Quote:
Originally Posted by Jack of Arcades
Also, keep in mind that I don't thionk any advanced stats even take into account hitter strikeouts. These stats are designed to maximize correlation to team RS (and future team RS) so if including strikeouts would actually make it more predictable it would.
Yes, but the metrics
do include things like singles, doubles, triples, and homeruns. These are all things that happen when you don't strikeout. What you are saying is that A roughly equals B where:
A: .307/.404/.546 with 98 BB, 92 K
B: .307/.404/.546 with 98 BB, 132 K
which is true. But if hitter A starts striking out 50 more times season he's not just going to exchange 50 fly outs and grounds outs for 50 SOs. He's going to be putting the ball in play 50 fewer times, and losing about 15 hits. Even if you assume that none of those lost hits are HR, the new player B will look something like:
A: .307/.404/.546 with 98 BB, 92 K
B: .281/.384/.513 with 98 BB, 132 K
50 points of OPS is not trivial.