Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 Pot Limit Omaha Hi/Lo - 6 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

MP: $99.90
Hero (CO): $72.25
BTN: $85.90
SB: $38.30
BB: $46.50
UTG: $62.45

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is CO with KK J 9
2 folds, Hero bets $1.75, BTN calls $1.75, 2 folds

Flop: ($4.25) AKJ (2 players)
Hero bets $3.50, BTN raises to $12.50, Hero calls $9

Turn: ($29.25) 7 (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $29.25, Hero ???

Ok, before we go into get it in or whatnot lets use some deductive logic... Rush, so no reads for me or villian. I open pre (pretty standard) villian calls. On the flop we have nut flush draw and 2nd set, so putting villian on AA or Q high FD reraise is a bit tough. So when i got raised here im thinking villian is rarely bluffing.

Ok, so I put him on pretty much QT with a backdoor draw or two. Being as I have nut FD and boat possibilities even if he has the QT I can make a call here (pretty standard).

Turn comes with no improvements, villian could have some sort of low draw but unlikely seeing how the hand played out. Villian could be on a sick bluff, but i highly doubt it here. I check for pot control and he bets pot. Now I truely believe he is rarely ever bluffing here since I pretty much have the nut draws.

Question lies here, do we call/raise get it in/fold here if we can pretty much assume villian is holding QT here w/one card to come?

If we flat what do we do if it comes lets say 4 or another blank after putting in $43.50? How would you have played the hand and do you agree with my logic here that villian is almost always holding QT? Thanks,

Jam the flop. You've got to have a lot of EQ against any Q10xx... except Q10AA. The only thing you have to worry about on this flop is a bad pair of aces that flatted you on the button.

I usually three bet AAxx but, if im deep and have AA98 or AA109 no suits I think about flatting based on stats/history. Even with all that said you have to get this in on this flop, if you don't why play the hand?

I see your point where we have EV verses exactly QT here on the flop but if he does have this then he is never folding the flopped nuts, and if he doesnt have QT what value are we getting by getting it in on the flop? Think he will get it in with JJ?

AAxx could be in his range, and I too limp or flat pre with AA89 type hands as well, but I dont see where he would raise with that being that he cannot have nut FD with it. So we are good getting it in against QTo and JJ only, and QT only marginally? Agreed?

"Why play the hand" - Well this senerio doesn't come about every time you play this hand. I play my hands situationaly and not robotically.

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi/Lo Simulation

600,000 trials (Randomized)

board: AKJ

Hand	Pot equity	Scoops	Wins Hi	Ties Hi	Wins Lo	Ties Lo
QT**	42.61%	242,695	242,695	3,462	50,752	0
KhKcJc9h	57.39%	331,424	353,843	3,462	0	0

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi/Lo Simulation

600,000 trials (Randomized)

board: AKJ

Hand	Pot equity	Scoops	Wins Hi	Ties Hi	Wins Lo	Ties Lo
AA**	65.51%	382,058	382,058	2,280	45,170	0
KhKcJc9h	34.49%	195,952	215,662	2,280	0	0

Although we have EV against a QT I still would prefer to pot control because he's never folding QT or AA here. So, to the turn we go...

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi/Lo Simulation

600,000 trials (Randomized)

board: AKJ7

Hand	Pot equity	Scoops	Wins Hi	Ties Hi	Wins Lo	Ties Lo
QT**	62.47%	365,028	365,028	0	78,200	0
KhKcJc9h	37.53%	215,425	234,972	0	0	0

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi/Lo Simulation

600,000 trials (Randomized)

board: AKJ7

Hand	Pot equity	Scoops	Wins Hi	Ties Hi	Wins Lo	Ties Lo
AA**	80.09%	472,034	472,034	0	69,005	0
KhKcJc9h	19.91%	110,991	127,966	0	0	0

As played... now what?

Pot control is interesting if you know what to do with it. Contrary to your question.

QTs and the like which get it in here then AAs but since you didn't winnow down the distribution and run it against the combined set it is hard to say. The nice thing is that on the flop the ones that you are ahead (QT) are probably more likely to want to get it in against you then the ones you are behind (AA).

