1)

BTN: $1,000 (100 bb)
Hero (SB): $1,604.50 (160.5 bb)
UTG: $4,073.95 (407.4 bb)
BB: $1,006 (100.6 bb)
CO: $319.75 (32 bb)
MP: $6,253.72 (625.4 bb)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A A 4 Q
UTG raises to $35, 3 folds, Hero calls $30, BB calls $25

Flop: ($105) 8 7 K (3 players)
Hero checks, BB checks, UTG checks

Turn: ($105) 7 (3 players)
Hero bets $80, BB folds, UTG raises to $342

UTG is an aggressive player, whose only bet-sizing is pot. Thoughts on how to proceed?


2)

CO: $2,740.75 (274.1 bb)
Hero (BTN): $3,909.78 (391 bb)
BB: $2,167.76 (216.8 bb)
SB: $3,170 (317 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BTN with T J T J
CO folds, Hero raises to $20, SB calls $15, BB raises to $80, Hero calls $60, SB calls $60

Flop: ($240) Q J 2 (3 players)
SB checks, BB bets $178.50, Hero calls $178.50, SB raises to $952, BB folds

SB is a tight (vpip 20ish even short-handed) but strong player. Thoughts?

1 - I don't think that an aggro player would check that flop with a set or even 2 pr with a low draw. That being said, he doesn't raise the turn with just the 7. So he really can only have a bluff or 87 imo. I think I call and hope the 2 or 3 comes so he can bluff again

2 - Curious on your flat on the flop. I like it, since you have blockers to your turn scare cards and gives someone a chance to bluff. Just wish it wasn't the tight player. Calling is out of the question. No turn cards make you feel good. You aren't that big of a fav over a wrap.

hand 1 i agree with what predator in that it looks like 87 or bluff. I think i am raising/getting it in or folding.

If you just call and 3 - 8 comes off hes prolly gonna pot anyway with a2 putting you in a tough spot. scared of a287 here.

Hand 2 i think i'm slmost always puttting in a raise. I like a smallish raise here and from what u say about villain possibly hero folding. but not sure i could ha. Obv raising to get it in v bb

interesting hands imo

Some more info:

1) UTG was steaming a bit and his VPIP was roughly 40. I agree that he never has a set. Not sure if he'd raise with a seven as a semi-bluff to take control of the hand. Bottom boat is possible I suppose, but feels unlikely.

2) I didn't even think much about raising on the flop (BB:s c-bet I mean), as we are so deep. Just puts you in a very awkward spot if you get action (and it's likely to end action). I'm sure SB would never raise with bottom set here. He's pretty careful about not spewing, but would definitely semi-bluff here with a pair+wrap at least (to be in good shape vs other draws).

I'm sure he doesn't check that on the flop.

ye prolly not

as played i kinda think it's closer to a fold than anything else and i don't really like calling for sure.

mayb chk/calling turn and river is best against an aggro villain. Hoping that the river isnt a low and he bluffs.

Huh? If he's on effective nuts or bluff, then you let him keep bluffing ; if you bet then you isolate yourself against the part of his range that is beating you

and what u gonan do when a lo card comes and he pots? his bluff ranges includes a2/a3 almost always

u gonna call in hope of a chop? i said a small raise so hopefully he'll spew if he is bluffin...

dont say huh? though..its kinda annoyin..was just my opinion

1. FOLD
2. COMMIT

I'd lead flop hand 1. Were you planning on c/r UTG?

As played, given your read, I think he would bet any 2 pair on the flop so I don't think the boat is likely....maybe 7 plus a2. Either way the raise doesn't make much sense so I think you can get it in.

Given read. FML Fold. You're either slightly ahead of a wrap or totally crushed and you are deeeep.

I'm pretty sure you should switch numbers

1) Was planning to c/r flop, but it got checked through. I don't know what to say about his turn raise, except that it's weird, as in my experience he can't have a hand he is representing. Calling and hoping he'd bluff again is possible, but our call looks so strong that it's very unlikely he does that. Calling also allows him to catch a split (or a scoop, if he has a seven), so I think shoving for value/protection is best, even if villain always folds. Note that if that's true, our hand doesn't even matter. Hero shoved and villain folded as expected.

2) I guess it's a classical slightly ahead or much behind -situation. Given the reads I folded, and I think with this exact hand it's the best play vs this player. If we even had a gut-shot, backdoor low or two backdoor flushes I'd hate pushing less. Note that we also have TT, and T is a card in his every draw, so him having a draw is less likely.

Villain (who is friendly with me) afterwards told me he had

Was my initial question as well.

The rest echoes my thoughts on the hands precisely.
1. almost assuredly ahead. call and allow him to bluff a bricked river or get it in on turn.
2. either slight fave or crushed. curse under breath and begrudgingly fold.

Note that I play _much_ lower, so should probably ignore my advice.

1. I call planning on calling _any_ river. Assuming he has a better high, or a better low often is assuming a lot. Shoving turn sets fire to all his bluffs (unless he's real crazy). Shoving also makes him fold any flushes he thought were good (if he ever checks them on flop). Yes, you sometimes call twice and he has like T834 and the river was a T. It's poker, some hands you lose.
Being worried about the low on the river seems bad, the only 3 really bad cards are the 4s ... even with a 6 or 5 we aren't going to lose the low the majority of the time, and any 3 or 2 gives us the low enough I'd probably shove river. Dito an A but for the high.

