This. Totally this. Beal, CJ, Bledsoe, etc were the picks to make in the 2nd round imo.

The thing with Beal/CJMac are that there are, imo, still quite a few question marks. I wouldn't be penciling BB as a favorite to play more minutes than Iguodala next year in this theoretical draft world because Beal is close to Gallo in terms of injury history. Last year could have been an outlier in terms of everything, health and effectiveness. He had pretty similar numbers throughout the course of his career and then it all just shot up all the sudden, perhaps they drop back down and he spends next season hurt as well, who knows.

CJ is a much safer prospect, but he's also a worse player. He's an extremely (and I mean extremely) gifted offensive player, but his impact is similar to Kyrie's in that it doesn't necessarily elevate his team's offense as much as one would think, and when you factor in their defensive inefficiencies they become the type of players who get overrated here (but less than in a casual world) imo, scorers who don't have a major affect on the offense while actively hurting the defense.

They are ranked 49th and 87th in RPM respectively, and I don't think that's a fluke.

Given decent talent & fit on the rest of each team, in a playoff series, do you think that Kawhi & Rubio would beat LeBron?

im saying i think Lebron and Jerian Grant might still be > Kawhi and Rubio, so its just not clear who the actual #1 pick is.

as it worked out, you can draft Lebron + a ~$20mill player and then fill out the rest of your team with role players and i'm not sure that any other team can easily beat that.

Give me THON
$2,684,160

He fits my team well.
Lowry
Hood
Caldwell-Pope
Covington
Maker
Vucevic

I can play THON with Vuc. Or I can play 4 out around either of them

Are you saying that Iggy will be better than or equal to Beal and CJ next year?

Jerian Grant was a really bad pick, theres going to be like 35 PGs taken in this draft... hes not a top 35 PG and even though hes cheap, you could have gotten him or someone like him in the last round

I'm not sure, but I'd definitely take them over Iggy for the Kawhi team... It's much easier to argue that they will, plus I feel that they are guys people like more in general.

I think I was indirectly arguing taking them over Paul Millsap, which is what I struggled with (PM or BB) in round 2. In the end I felt that PM was just a way better player at this stage in their respective careers.

Maybe. I looked at all the PG's in that price range and you'd be surprised at how much they all sucks. They're all absolutely awful at at least one side of the ball. Jerian grant has positive ORPM and DRPM (17th amongst PG's overall) after him I see no PG's making so little I'd want.

But then he's costing 1.7M he's not exactly supposed to be good, I could have gotten him later (big maybe) but if I didn't I'd have no secondary ball handler and only awful options to look at

All rookies
Anybody not KD Labron Kawhi taken before those 3

Your last sentence is reasonable and a very legit critique. My only real comeback would be that Iggy has a great physique and a skillset that should age well(hes "athletic" but not dependent on it, plays great team basketball, etc.). Moreover, I would point out that I hate when people make claims about "your best/second best player has to be able to do ______ or else theres no way you can contend(often times the blank being an offensive/usage-based skillset)." They are silly vacuum statements imo.

I feel as if we're going in circles on the other points though. So far the convo has gone.....

critique: "Iggy looks bad out there. I think hes a bad pick."

me: "Sure his game may not look pretty, but hes always outperformed the eye test(according to advanced metrics). Take a look at his numbers from last year- hes was still really good."

critique: "Yea but his teammates were so good that it renders those stats useless. I would rather trust my eye test."

me: "Ok, but he also rates great in stats that attempt to account for strength of teammates like RPM. Moreover Klay didn't rate great, so why didn't the great support cast help him?"



Given that Iggy was 3rd in RPM four years ago(so he has a history of doing things that may not be apparent to the eye test) and given that Klay Thompson didn't rate that great this past season(#43 in the league), Iggy ranking #26 in the league in RPM last year needs to be addressed by the "Iggy sucks due to my personal eye test" crowd. At the very least provide some meaningful data to the contrary instead of re-stating your dislike for Iggy over and over(not you in particular TQA, just everyone in general).


I mean, you call it a bottom 5 pick in the draft yet theres no statistical evidence given whatsoever. Its just you(and others) stating the opinion of Iggy sucking as fact.

You listed 4 guys who were all $10mil more expensive, and none of them are good perimeter defenders. When you already have Lebron/KD/Kawhi, you don't need more offense from your second round pick. Guys like George Hill are fine second options to a transcendent stud. Their DRPMs from last season:

Iggy: +1.52
Beal: -1.04
McCollum: -1.87
Otto: +0.44(decent, but he was clearly behind Beal/McCollum for consideration imo)

With Kawhi as my #1 option, I didn't want to spend $10 million more on a bad defender just because he makes a good 2nd option offensively.

I think Rubio, if surrounded by other shooting (probably the worst or tied for the worst shooter on the floor), is a guy who can play NBA basketball against the elites like the Warriors due to his incredible defensive and passing ability (he could be a passable shooter this year). He's a "guy that can play and not kill you" in a playoff series.

Jerian Grant is not.

So yes, I'll take Kawhi + rotation player vs Lebron + replacement level player.

I don't think it's close. I think Kawhi vs Lebron next year will be close. Lebron is a year older and Kawhi should continue to improve. Father Time is undefeated.


