now that we're deep in and my team is coming together, i'll try to lay out my vision.
overall philosophy:
basketball is all about the offense trying to create as big a mismatch as possible between the eventual shooter of the basketball and the defender of that shooter, and preferably in a fashion that is easy and quick to reproduce, and in such a way that if someone is passing the shooter the basketball, that it be a relatively low risk operation.
in the modern nba, there are a few approaches to easily getting mismatches:
- iso ball handler + shooters
- push hard in transition / get a lot of TO
- iso low post + shooters
- elite shooters + off-ball screens
defensively, teams have tended very hard towards switching screens as often as possible, and putting strong help defenders on non-shooters. having at least 4 strong defenders on the court at all times appears table stakes for making a deep playoff run.
my approach:
once the premier stars were off the board (the last went at pick 9), i felt it was necessary to take some risks in order to have equity to win at some point. in all honesty, my team will probably be below average, but i feel that ive got maybe a 25% chance of winning a championship.
the goal with my squad is to have multiple ball handlers with 1-2 strong threats to iso vs. a good matchup, be able to put out a lineup that can switch everything if need be and generally disrupt passing lanes or be able to effectively double in case team had weak spots (say your robersons of the world).
in terms of size, my team profiles great:
Code:
height / wingspan / standing reach
spencer dinwiddie: 6'6 / 6'8.25 / 8'7
markelle fultz: 6'4.75 / 6'9 / 8'6
jayson tatum: 6'8.25 / 6'11 / 8'10.5
rob covington: 6'7.5 / 7'1.75 / 8'10
john collins: 6'9.5 / 6'11.25 / 8'10.5
wendel carter jr: 6'10 / 7'4.5 / 9'1
strategy
in the half court offense, the dinwiddie / collins PnR is my primary "boring" weapon (not necessarily the clutch play starter, but what we can grind out in the regular season).
my expectation is that fultz, tatum, and convincton will all be dangerous enough shooters that the defense has to try to play another offense 2v2. should the defense be out of position, or attempt to defend one of fultz or tatum with a sub-par defender, its easy to get that matchup going. most teams in the league dont have 3 effective wing defenders, so its easy enough to get 1/3 potential ball handlers into a PnR.
defensively, my general approach is to switch most action and try to aggressively disrupt passing lanes to ensure that the offense has to waste a fair amount of time before a good situation arises. in the event i play a strong post player, WCJ is tasked with playing the post D position. this is a bit of a risk as well, but his size and athleticism suggest he should be capable at this role.
potential weaknesses:
defensive rebounding. fultz remaining incapable of playing NBA basketball. big man D is a question mark, both in terms of managing the rim and 1on1 D on the perimeter. fultz and tatum might not hit 55-60% USG on offense (combined), in which case we'd struggle.
upside:
tatum has as good a chance as any of being a top tier player once lebron is diminished or gone. fultz has been working with the same shooting coach as tatum and bamba, and i estimate he has a great (50+%) of being a top 30-40 player within the lifetime of this draft, with a strong chance of being top 20.
from the rest of my team, i just expect slow improvement over the next 2-3 years. i'm very unlikely to even be above average until year 2/3, so year 3 is the year im targetting for a deep playoff run. by then, ill have several 23 year old players in a league where most of the elite players are now 32+. lets see how the dice fall.