Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt? - Page 28 - Sporting Events and Fantasy Sports

I just saw Millen on ESPN talking about the call but I had it on mute since I figured listening to him would make my ears bleed. He actually agreed with the decision to go for it?

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11-17-2009 , 01:04 AM

#677

Dudd

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40% of the time you win in regulation by making the first two point conversion. 24% of the time you go to overtime by making the second two point try, which is a 12% chance of winning. 36% of the time you lose in regulation. So if you're 40% to convert a 2 point try, you go from 50% to 52% by going for it, assuming overtime is a coin flip, and it's obviously higher if your two point attempt is higher than 40%, which I think historically it is.

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11-17-2009 , 01:05 AM

#678

JaredL

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Quote:

Originally Posted by ctyri

You've spent most of this thread chastising others for not understanding the math involved here.

And now you want to claim 0.4*2pts is better than 0.99*1pt. Why? Because you can try it twice (apparently some magic occurs whereby 2*0.4*2 > 2*0.99*1)

That's not the point.

Assume you win in OT half the time and are scoring two TDs. With two extra points you win:

.5 (OT) * .99 (first extra point) * .99 (2nd extra point) = 49%

If you go for 2 on the first one then you lose if you miss both. If you fail the first time but make the second one then you are in the same tied situation. If you make the first and kick the PAT the second time then you win outright. Finally if you miss the PAT on the second one you have the same 50% chance as if you kicked both. So your winning chance is:

.4*.99 + .5*(.6*.4 + .4*.01) = 51.8%

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11-17-2009 , 01:05 AM

#679

ctyri

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Yeah sorry dudes, I just wrote it out and realized -- oh ****, you don't have to go for it the second time if you hit, duh. My apologies.

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11-17-2009 , 01:07 AM

#680

Victor

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Quote:

Originally Posted by waldo027

I just saw Millen on ESPN talking about the call but I had it on mute since I figured listening to him would make my ears bleed. He actually agreed with the decision to go for it?

i am not surprised millen realizes to go for it. this is not a knock or endorsement

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11-17-2009 , 01:09 AM

#681

MacGuyV

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Originally Posted by agdci981

I am just getting tired of the "You play the percentages" argument from people that say you should punt there. THE PERCENTAGES SAY YOU GO FOR IT!!!!! I just want to stop them and ask them to explain the "percentages."

But it was their own 28! lol

Keep in mind this is the same network that said BB lost his team after Lawyer Milloy was cut just before the 2003 season....
OK we were wrong about that. But sending phantom bad messages to your defense?? They're definitely finished now.

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11-17-2009 , 01:09 AM

#682

Artdogg

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with a 50% success rate:

.5*.99=.495
.5*.5=.25
.5*.5=.25

pretty crazy actually

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11-17-2009 , 01:11 AM

#683

Riverman

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By the way, advancednflstats says the league conversion rate is 45%, so your offense has to be really, really bad to make it wrong to go for 2 down 8.

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11-17-2009 , 01:12 AM

#684

Riverman

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Edited to delete self-pwnage.

Last edited by Riverman; 11-17-2009 at 01:23 AM.

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11-17-2009 , 01:12 AM

#685

GREEAR10

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so basically everytime your down 14 and score you should be going for 2....even if its in the 1st qtr? or does that have no effect?

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11-17-2009 , 01:13 AM

#686

Artdogg

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also, things wouldn't really change with more scoring from the opposition (provided you do it in the 4th quarter) as another FG would make it a 9 point game and another TD would make it a 13 point game (though they'd go for 2 in this situation)

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11-17-2009 , 01:14 AM

#687

Victor

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Originally Posted by GREEAR10

so basically everytime your down 14 and score you should be going for 2....even if its in the 1st qtr? or does that have no effect?

i dont know if i should disbelieve this or not

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11-17-2009 , 01:15 AM

#688

Riverman

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Originally Posted by GREEAR10

so basically everytime your down 14 and score you should be going for 2....even if its in the 1st qtr? or does that have no effect?

I'm honestly not sure off the top of my head, but my instinct is "no" unless your defense is super awesome or their offense is terribad, which is highly unlikely given you're down 14.

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11-17-2009 , 01:16 AM

#689

Artdogg

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Riverman

Fail.

DUCY?

chances of 15 points:

.5*.99=.495

12 points:

.5 (failed 2 pointer) * .5 (failed 2 pointer) = .25

14 points:

.5 (failed 2 pointer) * .5 (success) = .25

nope, don't see why

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11-17-2009 , 01:18 AM

#690

Victor

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Riverman

I'm honestly not sure off the top of my head, but my instinct is "no" unless your defense is super awesome or their offense is terribad, which is highly unlikely given you're down 14.

greaer/sklansky is right. obv.

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11-17-2009 , 01:18 AM

#691

Riverman

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Artdogg

chances of 15 points:

.5*.99=.495

12 points:

.5 (failed 2 pointer) * .5 (failed 2 pointer) = .25

14 points:

.5 (failed 2 pointer) * .5 (success) = .25

nope, don't see why

Now I'm the ass. Sorry, misread the post as you saying the chances of 15 and 12 were the same. My bad.

Last edited by Riverman; 11-17-2009 at 01:23 AM. Reason: Sorry Artdogg.

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11-17-2009 , 01:22 AM

#692

Artdogg

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I don't think any of these strategies should be used until the 4th quarter, too many scoring possibilities remain.

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11-17-2009 , 01:23 AM

#693

suzzer99

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Quote:

Originally Posted by GREEAR10

so basically everytime your down 14 and score you should be going for 2....even if its in the 1st qtr? or does that have no effect?

No not unless you think you're > 50%, in which case you should almost always be going for it early. There's just too many score permutations that can happen with several quarters to play to give up 5% of a point in EV.

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11-17-2009 , 01:24 AM

#694

MacGuyV

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I kind of miss Emmitt Smith on the postgame. Watching him embarrass himself not being able to get out a complete sentence was at least entertaining.

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11-17-2009 , 01:33 AM

#695

ctyri

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The 2-pt conv question is interesting, though. I think a team with a great QB and decent goal line RB could score >50% in 2-pt conversions -- think Indy, Minnesota, NE. Really, they should go for 2 at every chance until 4th quarter score dictates other strategies. The extra beauty of this is you can also induce opponents to consider trying to match you if you get one or two this way, and if they are <50%, they are leaving points off the board.

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11-17-2009 , 01:48 AM

#696

RacersEdge

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Quote:

Originally Posted by GREEAR10

so basically everytime your down 14 and score you should be going for 2....even if its in the 1st qtr? or does that have no effect?

It's really a function of number of total possessions left in the game - the "book" says if less than 20 possessions left, go for 2 if down 14. So 5-6 possessions per quarter - you could say do it 2nd quarter or later.

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11-17-2009 , 01:50 AM

#697

JaredL

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What is "the 'book'"?

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11-17-2009 , 01:53 AM

#698

RacersEdge

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Quote:

Originally Posted by JaredL

What is "the 'book'"?

just the reference chart annoucers always say coaches use to make 2 pt decisions

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11-17-2009 , 02:15 AM

#699

lapoker17

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dolphins should go for 2 at all times.

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11-17-2009 , 03:22 AM

#700

Victor

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only person i have convinced is my father and it took less than 5 minutes. spent tons more times on friends and randoms.

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