Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt? - Page 2 - Sporting Events and Fantasy Sports

the odds of getting a first down there is obv not same as at other points in the game though.... defense will almost certainly not play honest on deep routes and if you want to launch it you win

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11-16-2009 , 12:53 AM

#27

Nonfiction

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riverman itt

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11-16-2009 , 12:53 AM

#28

Riverman

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BB press conf. on espn 2 is awesome btw

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11-16-2009 , 12:53 AM

#29

TheUntouchable

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Seems pretty simple...

Step One: Assign a percentage to converting the 4th down.
Step Two: Assign a percentage on the Colts scoring from the NE 30 if it fails.
Step Three: Assign a percentage the Colts score if NE executes their average punt.

I don't know enough about football probabilities, but the answers are probably out there somewhere.

If Step One is like 35%, then they win it right there 35% of the time. If you factor in that the Colts might be like a coinflip to score from the 30, it seems like a good decision. I have no idea what these numbers are though.

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11-16-2009 , 12:53 AM

#30

chim17

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He made a pretty big error by not letting them score after he failed on 4th down and giving them time.

You didn't trust your team to stop them with 70 yards to go.. but lets fight it when we're on the 4 with 45 seconds left?

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11-16-2009 , 12:54 AM

#31

kidcolin

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Quote:

Originally Posted by GREEAR10

Dungy: "You just HAVE TO punt the ball there"

Dungy prolly wasn't a big numbers guy or he'd atleast realize it's close.

most football guys aren't thinking math here. It's just a notion that no matter how bad or tired your defense is, no matter how amazing the Colts offense, you don't risk turning it over on downs there.

Honestly, they'd all be saying the same thing if it were 4th and inches. They'd be saying it if they knew you convert 90% of the time (where it'd be clear decision). So who cares what they think.

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11-16-2009 , 12:54 AM

#32

Karak

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Quote:

Originally Posted by TheUntouchable

it is way way way higher than 35 %

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11-16-2009 , 12:54 AM

#33

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Originally Posted by TheUntouchable

I think the colts were better than a coinflip to score from the 30 fwiw

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11-16-2009 , 12:55 AM

#34

SMIGLET

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belichick had more faith in his offense vs the colts defense for 2 yards than in his defense vs manning for 60-70 yards

i mean cmon, brady going for 2 yards vs a defense hes pretty much carved all night? i would have done it too

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11-16-2009 , 12:55 AM

#35

Thremp

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Quote:

Originally Posted by GREEAR10

Dungy: "You just HAVE TO punt the ball there"

Dungy prolly wasn't a big numbers guy or he'd atleast realize it's close.

Wow. This is really really good from you Greeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeear.

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11-16-2009 , 12:55 AM

#36

Etats360

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Ok, I'll try this again.

A= % chance the 4th down conversion works for the pats.
B = % chance the Colts can score a TD getting the ball from the ~ 30 yard line
C= % chance the colts can score a TD getting the ball from the ~70 yard line (IND's 30 yard line)

IF A-(1-A)*B > C, you go for it

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11-16-2009 , 12:56 AM

#37

Riverman

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Jesus, I know you all think I'm a ****** but going for it there is clearly correct, all the other clock management decisions aside. It's really not close. And of course it's already started on ESPN, "OMG THING OF THE MESSAGE SENT TO THE DEFENSE!"

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11-16-2009 , 12:56 AM

#38

WaterWalker

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imo, its a close call

He fears Peyton Manning ldo. (cant blame him i guess) And he has alot of faith in Brady. (cant blame him i guess).

But this particular situation says his fear of Peyton trumps all.

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11-16-2009 , 12:56 AM

#39

PartyGirlUK

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Originally Posted by littlekeed

Someone is going to calculate whether or not this was correct. I have a feeling it was.

Ya deffo a math problem, would love to see results.

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11-16-2009 , 12:57 AM

#40

WaterWalker

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Riverman

Upon reflection, the most awesome part of this is that BB would do it again without a second thought.

i believe he just said in his press conference, that he still questions that call.

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11-16-2009 , 12:57 AM

#41

MyTurn2Raise

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Riverman

BB press conf. on espn 2 is awesome btw

what did he say?

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11-16-2009 , 12:57 AM

#42

istewart

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11-16-2009 , 12:58 AM

#43

ProfessorBen

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grearrrrrrrrrrr! making a surprising amount of sense.

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11-16-2009 , 12:58 AM

#44

PartyGirlUK

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Also, regardless of the right play, how many coaches in nfl would go for it there?

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11-16-2009 , 12:58 AM

#45

disjunction

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Quote:

Originally Posted by TheUntouchable

You can make it simpler. With the clock barely an issue, you're basically comparing the chance of not converting, to the chance of letting the Colts drive 40 yards to the NE 30.

Good decision, and it's not that close.

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11-16-2009 , 12:58 AM

#46

TheUntouchable

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I'm starting to think it's a good decision. I think it's almost a coinflip that they convert and win the game right there. Adding in that the Colts aren't a lock to score from the 30 than it seems to make it a good decision. This is definitely very interesting.

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11-16-2009 , 12:59 AM

#47

MyTurn2Raise

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sadly, they converted it, but the official botched the call

even with the bobble, receiver clearly has the ball with his left heel on the 30 and his body upfield from that left foot

THEY MADE IT and should've been able to kneel out the game

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11-16-2009 , 12:59 AM

#48

gumpzilla

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Riverman

Jesus, I know you all think I'm a ****** but going for it there is clearly correct, all the other clock management decisions aside. It's really not close.

The thing is, even if it is clearly correct (I don't think it's clear) there are then several other things that are most likely incorrect that happened in the plays surrounding that particular call. One way or another Belichick ****ed this one up good.

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11-16-2009 , 12:59 AM

#49

ProfessorBen

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for those wondering about the answer to the math problem, http://www.advancednflstats.com/ has a bunch of examples from past scenarios and probably will have an analysis on it up in the next day or so.