Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt? - Page 6 - Sporting Events and Fantasy Sports

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Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

View Poll Results: Do you AGREE with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Yes

344 64.06%

193 35.94%

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11-16-2009 , 01:29 AM

#126

MyTurn2Raise

Drug Free MVP

Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 40,622

Quote:

Originally Posted by Riverman

yes

and 2+2 hates the decision somehow

2p2 doesn't hate it

the voting is close leaning in favor last time I checked

Quote

11-16-2009 , 01:29 AM

#127

Ponies

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Mar 2007 Posts: 3,726

also people forget that ball at the 35 yard line and <2 min left 1 TO is not exactly an automatic td, even for satan.

Quote

11-16-2009 , 01:29 AM

#128

chim17

Snowboarding concerts and punk music

Join Date: Oct 2003 Posts: 56,128

I voted no but I think I was wrong.

I really really look forward to ANFLS tomorrow.

Quote

11-16-2009 , 01:29 AM

#129

Lagtastic

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Oct 2007 Posts: 3,794

Quote:

Originally Posted by Riverman

yes

and 2+2 hates the decision somehow

look at the poll. This is one of like 3 high traffic forums that would actually agree with the call.

Quote

11-16-2009 , 01:29 AM

#130

vixticator

clutch

Join Date: Jan 2006 Posts: 117,339

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheUntouchable

Seems pretty simple...

Step One: Assign a percentage to converting the 4th down.
Step Two: Assign a percentage on the Colts scoring from the NE 30 if it fails.
Step Three: Assign a percentage the Colts score if NE executes their average punt.

1. 40%
2. 75%
3. 45%

Wonder what these would make it

Quote

11-16-2009 , 01:29 AM

#131

MyTurn2Raise

Drug Free MVP

Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 40,622

Quote:

Originally Posted by Thremp

There is gross negative skew to losing a game while thinking outside of the box. Atleast in terms of keeping an NFL HC jube.

I was saying to my woman when Belichick came out ready to go for it on 4th that he is the only coach who can get away with it due to his recent past success

Quote

11-16-2009 , 01:29 AM

#132

Dudd

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Thremp

There is gross negative skew to losing a game while thinking outside of the box. Atleast in terms of keeping an NFL HC jube.

Yeah, which is why only a guy like Belichick could even think about making that call.

Quote

11-16-2009 , 01:30 AM

#133

chim17

Snowboarding concerts and punk music

Join Date: Oct 2003 Posts: 56,128

Also, most coaches aren't coaching to win.. they are coaching to keep their jobs. Even if its a 10% EV edge, it may not be in their interest.

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11-16-2009 , 01:30 AM

#134

Parlay Slow

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Riverman

I'm genuinely shocked at how ******ed this forum is.

HOW ARE YOU ALL IGNORING THE PHANTOM PI CALL??????????

LOL now he's coming into this thread to whine.

Quote

11-16-2009 , 01:30 AM

#135

AGx19

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Join Date: Apr 2008 Posts: 12,002

Quote:

Originally Posted by PartyGirlUK

Ok so basically the stats now seem to say that going for increases their winning percentages by about 10%, yet 31/32 nfl head coaches would likely have punted? Is that correct?

this

im getting so ****in mad from watching sportscenter right now

Quote

11-16-2009 , 01:30 AM

#136

MyTurn2Raise

Drug Free MVP

Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 40,622

Quote:

Originally Posted by vixticator

1. 40%
2. 75%
3. 45%

Wonder what these would make it

equal

Quote

11-16-2009 , 01:31 AM

#137

milobloom

newbie

Join Date: May 2003 Posts: 43

But the real question is why of all the talking heads in the media not one person would provide a sensible "maybe"? In baseball people have started to get around to understanding numbers, why is football still in the dark ages?

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11-16-2009 , 01:31 AM

#138

JaredL

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Etats360

Ok, I'll try this again.

A= % chance the 4th down conversion works for the pats.
B = % chance the Colts can score a TD getting the ball from the ~ 30 yard line
C= % chance the colts can score a TD getting the ball from the ~70 yard line (IND's 30 yard line)

IF A-(1-A)*B > C, you go for it

C is the chance you lose by punting. The chance you lose going for it is just (1-A)*B. That's assuming no chance of getting a FG if the Colts get a TD. So you'd go for it if:

C > (1-A)*B or A > 1 - C/B or A > (B-C)/B.

I think it's a pretty easy go-for-it. For example, if the Patriots are 50% to get the first down then you have to think punting makes the Colts less than half as likely to get the TD as scoring from the 30. If you think the Colts' chances go from 40% on a punt to 60% on a ToD then the Pats only need to get it 1/3 of the time.

Quote

11-16-2009 , 01:31 AM

#139

MyTurn2Raise

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Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 40,622

Quote:

Originally Posted by PartyGirlUK

Ok so basically the stats now seem to say that going for increases their winning percentages by about 10%, yet 31/32 nfl head coaches would likely have punted? Is that correct?

yep

Quote

11-16-2009 , 01:33 AM

#140

Thremp

banned

Join Date: Nov 2005 Posts: 36,452

MT2R,

After some discussion are you referring to when Addai was tackled with 1:20s left? Since it seems asinine to think you want a player to make that decision on the fly. Or on a subsequent play, which makes me think you blow dong at math.

Quote

11-16-2009 , 01:35 AM

#141

TheUntouchable

banned

Join Date: Nov 2008 Posts: 23,975

Quote:

Originally Posted by vixticator

1. 40%
2. 75%
3. 45%

Wonder what these would make it

If they go for it they win like 70% of the time (figure there is like a 5% chance Colts score and NE gets a FG)

If they punt they win 55% of the time.

Am I missing anything? If your numbers are correct, going for it is a no-brainer. I can't imagine Scenario 3 is as high as 45% though.

Quote

11-16-2009 , 01:36 AM

#142

vixticator

clutch

Join Date: Jan 2006 Posts: 117,339

Quote:

Originally Posted by MyTurn2Raise

equal

lol, really? i don't know if my %'s are right but that's sick.

Quote

11-16-2009 , 01:36 AM

#143

kidcolin

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Quote:

Originally Posted by PartyGirlUK

Ok so basically the stats now seem to say that going for increases their winning percentages by about 10%, yet 31/32 nfl head coaches would likely have punted? Is that correct?

and for some of them, it probably makes sense with regards to job security. BB is one of the few bad asses who's pretty much immune to ******ed GMs/public opinion/etc

Quote

11-16-2009 , 01:37 AM

#144

TheUntouchable

banned

Join Date: Nov 2008 Posts: 23,975

Trent Dilfer is ******ed.

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11-16-2009 , 01:37 AM

#145

MyTurn2Raise

Drug Free MVP

Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 40,622

Quote:

Originally Posted by Thremp

one it was first and goal at the 1, the Pats should've let the Colts walk in for a TD
that is what I am saying

Quote

11-16-2009 , 01:37 AM

#146

dmisfh1

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Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 5,408

No, but it's not nearly as bad as the media will make it out to be. It's actually pretty close imo.

Quote

11-16-2009 , 01:38 AM

#147

GREEAR10

banned

Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 70,909

"ludacris" "absolutly rediculous" "the worst decision i've ever seen"

LOL DILFER

Quote

11-16-2009 , 01:38 AM

#148

Riverman

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Quote:

Originally Posted by kidcolin

and for some of them, it probably makes sense with regards to job security. BB is one of the few bad asses who's pretty much immune to ******ed GMs/public opinion/etc

this