2. I hate these hands, and I hate calling the 3bet with huge effective stacks ... on the flop I don't see how a tight player is calling+calling 3bet with worst position with many QQ hands ... but I'm probably folding.

I will also note that I've seen people playing higher stakes on the PLO side advocate shoving in situations like #1 ... AIUI because:

1. Shoving this for value allows you to bluff raise here more.

2. Calling seems stronger than raising, in most cases.

3. Raising turn is more of a deterrent for agro. villains than calling twice.

...but #2 is not necessarily true in this spot and isn't as well understood anyway at lower stakes. Also, almost nobody is 3bet bluffing here at smaller stakes.

I appreciate your analysis no matter what stakes you play.
Agreed, if we call turn we call any river (except maybe 7). But the thing I don't like about calling is that some of his bluffs (A345 for example) have almost 20% equity vs our hand, so just ending it right here by raising has value. Also I don't think he bluffs river a lot, since it looks pretty obvious we are not check-folding to a high card.

Two really interesting hands.

There are far more cards that brick off than make a split possible. Also, the 2 or 3 might give you the best low or make him overplay A4 himself and continue bluffing. If he only folds or calls when ahead then call/call has to be superior to allow him to continue bluffing. I'd even call a 7 river btw. Just less likely he raised a 7 when 3 out there.

If you think he can call off a 7 (maybe A7L if he ever raises a 7) or worse flush (possible to raise turn but unlikely to call) then I'd shove. I assume they think you are snug tag rather than crazy? If I had a crazy image I'd probably shove just because he can talk himself into something stupid sometimes.

Edit: You never really said his stats for raising utg btw. Like is he lag crazy. Or just tag aggro. Is he a whale or a regular? I mean depending on the type of player he is he might not have many 7's in his utg openr range. He might not play kkxx. He might be lag but check the flop with bare kkxx rather than bet.

Hand 2: Not sure why you min raise the button this deep with players, I think that's a really bad general strategy. I like the flop call.

In theory I'm never folding the flop to a check raise though. Middle set + position + bd flush draw peel it off and hope for a blank & see what he does on the turn. Fold on an A or 9 possibly a Q...he might even check a Q.

In reality the inner nit in me might fold when he pot squashes the flop

I know someone said you had these back to front, but I think you are closer to nailing it based on what people actually do. Hand 1 is just such an unusual bluff spot for anyone since you can have the boat. Therefore it would be dumb to raise either a 7 or a flush. I think people can check sets and two pair on this board with so many draws out. You'd have to be against a crazy opponent for anything else to be right.

2) Sets are hard to make! It's just a cooler if he has QQ. You are ahead of everything else. So yeah commit is right even this deep. Just sucks when he has it.

I disagree here. You have two of the wrap making cards, which increases your equity considerably versus a wrap.

Also, if you plan to peel flop shove over/ call a turn shove on any non A or 9 then all other turn cards are bricks and you are a you are a massive favourite over a wrap.

Also, if he has QQxx he might check down on an A or 9. Which saves you money the times you just call the flop.

I digress from the discussion of the hands slightly--sorry-- but i ask,
can you call villian's hand a wrap if it doesn't contain a Ten?
isn't it a gutshot without a Ten --AKQ9 or KQ98 etc.

with this said,and if it is correct, then hero has blockers to villian having been dealt a wrap, but still just considering 2 card combinations there are more KT combos possible then QQ combos or AA combos. (and the same number of T9 as KT).
*yes, less of the 4 card hands that contain KT or T9 seem as playable as the 4 card hands that contain AA or QQ but the preflop action and the depth of stacks i think makes sb's range rather wide

I think you understood my points, but just in case:

- Still plenty of wrap combos that contain Tens for villain even when we have two of them.
- my point was that we now block hands from making wraps, which increases our equity.

I have written a little program that will calculate our expected value if we shove all-in over villain's flop raise and flip over our hand allowing villain to play perfectly. Against a raising range which consists of sets and wraps you have a +ev shove:



But I can understand the fold. The table is big stacked and it can be profitable to keep a stack in order to be able to capitalize on opponent's blunders later.

On the above, when you make it AQQ and AKT I assume it's like putting AQQ* on pro poker tools? I think you can widen 223 to 2236 2246 type hands too. Hero did min raise.

Sure, but if he never bluffs the river if he calls (that was my feeling, but of course I might be wrong), calling just allows him to catch a split some 20% of the time.
Possible
1) I don't understand how he could be ahead.
2) "If he only folds or calls when ahead then call/call has to be superior" is not necessarily true.
Yes, I actually forgot we have AA. Not sure if I agree with the latter sentence. If he decides to bluff-raise, it's good to have the seven, right?
No, he's a competent player, and I imagine he might be folding his whole range. His raise is weird because he must realize that I can just play back at him. I don't know what he thinks about me, but I'm not overly aggressive, more of the tag type, but I'm surprised if he doesn't realize that I can smell bs on that raise.
Kinda laggy, steaming, hates calling down. Reg, def winning player. Might or might not play kkxx, but would never check it behind on the flop (do people at some stakes do that btw? why?)