Still a relative PLO8 noob, wanted to make sure this turn push is a reasonable one consider I got reraised PF. No reads as I just sat down.
Villian covers

Bovada .2/.5 PLO8 6max


UTG folds
UTG+1(Hero) raises .17 with A422
Folds to BB
BB raises to .53
Hero calls

Flop is 496
BB checks
Hero bets 1.08
Villian calls

Turn is T
BB checks
Hero bets ~3.25 and is all in
Villian calls

River is Q

raise pre
raise/push flop
shrug
rebuy

Hero raised pre. Hero led flop and wasn't re-raised so couldn't raise/push.

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Nice starting hand... lacks high card strength and has the lousy low pair of deuces, which is a liability in my opinion, but otherwise nice... certainly playable.

OK.

Decent flop for your starting hand
OK

Ugh. Now you should figure you probably scoop with any heart. (Not quite true because Villain could split low).

You also have the pair of deuces, the four, and the A. Figure you might win high with a deuce or an ace, but a deuce or an ace might enable low for your opponent.

So figure you probably scoop with any heart or four, - a total of 10 cards (full pot outs),

win high (but lose low) with deuce or ace (so figure those are probable splits, although as the cards lie, they any deuce or ace would be a scooper for you),

and win low (but lose high) with any non-heart trey, five, seven, or eight. - a total of 5+12=17 cards (half pot outs),

And figure you get scooped with any non-heart nine, ten, jack, queen, king, or six, a total of 17 bricks.

So add it up yourself! You probably split with 17 rivers. Those half-pot outs are neutral when you only have one opponent.

You probably scoop with 10 rivers.

But you get creamed with 17 rivers.

So does it look to you like shoving on the turn is a wise decision or ****ing stupid?

If your opponent shoved, you'd be getting better odds to call, but you simply don't have favorable odds to shove yourself. You don't have favorable odds to initiate fresh money into the pot.

So long as your opponent has the courage (or stupidity) to call, you're favored to lose. (And you did lose... seems like justice to me).

I'm assuming you want the blunt truth.

Buzz

preflop & flop are standard.
on turn i propose to shove any heart, 4, A or 2. otherwise check back in position. normally you have over 60% equity on flop and about 40% on turn, so checking back is best option, you won't be getting any value from hands that are worse.

I really appreciate the blunt analysis Buzz. I'm only starting to understand that fold equity doesn't work the same way in PLO8 as I was used to with Hold'em. Reraise PF, followed by c/c flop and check turn as weakness. I thought maybe he was drawing to a bare low and wouldn't call a PSB. Clearly not how this game works. I'm only 2 weeks into PLO8 and appreciate the feedback.

is this a $50 table or a $5 table??

i do see you wrote the bb is ".5" or 50cent, but then you are sitting with less then $5 so its unclear.


you possibly (likely?) don't get paid waiting for your flush to be made before betting it, and you do want to fold out hands that have equity against your actual hand, but might not appear to the bb to be that strong (ie. overpair to board w/2nd nld, or overpair to board and gutshot or AA w/o nld, etc.).

given how your small stack gets divided into bets here, I'd say nothing wrong with your turn bet. but a case (i suppose) can be made for saving the bet for the river

You don't have FE in this spot against typical micro villians. So check behind on turn, then jam on all blank rivers.

IMO this is one of the spots that separates low level plo8 from nlhe/plo so much, and it's one I screwed up a lot too at first. When we shove the turn it's because we are still on a pretty big draw and thus. want folds from marginal hands, but still have equity from all the hands that call. The idea, from nlhe/plo, is that we are losing money vs. TT/99/66/44/T9 but we make up for that when 6x/77/88/9x/(maybe JJ/QQ/64) etc. fold on the turn.

The problem is that in plo8 villain will often call the turn because he thinks he's also drawing (and might actually be). Thus. by shoving turn you are often "forcing" villain to play correctly. Given BB a stdish. 3bet range that didn't like this flop too much (but isn't folding) you are going to see a lot of A2xx/AA5/KK43/QQJT/etc. ... and it's doubtful any of them are folding. At which point you are value betting pot on the turn with bottom pair ... and you don't need to click the spoiler to guess how badly that'll work out for you.

The above is all assuming villain isn't thinking much and is a std 0.02/0.05 player.

If villain thinks about it more, wtf are you repping? A992/A662/AT92/A962/A872 maybe AT62/ATT2. Now think about your bluffs if you are bluffing this hand, it's pretty close to A2xx/A53 which is lol more combos.

What I'd do:

Opening is fine, depending on how many people at the table and how many callers I expect/etc. I might open limp instead. Calling the 3bet is meh. You have a lot of A2x hands UTG and this isn't a strong one, and your flush draw has a dead card. If BB is 3betting a lot though you can't fold.

On the flop bet small (1/3 - 1/2 pot).

When villain 3bets pre. and then checks the flop it's to do one of three things: 1) x/f (or rarely x/r) because I have air now (and/or always did). 2) x/r (or rarely x/c) because I have a monster (and/or always did). 3) x/c (or rarely x/r) because I have a marginal hand, don't want to bet it, but can't fold.

Betting small and getting raised is fine, you just get it in on the flop and have two cards to hit. You have the best hand against some of the hands that villain would perceive to be the best and you are destroying #1/#3 type hands (and you have more fold equity on the 3bet, with a small initial bet, vs. both of them).

Betting small and getting called is fine, villain has mostly defined his hand and you have position ... ez game. The biggest danger is if a non-heart 8/7/5/3 hits and villain bets pot into you. When this turn hits you can either bet small again, or just check back. The biggest danger is villain x/r turn. If you bet turn then you _can_ bluff this river, but bet at least 2/3 pot assuming you'd be betting this with T9 (his marginal hands don't have draws anymore, so he can't call for that reason). You probably make more money in a vacuum by not betting river unless you hit (a low counts as a hit), but at a real table I'll sometimes do it anyway for the metagame.

I think you should add that analysis is relevant assuming villain never folds turn which I think is true considering all the circumstances.

Since we block A2 really hard, block AA and he's also supposed to bet majority of his A{A$l$w} and A2, A3+smth himself anyway I think range he c/c as 3bettor is mostly overpairs w/o low draw and w/o hearts (like illiterat said) which also means on a wet texture like this he would perceive our range as a lot of low(nut) draw hands maybe with some marginal high hands and won't be inclined to fold to a turn shove considering we didn't 4bet pre.

Thus I agree it may be fine to check back turn and shove turn with 2p+ for high and then just check how villain would adjust and would he at all or not.