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11-13-2016 , 07:15 PM

#26

AngerPush

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Namath12

If you're like me you don't really give a **** about it. I've never understood why anyone would. I want the other esseecee teams to suck because **** those guys their tears provide me with sustenance and their fans are the people with whom I interact the most irl. I hate every other team in Bama's conference to some degree. This season is a great result so far for me. really hoping Bama draws UF in the SECCG the area I'm in is lousy with their fans (crushing Tebow back in the day was awesome to witness as well)

I only root for SEC teams when I believe it'll help UGA in the long-run. Surely other SEC winning titles helped the whole conference.

This is pretty widely accepted

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11-13-2016 , 07:24 PM

#27

eyebooger

Join Date: May 2010 Posts: 59,945

Quote:

Originally Posted by GBP04

so does wisconsin make playoff if they win out?

Almost certainly imo.

Quote

11-13-2016 , 08:25 PM

#28

REDeYeS00

always sloppy

Join Date: Jun 2004 Posts: 25,781

Quote:

Originally Posted by PocketChads

1. Michigan
2. Clemson
3. Alabama
4. Washington
5. Texas A&M
6. Ohio State
7. Louisville
8. Wisconsin
9. Western Michigan
10. Navy
11. Nebraska
12. Minnesota
13. Iowa
14. Northwestern
15. Indiana
16. Colorado
17. Hawaii
18. Washington State
19. Florida
20. Arkansas
21. Virginia Tech
22. Tennessee
23. Florida State
24. Auburn
25. Chattanooga

shocking omission of troy, san diego state, and the john carroll blue streaks

speaking of shocking, apparently hayden panettiere plays men's soccer at john carroll.

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11-13-2016 , 11:53 PM

#29

MrFeelNothin

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Sep 2004 Posts: 4,457

Quote:

Originally Posted by flabucki09

Nice work - I think your top ten might be perfect. After that who knows? There are so many "good" teams - but only one "great" one. The struggle will be to see who can get to the #4 seed entering the playoff. Current wisdom shows you might want to have a month to get ready for Bama - as opposed to being the 2-3 seed winner and only having a week to prepare.

But if you are the #2/3 youve got a 10-25% chance Bama gets upset in the first round. That is worth far more than extra prep time.

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11-14-2016 , 12:03 AM

#30

maxtower

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Quote:

Originally Posted by GBP04

so does wisconsin make playoff if they win out?

I believe whoever wins the B1G will make the playoffs. Unless something wild happens, a 2 loss team is going to win the B1G (or possibly 1 loss UM). All 4 possibilities are currently ranked ahead of Oklahoma and given the fact that one will have to win a conf. champ game, I don't see Oklahoma jumping any 2 loss B1G team.

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11-14-2016 , 01:04 AM

#31

GoldenBears

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A&M: 6-3, 1 top-25 win (Auburn), 3 total top-40 wins
Losses to #1 Bama, UR 5-5 Ole Miss and UR 4-6 Miss State

Stanford: 6-3, 1 top-25 win (USC), 4 total top-40 wins
Losses to #7 Washington, #11 Colorado, #20 Wazzu

Guess which one idiot coaches have ranked 23rd and which is ranked 31st?

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11-14-2016 , 01:07 AM

#32

MrFeelNothin

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Sep 2004 Posts: 4,457

Quote:

Originally Posted by GoldenBears

Stanford 23rd?

Quote

11-14-2016 , 01:24 AM

#33

Holliday

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Quote:

Originally Posted by GoldenBears

A&M: 6-3, 1 top-25 win (Auburn), 3 total top-40 wins
Losses to #1 Bama, UR 5-5 Ole Miss and UR 4-6 Miss State

Stanford: 6-3, 1 top-25 win (USC), 4 total top-40 wins
Losses to #7 Washington, #11 Colorado, #20 Wazzu

Guess which one idiot coaches have ranked 23rd and which is ranked 31st?

That is a trick question--it's Boise State 23rd and Tennessee 31st! This is the ****tiest bar trivia ever or maybe you mean 22nd and 32nd?

Who's the 4th? I got USC, UCLA, & KState.

Devil's advocate; Two of Tamu's losses were on the road vs. one of Stanford's and two of Stanford's were blowouts vs. none for Tamu (or possibly one if you count Bama).

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11-14-2016 , 01:27 AM

#34

GoldenBears

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Side note: Is Troy (61st in Sag, 0 wins against top-60 teams) the worst team ever to be ranked? Why not NDSU (60th, won at Iowa, 5th in a row v FBS P5)

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11-14-2016 , 01:30 AM

#35

GoldenBears

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Holliday

Believe it or not, Sagarin has Notre Dame at 40th. All six of their losses are by 1 score.

