What is the least you should charge for a low draw when there are two low cards on the board and you have the high completely locked up?

Example: You have AA2K in the big blind with the king and deuce of diamonds. Preflop, the small blind bets the pot, you repot and the small blind calls. The flop comes A79 all diamonds. The small blind checks to you.

You have the nut flush and top set but no low draw, and suspect that the player in the small blind a)has a23x, and b)will never fold if they have the nut low.

as much as they will pay.. some people will call pot for a low.. others will fold when drawing to no high. I normally bet around 2/3 of pot, unless i'm pretty sure they will call more.

The maximum allowed.

Buzz

In the spirit of encouraging mistakes I would normally bet as much as possible and hope opponent does something stupid.
Anyway it's rare that you have a situation where opponent clearly has no shot at the high. Normally you end up wanting to bet big enough so that even if villain has a marginal chance at the high (say 2 to 6 outs) it will be a mistake for them to call.

For a second let's assume that your opponent has NO chance at high. There is currently P in the the pot. He has (at most) 16 outs for low, and there are 43 unknown cards (3 on the board, 4 in your hand, and we know 2 of his cards). Depending on your hand he may only have 14-15 outs but let's just say 16.

So, his chance of making a low on the next card is 16/43 = 37%. He'll only get half of the pot when he makes it, so it's only correct for him to call .37P on the flop - if you bet .37P and he calls, he'll break even. Anything more than that is a mistake, and the more you bet, the bigger of a mistake it is for him to call, right up until he folds and acts properly. You don't mind too much if he folds though.

i like the .66 to 1.00 pot range myself.
with the exception that i'm usually in the micros... in early position i can sometimes min-bet or check with the hopes that either opponent bumps it up, then i shove.
NO FRIGGIN' WAY would i EVER do this @ .25/.50 and higher.

[Given 2 identical scenarios, identical limits (.10/.25 @ stars and
tilt), i'd be more prone to try this @ tilt]

It's around 3.25:1.

Hi Rusty - Good reasoning, but 2-3-4-X is not at all beyond the realm of possibility, and if so, Villain may have as many as 20 outs for low.

If Villain does have 2-3-4-X, perhaps as A-2-3-4, or 2-3-4-Q, then after the flop of A79 Villain will make low in two draws 780/990 or roughly four times out of five.

But let’s say Hero holds AA2dKd, Villain holds 234dQd and the flop is A79, all diamonds. Villain gets scooped 25.4% or about one hand out of four and splits the rest of the time.

The important thing is Hero always wins the high half, but Villain doesn’t realize that fact, especially if Villain has something like
Q, 4, 3, 2. If Hero bets half of the pot after this very favorable flop, planning to bet the whole pot after the turn, Villain may be hard pressed not to call. But Villain only makes low after the flop with 2,2,3,3,3,4,4,4,5,5,5,5,6,6,6,6,8,8,8,8 – a total of 20 cards. The other 21 cards are unfavorable for Villain.

How much will the traffic bear? In other words, how much is Villain willing to pay in order to see the turn. As long as Hero bets at least half the pot on the second betting round, Hero should actually like to see Villain call. Assuming Villain folds when Hero bets the flop after the turn, Hero wins an extra 0.5P 21/41 and only gives away 0.5P 20/41.

By making it seem feasible to Villain to continue, Hero gives away half the pot twenty times out of forty one times.

Thus 0.5P*20/41=X*21/41.
Solving, X = .5P*20/21 or 10P/21.

In other words, Hero has to make his bet greater than 10P/21 in order to give Villain unfavorable odds to continue.

That’s very close to half the pot.

Thus in case Villain holds 2-3-4-X, 2-3-5-X, or any three low ranks aside from ace and seven, Hero has to bet close to half the pot to give Villain unfavorable odds to continue.

And then if Villain continues, even though Hero will be giving away half of the original pre-flop pot twenty times out of forty one, Hero expects to net more money if Villain does continue, rather than folds.

So I want to take back my original answer of betting the whole pot. In order to play properly by the odds, Hero must bet at least half the pot, and might as well go for whatever Villain is likely to call.

I like half the pot or sixty per cent of the pot.

Buzz