I almost went Thon, seems like a good gamble for some improvement

am here still deciding

I'm here too is assani is he we can get a pick run in

and Bledsoe: -0.64


I can understand not liking the value of Iggy at that spot(it was def bad in those terms, I can admit that), but all I see are people suggesting bad defensive players who aren't big enough to guard SFs. I just don't see that as the way to build around a transcendent superstar. I think for a Draymond Green/Rudy Gobert team those would be great picks though.

I think Assani's team (minus Baynes, sorry Assani) is the definition of a whole>sum team that fits MUCH better than the other than the Steph/KD teams, and a little better than the LBJ one. I mean I can actually see how Assani's team would generate an offense that increases the value of the other guys, and I see the opposite in the others.

Fit is extremely important, I think a lot of us are losing sight of what players' strengths are, and overall are being too simplistic when it comes to evaluating fit.

He is not a good shooter/offensive player (even if you think his mid 30% from 3 is passable, his 3.2 per 36 is 290th in the league is on par with noted marksman Rodney Stuckey, PJ Tucker, and Raul Neto and his 1.8 FTA/36 is on par with Randy Foye, Luc Richard Mbah a Mute, and Justin Holiday) which hampers your number 1 picks offensive ability. If you think passing is so good he's still an offensive positive, that might be true, but if those stats don't tell you that his 40th in the league ORPM might be a little misleading... well I don't know man. You're blind to it and arguing because you just love to do it and I'm not sure why. #stats

Even if he was average at O last year and his D was good, he's going to get ~13% worse next year per an aging curve which you recently cited. Or do you have a reason that he's not applicable to that aging curve?

AND even if all that is true, he's stone dead to play 2000 minutes this year. And you could have gotten someone who was a favorite to play 2500 minutes this year with that pick.

Igoudala's offensive season last year was off the charts ridiculous...

He had 11.2% usage & averaged 7.6 points per game (10.3 per 36).

He hit 65% of his 2 point shots, including 76.7% from 3 feet in, & 54.5% from 16 feet to 3 point line. 19.5% of his 2 point shots were dunks. 42.7% of his shots overall were 3s.

Advanced statistics will show him as an extremely efficient offensive player (62.4% efg) because of the extremely good looks he's getting, & the fact that he seems to actively be declining to take anything but the extremely good looks, as evidenced by how few points he's scoring.

This past year was by far the strongest in all of these categories in his career, & I don't think advanced statistics will be able to properly bake the team effects into the rating of his offense. He does not appear to be creating his own looks...70.3% of his 2s are assisted, & 92.2% of his 3s are assisted.

Defensively, Iggy still seems quite good, but I feel like part of the allure of building around Kawhi is that you already have a guy who can defend the other team's top wing?

Not sure what my conclusion is after all that...

Can anyone advocating Lebron as a better pick than Kawhi please show their work. Heres the Kawhi argument:


Lebron 2016-17 regular season: 27.0 PER, 61.9% TS, +8.42 RPM, 12.9 WS
Kawhi 2016-17 regular season: 27.6 PER, 61.0% TS, +7.08 RPM, 13.6 WS

Lebron 2017 playoffs: 18 games, 30.1 PER, 64.9% TS, 4.3 WS
Kawhi 2017 playoffs: 12 games, 31.5 PER, 67.2% TS, 2.8 WS

Kawhi: going from age 25 to age 26
Lebron: going from age 23 to age 33

Kawhi: $18,868,625
Lebron: $33,285,709




Why is Lebron better????

I think Kawhi/Durant/LeBron/Jokic is the correct order for the top 4 picks...

ill just take zubac 1.3m

with mozgov gone, should improve. need a guy off the bench to provide some sort of defence around the rim

pretty meh on offence but he will do.

on ball
rondo
lebron

off ball
ennis
bradley

bigs
horford
zubac

Lebron is not the better pick than Kawhi Assani, not sure anyone is arguing that?

@everyone else... Iggy had an 11% usage because everyone else on his team was miles better at scoring the ball. Assani oversells his offensive impact, but that doesn't make his case any less sound. His career-best efficiency is obviously a function of his low usage, but does he become any less valuable if he's creating more but his efficiency dips quite a bit, like in the low 50s? Iggy having an 11% usage means he, you know, actually knows what he's doing.

His offensive impact is fine, maybe barely negative, and this is because he's a high IQ guy who most importantly moves the ball. I mean it's easy for me to see that team generating a decent offense because that's what their entire team does, from George Hill to James Johnson, they all are very good at moving the ball, driving, and working to get a good shot. Their offense won't be elite, but their defense is easily the best in this draft so it doesn't have to be.

in a league where super teams arent a thing, lebron has the highest chance to win, he is easily the most valuable player. plus intangibles. fwiw i was taking kawhi without much thought, but now ive had time to process, I think KD/LeBron are 1/2 with leonard 3.

so in response to me asking you to "show your work" and showing mine, you re-state your opinion with no work shown whatsoever?




Pick upcoming, excited for this one as hes def one of "my guys", and my writeup will include a prop bet offer open to anyone!

I feel obligated to respond to this since I mentioned the 11% usage thing. Obviously it's what's best for the team. The question is, can he actually carry a higher usage successfully at this point in his career? If he can't, & he's not getting great looks, it's somewhat of a problem.

The last time his usage was higher than 13.3% was in his age 29 season when he was on Denv---oooooohhhhhhh. His usage was 18.8% & he had a career low TS% of 52% (my previous post should have said TS%, not efg fwiw). & that was 5 years ago.

Dunno, my initial reaction when I saw the pick was wtf, but I've come around to it probably being ~ok.