Quote

11-14-2016 , 01:32 AM

#36

PocketChads

guaranteed 42-10 finish

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 22,494

GoldenBears how much do we have to pay you to do those rankings you used to do about how likely it was for an average top 5 team to do that well against that schedule

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11-14-2016 , 01:34 AM

#37

GoldenBears

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Quote:

Originally Posted by PocketChads

GoldenBears how much do we have to pay you to do those rankings you used to do about how likely it was for an average top 5 team to do that well against that schedule

Somebody just has to google around and find the forumula for converting point spread into win probability

it's like spread to the .1-something-something * 49.3 or something like that.

I broke my old laptop and forgot the formula and didn't find it in 5 minutes of googling.

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11-14-2016 , 01:35 AM

#38

PocketChads

guaranteed 42-10 finish

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 22,494

Thx

On it when sober

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11-14-2016 , 01:36 AM

#39

PocketChads

guaranteed 42-10 finish

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 22,494

Quote:

Originally Posted by PocketChads

Thx

On it when sober

Haha that's never happening, idiot

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11-14-2016 , 01:49 AM

#40

Holliday

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Quote:

Originally Posted by GoldenBears

Side note: Is Troy (61st in Sag, 0 wins against top-60 teams) the worst team ever to be ranked? Why not NDSU (60th, won at Iowa, 5th in a row v FBS P5)

I'm pretty sure some little team off a big upset who'd be well below 61 has made it in for a week before but can't remember anyone specific. Maybe Eastern Washington, Jacksonville State, Louisiana-Monroe when they beat Alabama? Maybe Appalachian State when they beat Michigan?

Really had no idea anyone other than me even knew they had a big game this week.

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11-14-2016 , 01:52 AM

#41

Holliday

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Quote:

Originally Posted by GoldenBears

Believe it or not, Sagarin has Notre Dame at 40th. All six of their losses are by 1 score.

Well I just checked, so I guess "not". Gotta expect that after the bar trivia thing, though.

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11-14-2016 , 09:57 AM

#42

pvn

Guest

Posts: n/a

It's out there, google for SOR or "strength of record"

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11-14-2016 , 10:09 AM

#43

Nicholasp27

27th level thinker

Join Date: Aug 2004 Posts: 85,712

Does this help? Doesn't have formula but gives odds for all values 0 to 20

http://www.bettingtalk.com/win-proba...pread-nfl-nba/

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11-14-2016 , 10:19 AM

#44

BiiiiigChips

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Join Date: Aug 2006 Posts: 7,480

http://www.pro-football-reference.co...x/win_prob.cgi

Also this is a good read if you wanna do this kind of stuff on your own:

https://www.amazon.com/Mathletics-Ga.../dp/0691154589

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11-14-2016 , 10:22 AM

#45

dkgojackets

DKGOAT

Join Date: May 2006 Posts: 86,120

Quote:

Originally Posted by Heroball

LSU couldn't beat Wisconsin. Not seeing how they win any P5.

not sure what is stupider about this post, the fact that somehow losing once means they could never beat them or the fact that wisconsin is better than everyone in the pac and big12 anyway so it means nothing logically even if the first point was true

hit the bricks

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11-14-2016 , 10:31 AM

#46

Eltbus

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Remember when everyone said the same thing last year then they went like 9-2 in bowls destroying everyone. That was great

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11-14-2016 , 10:39 AM

#47

Heroball

temp-banned

Join Date: Sep 2016 Posts: 9,402

I'll take Washington, USC, Colorado, Washington State at evens vs. Wisconsin. Wisconsin's rarely winning the PAC; B12, um okay, I'll concede that one.

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11-14-2016 , 12:10 PM

#48

flabucki09

old hand

Join Date: Jan 2010 Posts: 1,619

Quote:

Originally Posted by Heroball

I'll take Washington, USC, Colorado, Washington State at evens vs. Wisconsin. Wisconsin's rarely winning the PAC; B12, um okay, I'll concede that one.

But Ohio State, m*ch*g*n, PSU, Nebraska and most years MSU would almost always win.

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11-14-2016 , 12:22 PM

#49

Booker Wolfbox

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1. Alabama
2. Everybody else

EZ game

Seriously, though:

1. Alabama
2. Clempson or Lousiville
3. Ohio State or Michigan or Penn State or Wisconsin
4. Washington or WVU or Oklahoma

If several of the 1 loss teams lose again this will get verrry interesting.