Hmm I think you're right. Adjusting for strength of opponent after the championship games it's only 5.7 to 5.76, and 80th vs. 84th. Guess I had assumed the gap widened the last two weeks just from what I'd seen. Appears it did the opposite. I only ever look at adjusted YPP outside of single-game comparisons, though sometimes I factor in the prior year.

tOSU has been significantly better against the pass though (6.2 to 6.9, and 61st vs. 101st) which in general is considered more important. I got Georgia Tech and Louisville as the only two P5 teams worse against the pass than Oklahoma.

Still the same problem betting Ohio State though; they have the talent to just suddenly *be a lot better* like they were supposed to, whereas Oklahoma was never supposed to be anything else.

Bama beats tOSU by 10ish most of the time but the point is that they’re probably not “miles ahead” of them like they are pretty much everyone else.

Bama
UGA
Clem
tOSU/Oklahoma

GAP

Florida/LSU/Washington/West Virginia

GAP

Michigan/Northwestern/Notre Dame/Auburn

Last time bama was favored by 10 over osu they won with the 3rd string qb.

People that are calling it a joke that Oklahoma got in are ****ing trolls I feel.

Obviously ND is a joke and they should never get into the dance unless they beat a top 5 team in the country during the course of their schedule, but all I saw on fb/reddit was 1.Bama 2. Clem 3. UGA 4. tOSU like it was written in stone tablets from God himself.

The correct four teams got in. Uga had their playoff play in game already. Lost. Osu got clown stomped by Purdue. You can’t leave Nd out going undefeated. I hate Nd and it’s hilarious that they got killed but no power five team going undefeated is ever getting left out

I think it ultimately boils down to what you think the playoff should be.

Option 1 is a series for the teams that had the best results that year. Notre Dame went undefeated. Therefore they deserve to be in. Oklahoma won their conference and avenged their only loss. Therefore they deserve to be in.Ohio State had a worse loss than Oklahoma so they are left out. Georgia didn't win their conference so they are left out. This option gives you Alabama, Clemson, ND, and Oklahoma.

Option 2 is a series for the teams that over a large sample would be the best. It's more predictive than based on results from the year. Georgia lost more games than ND and didn't win their conference like OU, but would be favored against both teams on a neutral field so they deserve to be in. Notre Dame went undefeated, but they had no great win and a bunch of close wins against mediocre teams. Meanwhile Oklahoma had better wins and actually played and won a conference title game so they should be in over ND. This option gives you Alabama, Clemson, Georgia, and Oklahoma.



Personally, I go with option 1 and so I agree with you that ND deserved to be in there despite being obviously worse than some of the other options. I understand those that pick #2 though.

Michigan was a top 10 team heading into bowl season. Gotta call that a really nice win I feel.

I know the feeling was they were fraudulent after OSU beat em a million to a little and they turned out to not be very good at all after Florida embarrassed them, but you're probably right that they deserved a little more credit heading into bowl season for that one. I still think option 2 gives you OU over ND but it could probably do the other as well if you preferred that one. The key difference of the two options being the georgia inclusion imo.

I'm pretty sure ND could reach some sort of agreement with the ACC where they could play in the CCG against their best team should they be ranked in the committee top 10 or something. ****, that might even get a few eyeballs and asses in seats for the ACC CG.

I mean, since they're largely an ACC team now anyway.

That would be cool. Avoid getting a 7-5 Pitt in there.

I'd be in for that

**** off how about join the conference

There's money in it for you.

I agree and do think that it should be a selection of the teams that had the best year and accomplished the most. however, it annoys me that sometimes the committee goes for the best teams/power rankings rather than accomplishments. it should be consistent.

i'm obviously biased this year, but if it wasn't Pitt and say, syracuse, i still would rather syracuse went to the acc CG rather than any scenario in which ND went unless they were playing a full acc schedule.

i, however, am in no doubt that the Acc would possibly agree to something so stupid.

If you want to play in the conference championship game, join the conference

last year the ACC CG was an 11-1 Miami vs an 11-1 Clemson.

So make it "If the 2nd best division winner *isn't* in the committee rankings" or something. There actually are similar down-list tiebreakers for some of the conferences to stack the deck for someone with *any* chance of a payoff getting into the championship game (though I think, hilariously, it's in like the Sunbelt's criteria).

Having 2 teams who have been to the championship a few times, and whose fanbases are >2300 miles from the stadium seems to be taking its toll on ticket prices:

Put a national title game in a place that dgaf about football and especially college football, what could go wrong.

The Bay Area is expensive as ****. It’s 3000 Miles away from both schools and plane tickets aren’t cheap. We’ve seen this matchup how many times now? It’s getting old. Plus, I’ve heard that stadium blows ass. No wonder tickets are cheap.

Sparty still hasn't recovered from 38-0 a few years ago. They ran hot to get in and got waxed too.

That's the thing with the ND talk, UCF had a better argument (at least they blasted Pitt like Clemson did instead of just barely win like ND did). Ball State by 8, Vandy by 5, Pitt by 5, honestly the only thing impressive was blowing out Syracuse.

Shame they don't play Army anytime soon (I did not know Army almost beat them twice in the 90's, no wonder it's like every 6 years now).

Yup. Stop putting games in Levi's Stadium. Everyone knows it sucks.

Being a new stadium doesn't mean it's a good stadium. Whatever the **** it's called the White Sox play at and Edward Jones Dome (oh, excuse me, The Dome at America's Center) are perfect examples.

So tilting that the best bet I've ever made isn't gonna pay off.

I made the biggest wager I have ever made on Bama to not win all of their games by 5.5 or more at even money BEFORE the Auburn game.

And they're just favored by 5 over Clemson :/

So I got to freeroll Auburn (won by 31), Georgia (won by 7 despite being out gained by 51 yards) and Oklahoma (won by 11)

Anyway, also have the SECOND largest bet of my life on the field to title against Bama ranging from +160 to +220 or something absurd, and also have another $1k on Clemson +9.5 vs Bama future line just for fun.

Needless to say, I will be hedging, so if anybody wants Clemson vig free, get at me

They ought to play the championship in the top seeded team's home stadium. Bama fans would mortgage their houses to rebuy $1000 tickets at $2000 from Auburn fans.