted by Thremp

You'll be out of the league by year 3. No question. Maybe year 4. Lock of the week IMO.

The most interesting question is whether or not there are current NFL coaches who know EV and consciously make -EV decisions in order to save their job.

Kicking the XP down 8, probably. Stuff like tonight...who knows.

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11-16-2009 , 01:59 AM

#211

Semtex

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By the way, in the advanced NFL stats link that chim just posted in the early games thread, the dude says 2 point conversions are successful roughly 45% of the time. What changes on a 4th and 2? Surely the defense does not have to play honest and seriously guard the deep threat?

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11-16-2009 , 02:00 AM

#212

chim17

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Originally Posted by ThaSaltCracka

if that website is basically calling this a wash, why not just punt it and avoid all the backlash lol

Well, its at best. With significant adjustments.

He makes it seem, to me, like its pretty clearly a good decision.

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11-16-2009 , 02:01 AM

#213

zugzwang83

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i dont think it was bad if he was prepared to let the colts score IMMEDIATELY.

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11-16-2009 , 02:01 AM

#214

NickMPK

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Originally Posted by MyTurn2Raise

it's different due to time situation

Please explain.

If Addai scores on 1st down w/ the Patriots trying to stop him, the result is the same as letting him score on first down....maybe it takes one more second off the clock. Are you really saying this one second makes the difference?

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11-16-2009 , 02:01 AM

#215

Uglyowl

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Originally Posted by Semtex

Much more room to work with, you are understating the constraints of how the back of the endzone boxes everyone into a small area.

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11-16-2009 , 02:01 AM

#216

Thremp

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Semtex

By the way, in the advanced NFL stats link that chim just posted in the early games thread, the dude says 2 point conversions are successful roughly 45% of the time. What changes on a 4th and 2? Surely the defense does not have to play honest and seriously guard the deep threat?

lol

More grass = larger zones = easier passing

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11-16-2009 , 02:01 AM

#217

vixticator

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Semtex

THIS. It's not a standard 4th down situation. 2PC is correct. Use those #'s. Adjust for awesomeness of Pats offense.

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11-16-2009 , 02:02 AM

#218

MyTurn2Raise

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Semtex

this I believe

there are always the John Mackovic plays

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11-16-2009 , 02:03 AM

#219

dmisfh1

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Originally Posted by dmisfh1

Understatement of the year. He will get slaughtered in the media. Fatcessa is already outright laughing at him. I really hate that fat ****.

Anyway, like I said I think it's close. If it's 4th and 2 at midfield or closer, I go for it everytime I think. I'm willing to have Manning go 50 yards to get that TD with less than 2 minutes to go.

The funny thing is I dont know exactly where I draw the line. Like, if you asked me 4th and 2 at his own 20, punt. Midfield, go for it. Between there it's a gray area as to how much field I want to give up, knowing that it will most likely be in PM's hands for the rest of the game.

I'm sure there is a mathematical formula to determine exactly what yard line would be the buffer between go for it/punt, but I dont know which one so I only have my own limited football knowledge plus my "gut" (LOL) to rely on.

Quote:

Originally Posted by chim17

http://www.advancednflstats.com/2009...-vs-colts.html

Aaaannnnnnnnnnddd this is about as close to what I was looking for as there is out there.

So, I change my answer to "yes". Luckily I did not vote because I foreshaw something like this would be out there sooner rather than later.

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11-16-2009 , 02:03 AM

#220

MyTurn2Raise

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Originally Posted by NickMPK

it's not always an Addai run up the gut
My guess is it would take 3-4s longer on average

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11-16-2009 , 02:03 AM

#221

vixticator

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Okay, 2pc is not correct and yes you have more field to work with but it isn't a standard 4th situation and those %'s are lower. You *can* go deep of course and this has to be defended somewhat.

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11-16-2009 , 02:04 AM

#222

| Burton |

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Semtex

I imagine the field being much shorter changes things

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11-16-2009 , 02:04 AM

#223

Riverman

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btw, anyone who instinctively voted no is not very smart, at least at math-oriented decisions

this one really isnt that close

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11-16-2009 , 02:04 AM

#224

PokerFink

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Even if you only give the Pats a 50% chance of converting, it's still correct to go for it, albeit not by that much.

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11-16-2009 , 02:04 AM

#225

JaredL

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Quote:

Originally Posted by chim17

No need for guessing percentages anymore, read the ANFLS article.

Why shouldn't we be guessing percentages?

His numbers are great, great blog in general, but he's just using historical averages. It provides us with a great jumping off point for better educated guesses but all we can do is guess.

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