FWIW you can have data on people in rush (one of your comments sounded like you didn't/thought you couldn't). In this spot knowing how often he called pre flop raises on the button would be huge.

I see your point on the flop (shallower yes) but I still disagree with getting 140bb in on the flop assuming villian has the flopped nuts or better, and possibly be hold some of our flush cards etc

Obv you can have stats in rush, I run PT3, unfortunately no info on villian.

Any double suited hand containing a pair of kings is in my voluntarily playable range. And I believe I can raise, or not, with any hand I voluntarily play.

Seems fine. (The lead bet for me, if I were playing your hand, would be $2.55, but I don't fault your $3.50). You only have one active opponent. He's not likely to have QT** or AA**.

Yikes! Did we bite into QT** or AA**? Other viable possibilities are JJ**, AK**, AJ**, a semi-bluff perhaps with hearts to the queen plus something else, or a bluff.

From Hero's perspective as a first approximation, I think it's about 2.2 to 1 that Villain has a better hand than Hero (QT** or AA**).
Here's my first approximation reasoning:

• There are, relatively,
  16+almost 3 = almost 19 ways for QT
  3 ways for AA
  1 way for JJ
  3 ways for AK
  6 ways for AJ

AA** is worse for Hero than QT**, but only a sixth as likely, something like that. Alas, Hero has one of his own outs (the jack).

Since it's pot limit, we can expect Villain to bet the pot on the turn and then again on the river.

The cost (implied) to Hero will be $9+$29.25+whatever Hero has left. In other words, since Hero has contributed $1.75+$3.50=$5.25 to the pot and has $72.25-$5.25=$67.00 left in his stack, the implied cost to Hero is $67.00.

If Hero continues, he'll be risking $67.00 to possibly win $78.25.
(from $67.00+$11.25=$78.25)

78.25X=67(1-X)
X=67/145.25=~0.461

Thus, assuming Villain is betting a bona fide hand, Hero has to win at least 46.1% of the time and I don't think he's going to win that much.

[first edit]Oops. I didn't notice that Hero has the nut flush draw too. I should have noticed that. My apologies for being somewhat distracted when I first thought about Hero's hand and the flop. I have to go back and look at this again, giving consideration to Hero's nut flush draw. I'll get back to this[end first edit]

[second edit] Hero figures to probably win more than he loses. And that changes everything. Hero should be happy to continue here. And even should be happy to get it all in here. (See my numbers in my second post below).

This is one of the relatively rare times I think Hero should fold after leading with a bet.
[second edit continued] This is wrong. Hero should be happy to continue here. And even should be happy to get it all in here. (See my numbers in my second post below).

Probably Villain has QT**. And if we were more or less certain Villain held QT**, we could take one off and only risk $9, hoping for a pair on the turn. The downside of that, aside from not at all being sure Villain doesn't hold one of those hands with an ace that would spell disaster for Hero if the board paired on the turn, is we might get stuck in the pot because of the size of the pot, drawing again on the river for the board to pair.

If we had top set here, I think we could continue.

With middle or bottom set, I think it's right to lead, just as you did. But then when the flop already enables a straight I think you have to fold if raised. In addition, in this particular case, there's a flush draw Hero doesn't have, plus a back-door low draw Hero doesn't have. (The flush draw and the back-door low draws are relatively minor considerations, but the possibility of Villain having an ace or two is a major consideration).
[second edit continued] This is wrong. Hero does have the flush draw, and that makes all the difference in the world. Hero should be happy to continue here. And even should be happy to get it all in here. (See my numbers in my second post below).

I think that's a mistake.[second edit continued] This is wrong. (See my numbers in my second post below).

Now I think Hero should fold.[second edit continued] This is wrong. (See my numbers in my second post below).

OK. I follow.

No, because of the possibility of AA** or AKJ*. You're drawing for the board to pair, but Villain could have a hand (AA**, AK**, AJ**) such that even if the board pairs, Hero could be screwed.[second edit continued] This is wrong. (See my numbers in my second post below).

OK. I follow.

I think you have to fold.
[second edit continued] This is wrong. (See my numbers in my second post below).

