People were constantly doubting them all the way through the season, they still all ended up doing well

Also see: Colin Kaepernick conundrum thread

if that's the case then so do luck and RG3

its not about doubting them at this point. It's about seeing what opposing D coordinators can do with an entire season of tape this offseason. Kaep and Rustle were brought into great situations, and they were very successful on very low usage. They are very unlikely to suck, but they are likely to hit a wall early in the year when it comes to performance. Kaep is most likely to struggle having lost carbtree

yes RG3 has to prove he can still stay healthy. Luck has the least to prove having shouldered the load of a terrible defense, mediocre offense, and very high usage

nice save

Of 47 NFL QBs since 1970 who've thrown at least 233 passes in their rookie and sophomore seasons, the average sophomore increases his ANY/A by about 0.67. The standard deviation is a little larger than that, eyeballing it at about 1.





source

ANY/A 2012:

Schaub: 6.47
Wilson: 7.01
RG3: 7.47
Kaep: 7.54 <- didn't make 233 passes, and not a true rookie
Luck: 5.66 <- surprising

For Wilson and RG3, they'd have to run about 1.21 (Wilson) or 1.67 (RG3) standard deviations below the mean expectation for their ANY/A next year to equal Schaub's 2012. It's not preposterous, but it's about 11% for Wilson or 5% for RG3. This neglects injury concerns for RG3, granted. But, I guess Luck is a favorite to have a worse ANY/A than Schaub's 2012, so there's that.

I just think Kaep is a serious candidate for regression this year. Rustle is less likely, but I'm leaving the possibility open that defenses figure out how to take advantage of his height

what could he possibly be regressing from? not counting the packers game he averaged 5.9 carries per game as a starter. he had 240.6 YPG as a starter which was 16th in the NFL. the WR depth is better than it was for most of his reps last year even with crabtree out. this is his first offseason getting first team reps and harbaugh/roman offenses have never been about overwhelming you with the QB

its mostly Crabtree. Huge loss. Very underrated imo

All 4 of these guys may regress just because the league catches up to them a little bit. Luck stands the least chance of this since his offense is the least gimmicky. CK probably second, Rustle and RGIII are most likely. All but Luck are such athletic freaks though that who knows.

i definitely agree crabtree's both a big loss and underrated, but i also believe if davis does line up at WR the 9ers receivers are MUCH stronger now than they were during the super bowl push

The Seahawks used the read option (including play action out of the read option) less than 5 plays per game or so. The read option is a wrinkle, not a gimmick, and it's certainly not a pillar. Even if it gets "solved," the Seahawks don't rely on it in any way.

Here are my Top 10 QBs in the NFL for 2013 only with injury risk included:

1. Aaron Rodgers
2. Russell Wilson
3. Peyton Manning
4. Tom Brady
5. Drew Brees
6. Colin Kaepernick
7. Robert Griffin III
8. Ben Roethlisberger
9. Matt Ryan
10. Andrew Luck

SortByAFeverDreamIHad

Where's Vick?

Cam Newton no love

Oh ****. Knew I'd forget somebody. Cam should be 7 or 8 on the list. As for Vick he's only about league average in pure value, but with Chip's offense I would expect him to put up Top 10 numbers.

I wouldn't. Unless you mean top 10 number of concussions.

tbf Big Rape is the only person i have a problem with on that list

This is more or less what I think of when I think of Schaub. It runs consistent with what your saying imo. Did they draft any QB?

Can't argue with any of this, pretty great list

man, what a travesty to have an avg to slightly above avg QB. Woe is texans fans...

lol hey buddy I suffered through the lean years.

Vick needs a GOAT O-Line to stay healthy. I am convinced he's playing concussed like a quarter of the time with how much he's failing to read the defense, even more than before he went to jail.

vick is like roethlisberger, hes always going to be dinged up because of his freelance style. He doesnt need an elite OL to be good tho, dont forget how many injuries the IGGYL's had at OL last year. Any team that goes the entire season without their starting LT is going to have a lot of problems