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View Poll Results: Do you AGREE with Belichick's 4th down attempt?
Yes 344 64.06%
No 193 35.94%
Voters: 537. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 11-16-2009, 12:53 AM   #26
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

the odds of getting a first down there is obv not same as at other points in the game though.... defense will almost certainly not play honest on deep routes and if you want to launch it you win
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Old 11-16-2009, 12:53 AM   #27
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

riverman itt
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Old 11-16-2009, 12:53 AM   #28
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

BB press conf. on espn 2 is awesome btw
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Old 11-16-2009, 12:53 AM   #29
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Seems pretty simple...

Step One: Assign a percentage to converting the 4th down.
Step Two: Assign a percentage on the Colts scoring from the NE 30 if it fails.
Step Three: Assign a percentage the Colts score if NE executes their average punt.

I don't know enough about football probabilities, but the answers are probably out there somewhere.

If Step One is like 35%, then they win it right there 35% of the time. If you factor in that the Colts might be like a coinflip to score from the 30, it seems like a good decision. I have no idea what these numbers are though.
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Old 11-16-2009, 12:53 AM   #30
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

He made a pretty big error by not letting them score after he failed on 4th down and giving them time.

You didn't trust your team to stop them with 70 yards to go.. but lets fight it when we're on the 4 with 45 seconds left?
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Old 11-16-2009, 12:54 AM   #31
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Quote:
Originally Posted by GREEAR10 View Post
Dungy: "You just HAVE TO punt the ball there"

Dungy prolly wasn't a big numbers guy or he'd atleast realize it's close.
most football guys aren't thinking math here. It's just a notion that no matter how bad or tired your defense is, no matter how amazing the Colts offense, you don't risk turning it over on downs there.

Honestly, they'd all be saying the same thing if it were 4th and inches. They'd be saying it if they knew you convert 90% of the time (where it'd be clear decision). So who cares what they think.
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Old 11-16-2009, 12:54 AM   #32
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Quote:
Originally Posted by TheUntouchable View Post
Seems pretty simple...

Step One: Assign a percentage to converting the 4th down.
Step Two: Assign a percentage on the Colts scoring from the NE 30 if it fails.
Step Three: Assign a percentage the Colts score if NE executes their average punt.

I don't know enough about football probabilities, but the answers are probably out there somewhere.

If Step One is like 35%, then they win it right there 35% of the time. If you factor in that the Colts might be like a coinflip to score from the 30, it seems like a good decision. I have no idea what these numbers are though.
it is way way way higher than 35 %
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Old 11-16-2009, 12:54 AM   #33
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Quote:
Originally Posted by TheUntouchable View Post
Seems pretty simple...

Step One: Assign a percentage to converting the 4th down.
Step Two: Assign a percentage on the Colts scoring from the NE 30 if it fails.
Step Three: Assign a percentage the Colts score if NE executes their average punt.

I don't know enough about football probabilities, but the answers are probably out there somewhere.

If Step One is like 35%, then they win it right there 35% of the time. If you factor in that the Colts might be like a coinflip to score from the 30, it seems like a good decision. I have no idea what these numbers are though.
I think the colts were better than a coinflip to score from the 30 fwiw
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Old 11-16-2009, 12:55 AM   #34
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

belichick had more faith in his offense vs the colts defense for 2 yards than in his defense vs manning for 60-70 yards

i mean cmon, brady going for 2 yards vs a defense hes pretty much carved all night? i would have done it too
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Old 11-16-2009, 12:55 AM   #35
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Quote:
Originally Posted by GREEAR10 View Post
Dungy: "You just HAVE TO punt the ball there"

Dungy prolly wasn't a big numbers guy or he'd atleast realize it's close.
Wow. This is really really good from you Greeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeear.
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Old 11-16-2009, 12:55 AM   #36
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Ok, I'll try this again.

A= % chance the 4th down conversion works for the pats.
B = % chance the Colts can score a TD getting the ball from the ~ 30 yard line
C= % chance the colts can score a TD getting the ball from the ~70 yard line (IND's 30 yard line)

IF A-(1-A)*B > C, you go for it
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Old 11-16-2009, 12:56 AM   #37
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Jesus, I know you all think I'm a ****** but going for it there is clearly correct, all the other clock management decisions aside. It's really not close. And of course it's already started on ESPN, "OMG THING OF THE MESSAGE SENT TO THE DEFENSE!"
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Old 11-16-2009, 12:56 AM   #38
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

imo, its a close call

He fears Peyton Manning ldo. (cant blame him i guess) And he has alot of faith in Brady. (cant blame him i guess).

But this particular situation says his fear of Peyton trumps all.
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Old 11-16-2009, 12:56 AM   #39
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Quote:
Originally Posted by littlekeed View Post
Someone is going to calculate whether or not this was correct. I have a feeling it was.
Ya deffo a math problem, would love to see results.
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Old 11-16-2009, 12:57 AM   #40
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Riverman View Post
Upon reflection, the most awesome part of this is that BB would do it again without a second thought.
i believe he just said in his press conference, that he still questions that call.
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Old 11-16-2009, 12:57 AM   #41
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Riverman View Post
BB press conf. on espn 2 is awesome btw
what did he say?
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Old 11-16-2009, 12:57 AM   #42
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

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Old 11-16-2009, 12:58 AM   #43
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

grearrrrrrrrrrr! making a surprising amount of sense.
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Old 11-16-2009, 12:58 AM   #44
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Also, regardless of the right play, how many coaches in nfl would go for it there?
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Old 11-16-2009, 12:58 AM   #45
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Quote:
Originally Posted by TheUntouchable View Post
Seems pretty simple...

Step One: Assign a percentage to converting the 4th down.
Step Two: Assign a percentage on the Colts scoring from the NE 30 if it fails.
Step Three: Assign a percentage the Colts score if NE executes their average punt.
You can make it simpler. With the clock barely an issue, you're basically comparing the chance of not converting, to the chance of letting the Colts drive 40 yards to the NE 30.

Good decision, and it's not that close.
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Old 11-16-2009, 12:58 AM   #46
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

I'm starting to think it's a good decision. I think it's almost a coinflip that they convert and win the game right there. Adding in that the Colts aren't a lock to score from the 30 than it seems to make it a good decision. This is definitely very interesting.
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Old 11-16-2009, 12:59 AM   #47
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

sadly, they converted it, but the official botched the call

even with the bobble, receiver clearly has the ball with his left heel on the 30 and his body upfield from that left foot

THEY MADE IT and should've been able to kneel out the game
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Old 11-16-2009, 12:59 AM   #48
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Riverman View Post
Jesus, I know you all think I'm a ****** but going for it there is clearly correct, all the other clock management decisions aside. It's really not close.
The thing is, even if it is clearly correct (I don't think it's clear) there are then several other things that are most likely incorrect that happened in the plays surrounding that particular call. One way or another Belichick ****ed this one up good.
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Old 11-16-2009, 12:59 AM   #49
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

for those wondering about the answer to the math problem, http://www.advancednflstats.com/ has a bunch of examples from past scenarios and probably will have an analysis on it up in the next day or so.
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Old 11-16-2009, 01:00 AM   #50
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Re: Do you agree with Belichick's 4th down attempt?

the bad decision was to not let the Colts walk into the endzone when they got to the 2
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