I think Villain is probably holding QT**. But there's enough of a chance he has AA**, AK**, AJ**, or JJ** that we can't be confident of winning if the board pairs.
[second edit continued] This is wrong. (See my numbers in my second post below). [end edit]
I haven't read the other replies yet.

Buzz

Please please never follow this. Bet folding is the worst line possible here.

Bet/getting it in is fine and I would recommend this for a number of reasons rather than calling. As played I guess call turn fold on blank rivers is optimal if he always has q10 although I am unconvinced he has q10 100 percent of the time here (although I wouldn't be surprised if he has it 80%+) and would probably get it in on turn.

I heavily discount aaxx as these 3bet a hell of a lot and am more inclined to say he has q10.

I don't like bet/folding myself. My reason is it's terrible for Hero's table image. But this is rush poker. Hero has no impression of Villain and probably no table image himself about which Hero should be very concerned.

But I (carelessly) hadn't noticed when thinking about this hand/flop that Hero, in addition to flopping the middle set, also had the nut heart draw. And I think that probably changes things.

I agree with you that Villain probably has QT** for the second round raise. I'll use your 80% estimation. I think that's close enough for our purposes.

But if Villain has QT**, even though it's rush poker, shouldn't we either give Villain some cards that go with the queen and ten, or are independently playable? I'll use two hands, AQT2 and KQJT, make them both rainbows, and run a couple of simulations. We also need AA**. I'll use AA82 so as to end up with 820 runs for complete simulations for all.

Let's split the QT** hands evenly and give each one 40%, and give the AA** hand 20%. I don't actually think Villain has AA** any more than AK**, so let's run AK82-rainbow as well.

For AQT2, Hero wins 449, ties 4, and loses 367.
For KQJT, Hero wins 442, ties 6, and loses 372.
For AA82, Hero wins 216, ties 70, and loses 534.
For AK82, Hero wins 572, ties 169, and loses 79.

Combining them all,
449*.4+442*.4+216*.1+572*.1=435.2 wins for Hero,
4*.4+6*.4+70*.1+169*.1=27.9 ties for Hero, and
367*.4+372*.4+534*.1+79*.1=356.9 losses for Hero.

I hope that adds up to 820. (looks like it does). At any rate, Hero figures to probably win more than he loses. And that changes everything. I'll go up and edit my previous post in this thread accordingly.

I agree.

I agree.

Apologies for my oversight.

Buzz

no problems buzz I am glad when we can have good debates about hands and feel free to point out any mistakes I have made as well.

Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 Pot Limit Omaha Hi/Lo - 6 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

MP: $99.90
Hero (CO): $72.25
BTN: $85.90
SB: $38.30
BB: $46.50
UTG: $62.45

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is CO with KKJ9
2 folds, Hero bets $1.75, BTN calls $1.75, 2 folds

Flop: ($4.25) AKJ (2 players)
Hero bets $3.50, BTN raises to $12.50, Hero calls $9

Turn: ($29.25) 7 (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $29.25, Hero raises to $58 allin
BTN calls $28.75

River: 2 (2 players, 1 allin)

Villian held the worst possible hand against me... AAQT
Luckily I run good

I flatted the flop looking to check check the turn and if not then get it in. I posted hand cause I didn't think I could find a fold here and I wondered if anyone else could knowing villian had flopped nuts here sooo often. But so since im never folding here I got all the money it in and made it on the river.

Thanks 4 the replies guys, GL at the tables!

Not quite the worst hand, but really close. This was still a jam on the flop. Just gotta watch out for people who will flat with bad plo8 AAxx hands imo. Congrats on a >200bb pot.

In poker if you have any +EV line you take it. Even if its only 51-49 in your favor. Although this assumes you are playing for the long term and are not playing above your bankroll. These and other factors may change your opinion on getting it in thin. OBV this hand on this flop vs. Q10xx is favorite, get it in.

And the "why play the hand" is more why play the hand if you are not getting it in on this flop. Notice:

I agree, I wanted opinions without giving away info. I never intended on folding this hand fwiw just wanted some feedback and thoughts. Ty for your comments.