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View Poll Results: Do you AGREE with Belichick's 4th down attempt?
Yes 344 64.06%
No 193 35.94%
Voters: 537. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 11-16-2009, 01:21 AM   #101
sportsjefe
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

geez, you people must still be praising kopp for getting mixed up with 5-3 of diamonds...
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Old 11-16-2009, 01:21 AM   #102
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

I hate BB, but I just gained a lot of respect for him. Whether or not the call was "correct," I can't say for sure. It was probably somewhere between slightly +EV and slightly -EV. I just love the fact that he doesn't give a **** about the results-oriented, math-impaired talking heads who'll automatically say "ZOMG you have to punt there!" if they don't convert.

BTW, all the Pats homers complaining about the spot--shut up.

Last edited by slickpoppa; 11-16-2009 at 01:26 AM.
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Old 11-16-2009, 01:21 AM   #103
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

I as informed that market price of winning after the fail was 40%. You can derive from that the other things somewhat. Atleast within reason.
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Old 11-16-2009, 01:21 AM   #104
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

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Originally Posted by | Burton | View Post
one question: if your are a defensive player on that last play and you think the guy you are covering has any chance of catching the game winning TD don't u just tackle the guy and take the PI?
Interesting strategy, can't you just keep doing that until they are left with one play instead they had enough time for 3 or so.
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Old 11-16-2009, 01:21 AM   #105
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Based on some numbers from the other two threads on this subject (one in SB and one in SE), the Pats were about 84% to win the game by going for it and 75% to win the game by punting. Punting would have been a huge mistake.

Conversion probability: 60%
Win probability of the Pats if they fail on 4th: 60%
Win probability of the Pats if they punt: 75% (ldo)
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Old 11-16-2009, 01:22 AM   #106
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

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I as informed that market price of winning after the fail was 40%. You can derive from that the other things somewhat. Atleast within reason.
Pats chance of winning, right?
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Old 11-16-2009, 01:22 AM   #107
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

If they convert it's over. If you don't get it you go from like 40% to 70% re: Colts scoring. I'm too lazy to do the math but I'm really, really sure going for it is correct. Especially when you get the first down and the refs say you didn't.
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Old 11-16-2009, 01:22 AM   #108
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

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Originally Posted by sumpy View Post
The thing that gets me is that a coach finally has the guts to try something, and one of his former players is on TV immediately afterword saying that it was the worst decision that he has ever made.
Yea but if it worked out, Rodney would be blowing BB saying that play shows why he's such a good coach.

I think he went for it because if they get it, they win. If not, Manning will probably score and they only need to get FG to win with Brady as the QB. He just didn't think Manning would be smart enough to milk the clock to 15 seconds or something along that line.
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Old 11-16-2009, 01:23 AM   #109
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

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sadly, they converted it, but the official botched the call

even with the bobble, receiver clearly has the ball with his left heel on the 30 and his body upfield from that left foot

THEY MADE IT and should've been able to kneel out the game
the 3 angles shown on sportscenter confirm this
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Old 11-16-2009, 01:23 AM   #110
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

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Originally Posted by Thremp View Post
I as informed that market price of winning after the fail was 40%. You can derive from that the other things somewhat. Atleast within reason.
No you can't.
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Old 11-16-2009, 01:23 AM   #111
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

http://www.advancednflstats.com/2009...-vs-colts.html
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Old 11-16-2009, 01:23 AM   #112
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

According to Advanced NFL Stats, the Pats were 77% win before going for it, and 66% to win after failing. These stats seem to underestimate Manning in both circumstances in my judgment, especially the second, but they make it look like an easy call to go for it.
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Old 11-16-2009, 01:24 AM   #113
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

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Originally Posted by Thremp View Post
I as informed that market price of winning after the fail was 40%. You can derive from that the other things somewhat. Atleast within reason.
Yeah, I was using this and the fact that atrain said win probabilty for an average team is 33% from the opposing 30 down 6 and 21% from one's own 30 down 6 as my basis. I figured that if the Colts were 40% to win the game after the miss, then giving similar adjustments for the offense, they'd be about 25% to win if the Pats had punted. That last estimate is on the low side if anything and it still shows going for it to be >>> punting.
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Old 11-16-2009, 01:25 AM   #114
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

good call ainec
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Old 11-16-2009, 01:25 AM   #115
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Hey guise,

They got the first down.
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Old 11-16-2009, 01:26 AM   #116
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Listening to sports radio is maddening.
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Old 11-16-2009, 01:26 AM   #117
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

get this bum Dilfer off my t.v. ffs man it isn't an attrocious decision or w/e word he just used. ffs do they not have a clue as to how to go about figuring this **** out
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Old 11-16-2009, 01:26 AM   #118
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Pretty interesting. I wonder what the chance of the FG for Pats is for the pats with no TOs and 30s left. I can't imagine its greater than 10% against the prevent there.
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Old 11-16-2009, 01:27 AM   #119
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Ok so basically the stats now seem to say that going for it increases their winning percentages by about 10%, yet 31/32 nfl head coaches would likely have punted? Is that correct?

Last edited by PartyGirlUK; 11-16-2009 at 01:53 AM.
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Old 11-16-2009, 01:27 AM   #120
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

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Originally Posted by GREEAR10 View Post
get this dumb Dilfer off my t.v. ffs man it isn't an attrocious decision or w/e word he just used. ffs do they not have a clue as to how to go about figuring this **** out
+1

agreeing w/ greear, head asplode
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Old 11-16-2009, 01:27 AM   #121
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

idk if we got the 1st down but it was prob only a few inches off either way. the spot was terrible though
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Old 11-16-2009, 01:28 AM   #122
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

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Originally Posted by PartyGirlUK View Post
Ok so basically the stats now seem to say that going for increases their winning percentages by about 10%, yet 31/32 nfl head coaches would likely have punted? Is that correct?
yes

and 2+2 hates the decision somehow
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Old 11-16-2009, 01:28 AM   #123
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

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yes

and 2+2 hates the decision somehow
You know there's a poll to go along with this thread, right?
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Old 11-16-2009, 01:28 AM   #124
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Also, the biggest mistake the Pats made was tackling Addai at the 1 with 1:20 left.
If they just let him score, they get the ball back and drive down for a FG at least 1/3 of the time.
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Old 11-16-2009, 01:29 AM   #125
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

There is gross negative skew to losing a game while thinking outside of the box. Atleast in terms of keeping an NFL HC jube.
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