Jones completed 19 straight dinks, tying some record os. That was their running game, as opposed to actually running into that stingy run defense

Sounds pretty basic with a 40 second play clock.

I guess they could have called the final TO and drawn the equations on the white board.

Going for it is probably the right call, but if Folk hits that FG, and he was pretty damn close, there is still a decent chance NE wins. If they go for the 4th and miss, there is a 0% chance they win. With a rookie QB in his 5th game, I don’t hate the decision. Especially after what happened on 3rd down.

Going for 4th down there probably benefits more from taking time off the clock than the chance Folk does not convert. I'm not going to work out the #s but simply getting 3 zero yard gains and trying 53 yard FG with 0:00 is not a bad result.

In today's NFL 55 secs and 2 timeouts with 4 downs is an eternity. And umm, their QB is pretty good.

Oh yeah, did I mention their entire secondary is out? Almost the whole thing.

Winfield, Davis, Murphy-Bunting, Dean....4 of 5 starters...Mac completed 18 straight at one point.

Decision A: Kick, miss gm over. Hit, gotta stop Brady from getting 3 with time

Decision B. Go for it, miss gm over. Get it, get to melt clock and get easier FG as well as have clock completely on your side.

It isn't even close.

Folk had hit 36 straight before that miss.

Anybody who thinks BB, who punted from the TB 40 in the 1st half (on 4th and 2?), was going for 4th down there needs to re-evaluate.

I'd say it's the correct call at 56 seconds or whatever it was. You don't automatically win if you make the first down. You could make a first down, then turn it over. You could get sacked. You could have a holding call. You could gain a couple more yards, but still miss a 50 yarder.

I'd say the calculus of Brady marching back down should not even be a consideration there. There's 50-some seconds left. At that point the only decision is what gives the best chance to take the lead. Their kicker hadn't missed in over a year. Seemed reasonable to me and I'm no Belichick fan. Probably close to 50/50.

first time watching the NFL?

I would guess the win probabilities something like:

FGA: Make it (40%), stop Brady/TB from FG: 35% = 14%

4th down try: Successful (35%), kill clock and make shorter FG (70%) = 24%

70% seems a bit high for a median 50 yard attempt in the rain, discounting offensive penalties or sack.. Still, better to go for 4th down. But almost no chance BB was doing that.

You're giving Brady a 65% chance with 50 seconds and 2 TOs? That seems way high to me. I'd give it more like 45%.

I also think the odds of making the FG, and also the odds of converting on 4th and 3, are both higher (prob around 45%/50%).

So then at 50% FG, 50% getting it on 4th and 45% TB FG

How isn't that a clear go?

Also, I don't think this is being said enough....

TB'S ENTIRE SECONDARY WAS OUT AND MAC HAD COMPLETED 18 IN A ROW AT ONE POINT IN THE GAME, lol

Sherman off the couch at 33 played like the whole game

1st half was more defensible imo, O-line wasn't holding up well

2nd half, TB pass rush was getting gassed and they lost another DB. Folk hitting the post is probably something like his 95th percentile result given the conditions.

Ehh, they just had that long drive for a TD followed by driving on that possession. TB's secondary was starting to break down and since it is end of half then keeping possession is worth more.

NE played a good game on D tonight but TB did have a lot of drops, Brady missed throws, they should still be playing the game as if they are dogs from a game theory perspective as well.

I'm not sure if someone answered your question but just watch "The Brady 6" on youtube and you will get the answer.

Basically, he was clutch in college after given the opportunity and sort of had the "it" factor of winning big games in college and played for a big time University. Usually those guys even today get drafted somewhere in the draft. The miracle isn't that he was drafted, it's probably that he was ever even able to showcase anything at a top University level aside from being a career backup. He was lucky to get/make that opportunity happen at Michigan and he made the best of it.

Not taking into account there are 50 second left after the attempt makes absolutely zero sense
Of course that calculus should be a huge consideration there

also have to take into account the Patriots having one if not the best secondary's in the league and up to that point they kept the Bucs fairly in check.

Under normal weather conditions I'd lean FG from that distance with a rookie qb against a good defense, considering your defense and time remaining with the way these guys can kick them these days but it's certainly a close decision. In the moment while watching I thought the rain would add a reasonable drop off in % on the kick from that distance but I really have no idea how rain effects the ball on a kick. Their kicker clearly didn't lack distance on that attempt as it appeared it would have been good from even 5 yards+ more on that attempt.

Most WP% models I've seen on twitter have it as not even close, and the main variable those likely aren't factoring in is how dusted Tampa's secondary was.

Patriot's next 3 games:
@ Houston
H v. Dallas
H v. Jets

2-1 is likely, but not guaranteed - this is the same team that lost to the 1-3 Dolphins. If you want to put something on 3-0, I'll be very happy to take that action.

I still think they finish with 8 or 9 wins, though 6-11 is a realistic possibility.

Yeah, 8-9 sounds right but with more fragility to the downside than upside being a team that gets less value from sustainable QB play. Henry Anderson solid DT out for the year now, injuries piling up.

If they go 2-1 next 3 games with wins over the bad teams, BB will be 9-13 since TB left but 4-0 vs the Jets.

It sounds like you are arguing they made the wrong call.



The very first one I pulled up when I googled it showed that the FG attempt was the correct call from an ESPN source.

As I said I think it's a close decision. I think the real reason it's argued so heavily is just looking at the numbers from the tweet above it shows NE had less than a 43% chance of winning the game either way. That's what is so difficult with the results oriented crowd after he attempts the FG and misses it. They were expected to lose the game at that point based on the model no matter what decision they made and it's difficult to grasp that considering they had the ball in the territory of a make-able FG with a 4th and short decision.

https://twitter.com/ben_bot_baldwin/...69298271526914

I don't think ESPN's math is correct, also I don't think these WP% models are factoring in ease of driving for a FG for the top QB's. They had the Packers at 22% after SF scored last week.

Again, TB's entire secondary was out and Mac was moving the ball fine.

Betting markets wise, I think NE is probably like -120 to win the game if the FG gets drilled. If NE gets the 1st, probably be like -300. And I don't think the chances of the conversion happening are much worse than the FG.

Don't even think this is close, I'd legit need that to be like a 44 yarder to not want to test that secondary in that spot, although that part is more just my opinion.

to get kicking the FG to 42% win probability you have to assume you stop brady with a minute and 2 TOs 70% of the time and make the 56 yarder in the pouring rain 60% of the time or stop brady 60% of the time and make the 56 yarder 70% of the time. either way it's wrong.

Those are one person's numbers. Here's some other analysis

https://www.nfl.com/news/week-4-s-bi...lts-rewarded-f

I see, and those numbers make sense as to why it would be wrong to attempt the FG. I'm in disagreement that Folk only makes that FG 45% of the time. I'm assuming he and I assume BB feels he is making that FG attempt at a much higher percent, closer to the 60% to 70% range a few posts above.

I like how your model also has the conversion rate on 4th and medium at 52%.

whatever at this point but I think it's clear people can paint any picture they want to with statistics. (wtf is ball tracking data)