In a common scenario, a pot has grown to a medium size (15-30 Big Blinds) by the River, when a double scare card hits. For example, it brings both a new low and a flush/straight on the board. A player who has the nuts in one direction will often then either pot-bet or shove for 1.5x to 2.5x pot (whether or not their hand in the other direction is any good).

From your experience (as a caller and observer), what kind of bet gets called most often by an opponent who has a decent, but non-nut, two-way hand?

It seems that certain players are more suspicious of the 150% pot shove than they are of a pot-bet and are more likely to call. Does it make a difference if the overpot bet is not a shove?

I realize that mixing up my betting patterns is necessary in the small world of NLO8. Still, i need to reconsider how to maximize the value from my hands.

I would say it depends lol

No, seriously, just pay attention to how much they pay off against other players, or test them out yourself. Watch if they are apt to call oversized bets or small bets. I think its that simple. You can only really know this over more than 100-200 hands I think.

Sometimes you don't even need to know that. If you can work out what a guy's hand strength is relative to the community cards you can bet the amount that you think he will call. For example:

Poker Stars $0.10/$0.25 Pot Limit Omaha Hi/Lo - 6 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

MP: $16.60
CO: $64.35
Hero (BTN): $47.85
SB: $24.20
BB: $29.65
UTG: $7.85

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is BTN with Q A T 8
UTG calls $0.25, 2 folds, Hero raises to $1, SB calls $0.90, BB raises to $4.25, 1 fold, Hero calls $3.25, SB calls $3.25

Flop: ($13.00) Q 2 Q (3 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets $6, SB folds, BB calls $6

Turn: ($25.00) J (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $10, BB calls $10

River: ($45.00) 7 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $10, BB calls $9.40 all in

Final Pot: $63.80
Hero shows Q A T 8 (HI: three of a kind, Queens)
BB mucks 8 A A K
Hero wins $60.80
(Rake: $3.00)

I know what he has. So I bet fairly chunky but relatively small compared to the total pot size and he called all his money. And lo and behold, suprise suprise, he had aces. However if I had bet the pot on every street, he is never calling me down, that bet size would be too scary for his hand.

Right. I know that it depends. That's why i was trying to get a general impression, which may be impossible to answer. As an example of someone who got a big juicy note after his call:


Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1 No Limit Omaha Hi/Lo - 9 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

SB: $116.75
BB: $25.00
UTG: $188.15
UTG+1: $87.50
UTG+2: $53.00
MP1: $85.50
MP2: $40.00
Hero (CO): $58.00
BTN: $131.20

MP2 posts a big blind ($1)

Pre Flop: ($2.50) Hero is CO with A J 4 5
1 fold, UTG+1 calls $1, 2 folds, MP2 checks, Hero calls $1, 1 fold, SB calls $0.50, BB checks

Flop: ($5.00) A 4 2 (5 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG+1 checks, MP2 checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($5.00) 4 (5 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG+1 checks, MP2 checks, Hero bets $5, SB folds, BB folds, UTG+1 folds, MP2 calls $5

River: ($15.00) 7 (2 players)
MP2 checks, Hero bets $52 all in, MP2 calls $34 all in

Final Pot: $83.00
MP2 shows 9 8 6 5 (HI: a pair of Fours; LO: 6,5,4,2,A)
Hero shows A J 4 5 (HI: a full house, Fours full of Aces; LO: 7,5,4,2,A)
Hero wins $40.00
MP2 wins $40.00
(Rake: $3.00)

----

He risked $34 for the chance to win $6 with his third-nut low. He had the worst possible high hand. Unfortunately, most people aren't like that.

I think it all has to do with your image at the table and exactly who you are up against. The regs I tangle with usually don't call my river shoves w/o a strong 2 way hand out of fear of being quartered. So I'm finding that pot sized bets on the river are better for extracting value with 3/4ing type hands. I like shoving the river for scooping pots against tight players that otherwise would have been a split. Against the bad players, shove the river all day for value. Of course you have to mix it up to avoid giving out too much information about how you play.

I don't know too much about calling river overbet shoves since it isn't a big part of my game and my only NLO8 experience has come in the last couple months or so, so I'm learning. I definitely don't call when there's a good probability I'm being quartered, like on A5T6K board, I'm not calling with 2367. Im definitely interested to hear thoughts from the more experienced NLO8 players.

How is this a NLO8 hand?

You aren't giving your opponent a very tough decision by only betting pot in that situation. Ignoring rake, an opponent calling a pot-sized bet and getting quartered only loses 25% of the original pot by making the call. E.g., if the pot and bet are $100, your opponent loses $25 by making the call.

Compare this with making an incorrect fold during hands he'd win 50% of the pot, which would cost him $50. He has to be pretty damned sure he's being quartered in order to make that fold. Therefore, except in extreme situations where there's a flush and four wheel cards on the board, i'm going to bet more than the pot in this situation to extract more value from my hand.

Which way gets called most often, pot sized or more than pot sized?

Interesting question. Good question. (One I wonder about too). Seems very particular opponent dependent. Betting the one-way nuts for maximum fold equity is fairly standard, especially with the high nuts, but also with the low nuts. But how much will an opponent with second-second stand for? Good question. I don't know.

How much will I stand for with second-second. I can't even answer that. For me "it depends."

Exactly!

I'd say tend to push the max if you want an opponent to fold. But against certain suspicious type opponents, maybe just a pot sized bet is better.

Buzz