I couldn't figure out why Bama's chance to go undefeated was so high (10.7%) but then I looked at their schedule and saw that they don't play Louisiana Monroe this year, so that explains it.

I was also curious about how they and Ole Miss were so high

while I'll give Bama credit for the V Tech game, FIU, N Texas, and Chattanooga at home are amazingly easy. Plus, they lucked out with S Car and Tenn at home and @ Kentucky as the opponents from the East.

The numbers for Ole Miss are pretty intuitive actually. They have pretty much the easiest SEC slate imaginable. They draw South Carolina, Vandy, and Tennessee from the East, and they get Alabama and LSU both at home. And in non-conference, they play Memphis, SE Louisiana, UAB, and Northern Arizona.

So, Iggy, here is the ACC expected conference record:
Atlantic
Clemson 5.20 2.80
FSU 5.16 2.84
NC ST 4.03 3.97
Wake 3.20 4.80
BC 2.96 5.04
Maryland 2.80 5.20

Coastal
V Tech 6.27 1.73
G Tech 5.09 2.91
UNC 4.99 3.01
Miami 4.49 3.51
Virginia 2.51 5.49
Duke 1.30 6.70

To turn this into a mediocre distribution, just use BINOMDIST function in excel with the probability of success being the # of expected wins over 8.
Here is Clemson:
8 3.19%
7 13.73%
6 25.87%
5 27.86%
4 18.75%
3 8.08%
2 2.17%
1 0.33%
0 0.02%

Still, that won't help with handicapping the conference title race that much as it truly only works monte carloing the season. That's just too much work for me, especially with incorporating forecasting error rates and looking at tie breakers. I'll work on that for next year in my spare time for fun.

Wazzu with a 0.66% chance of winning 8 games, LOL. Ouch.

Is there anyone more ****ing ******ed than Jagodzinski? Piss away a damn good BC gig for an NFL HC interview when you don't know the basics of running an NFL offense.

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com...t-nfl-offense/

That if WVU meets an SEC team in the BCS championship game, they will lose.

FWIW, I wasn't really trolling. You said 5% MNC, you really did neglect to account for post season. Even if WVU is 50% in the BCSCG (lol), you're at 2.5-3%.

<3 Chip Kelly

Scroll down to the "Even Gambles Calculated" section, I'm hoping for some aggressive fourth down play calls from Oregon tonight. Actually I'm hoping Oregon's offense is so good that they never face a fourth down, hehe, but in the absence of that, well...

Nah, if they make it there they are def winning. WV never chokes when the pressure is on.

freaking sweet

I want to see him going for 2 up 7 with 6 minutes to go in a game.... I'm still not sold on the going for 2 when scoring a TD down 8 in the 4th qtr.

I'm saddened as this means the Zooker will be falling even further behind.

woohooo... 10 minutes away

South Carolina starts the toughest schedule in the country

I love middle of the pack major conference matchups

Speaking of two-point conversion situations, one that pissed me off at the SOU game last Saturday (NAIA FTW, great warmup for real football), was when we scored with 4:51 left in the fourth quarter to take a 32-28 lead, and our coach decided to go for two. Presumably he wanted the six point lead so that if they scored a TD they would still need the XP to take the lead (and it's only about a 92% shot in NAIA, not the 98-99% shot it is in 1A), but after a failed conversion that TD puts us down 3 instead of 2, and a FG ties instead of winning. This matters more, right? You should be kicking here, and I was correct to be mad? Or am I just crazy?

wow did you jizz your pants when he became head coach? biggest college stathead i know gets a stathead for the coach of his team.

Big 10 missing.

I agree completely

trying not to flood with all those numbers right now... Big Ten doesn't start tonight
well, IU doesn't count :P

yikes... I have the Gamecocks only winning 2.2 games in-conference... that's pretty shocking since I have them #48 overall. SEC is goot!

KICKOFF!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

What was that pussy **** of the whole teams shaking hands. What is sports coming to? This is football damnit. That's worse than the high school basketball team that wanted to outlaw booing

erin andrews!!!!

whoa, where'd wisdowm cube go?

also,

Craig James is already pissing me off. Didn't take long.

So when is ESPN gonna have a secondary channel with an EA spy cam going during the game?

WOW, nice hit!!!

nice job fullback... lol

not one threat downfield... same old Gamecocks

sloppyyyyyy