Wisconsin might win, but they're currently priced at 30% on Pinnacle, TCU roughly similar.

So the OU / Wisconsin combo is only 21% likely to happen

I have been hammering a bunch of different laughably inefficient lines for the last month, so I don't necessarily think these are reflective of reality, but Bookmaker is pricing meaningfully real possibilities for either Oklahoma or Clemson to make it in with a loss.

TCU is currently +230 (juice free line obv even lower) and BM is offering "Oklahoma to miss the playoffs" at +350

Miami is currently +306 (juice free line obv even lower) and BM is offering "Clemson to miss the playoffs" at +450


And those spreads are so wide, that the ACTUAL probabilities they're implying are even higher than +350 and +450

(In other words, OU is -265 to win the game, but -500 to make it, or Clemson is -360 to win the game, but -650 to make it... but obviously you can't profit from the absurdity in that direciton)

Ahmmon Richards, the wide receiver I referenced above, tore his knee up in practice this morning, will undergo surgery later this week, and is now obviously out for the Clemson game as well as whatever bowl Miami ends up this year. (That would be the Orange Bowl, if/when they lose to Clemson.)

http://www.miamiherald.com/sports/co...187091878.html

This means that Miami's three most talented offensive players are out for the rest of the year. I would think that the betting line might go up even more in Clemson's favor now.

Can we just please have this.....

1 v 4 Clemson - Wisky
2 v 3 Auburn - Okla

and throw in a Jan 1 game
tOSU v Bama as a teaser game just for ****sandgiggles?

If your CFP wish comes true, Bama would play Miami in the Orange Bowl.

Damn

I can't seem to find the formula for the bowl selections. I know each bowl has options if their tie-ins dont materialize. Just can't seem to find a definitive site.

http://www.collegefootballplayoff.co...609884945.aspx

Who is this clemp of witch you speak?

Ok here's an idea. We all know what the problem is: the committee would love to sneak Alabama in there, but there's just no way to justify it.

But what if, for this year only, they simply expand the pool to five teams, and sneak Bama in there at #5? Then they obviously give clemp a bye as #1, and have 2 vs. 5 and 3 vs. 4, then go from there.

Now some of you might have noticed that there's a little problem in the next round, where there are three teams, and it doesn't seem completely fair to give clemp another bye. But that's just a detail, they can work something out for sure.

What do you guys think? This could work!

The committee does not search for ways to put Alabama or Ohio St in.

This is easily solved, just make the top 4 ranked champions auto-bids into the playoffs. Then the conference champ games become your 8-team playoff. If a 7-5 team luckboxes the conf, then they'll be left out as they are ranked lowest.

This is basically what we have now, except they let Ohio State in last year

Bump.

So OU is in. Shocker!

3 spots left.

A room full of active athletic directors and a few NCAA members dont want the teams with the highest ratings and ticket sale potential in the play
offs. Its college football, its all about money. Esp this. They may exactly "look" for ways to put these kind of teams in but they damn sure will if they get the slightest chance. First we heard conf championship realllllly matter when they left TCU out which was a joke. Then meh they dont really matter just getting the four best teams. Just like non confrence schedules will only ever matter for teams who arnt the big dogs. If bama/ohio st/clemson/auburn had wiskys non conf schedule no one in that room would give two ****s

every year there are points in favor of the team A that gets in and points in favor of the team B that gets left out. this doesn't mean that all of the things for team B "don't matter" it means on the balance they matter slightly less

Guys theres a reason 7 of the 13 members are either current or former athletic directors/presidents of a unv/current or former NCAA member. You think they are the best group to identify the four best/most deserving teams in the country? They about ratings/ticketsales/$$$$ more than they ever will give a **** of actually getting it right. Which is the entire reasons its the only sport ever to have 13 guys decide which teams should play in the playoffs.

College basketball has a selection committee bro

Almost the same thing

They may not be the best group to decide top 4 but no way are they discussing rigging in favor of better ratings

out of curiousity, which scenario out of putting in alabama or ohio st is the "see its obvious they just care about ratings!" move?

what parts of the current rankings and their implication for the next ones (acc/sec winner in, ou in, wisky or bama/osu in) do you think prove they arent basing it off of football?

I'm not saying it's "rigging", but seriously lol if you think money does not factor in their decision making process. The first year if it was Texas instead of tcu in the exact same situation they are never ever ever getting jumped by anyone. But tcu had no shot.

The OU win combined with an Auburn loss and Bama is done before nightfall.

This game does not matter for bama. The ou and big10 champ game are the only ones that do. They could still get in with a Ohio state win. I think they would honestly but it's going to be close

Yeah I don’t think Alabama needs Auburn to win