So I decided to try the $100 tables. I want to see your opinion on this hand.

I KNOW FOR SURE that his check-raise means a set 99% of the time, so is my call here the best play even though I know I'm probably way behind? I don't want the other guy to fold obviously that's why I called.


Poker Stars $0.50/$1 Pot Limit Omaha Hi/Lo - 9 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

BTN: $83.40
SB: $251.10
BB: $82.75
UTG: $24.10
Hero (UTG+1): $121.90
UTG+2: $102.30
MP1: $58.00
MP2: $11.85
CO: $66.60

Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is UTG+1 with A 2 4 A
UTG calls $1, Hero raises to $3, UTG+2 calls $3, 5 folds, BB calls $2, UTG calls $2

Flop: ($12.50) T 5 K (4 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets $11.90, UTG+2 calls $11.90, BB raises to $59.50, UTG folds, Hero calls $47.60 ...


I suck at math, is this +EV or at least break even? Considering BB still has $20 left and there's the possibility UTG+2 calls?

Buzz?

Congrads on moving up to $100 max! Wow, that's a tough spot! If you put BB on a set 99% like you said, and if you are just as sure that UTG+2 will call, it's a really really close call IMO. Obviously, it's either call or fold, shoving doesn't have any fold equity, since BB is pot committed, and you don't want to scare UTG+2 away... I just ran a simulation, w/ pretty much the worst case scenario, as far as opponents' hands:


So you have decent equity, assuming you can get UTG+2 to call...

I know exactly why you bet... But perhaps sometime consider making a smaller bet or even a check in that situation. You want to string along a potential wrap draw, and try to keep a pot relatively small to give you a chance to outdraw a set. Though I do realize that if a 3rd spade hits the board, it will be very hard to get paid off... I don't advocate to play like this all the time, but maybe like 30% or so in a similar situation. But again, this is a really really tough spot for me, and what I wrote above, I don't feel all that comfortable with... But hey, in the worst case, it's not bad to have an image at the table as the guy who doesn't mind pushing and giving action w/ just a flush draw and an over pair.

If you did shove his raise and got UTG+2 to fold, here is one possible scenerio:


d'

what is he going to call with that isn't going to call a shove?

I don't like potting the flop, close to it anyway.. I just make my standard c-bet. Personally I don't like putting my stack in on your hand if you know the guy has a set. Obviously 2 low cards and you ship it, but with a bare flush draw and backdoor low ehh.

i like calling here to keep the other guy in. given the size of the pot and that BB started the hand with $82 im shoving otherwise. absolute worst case scenario HU you are like 30%ish which is fine with the money already in.

the real question is, why do you feel so certain the guy has a set? i think this is a ridiculous assumption to make. he wouldn't checkraise with KT and a lesser flush draw? how about a wrap and a lesser flush draw? if you're one of those 3% pfr guys and utg+2 sucks you should expect to get checkraised with even less than that (although i have no idea that you are).

as for the bet on the flop, not betting this flop is insane.

I don't have a problem w/ poting the flop a good percentage of the time, in a similar situation, cause at that point Villain has decent fold equity, besides actually a pretty strong hand. It's the C-R that makes this situation so tricky. If I was BB w/ KK**, I would have poted the flop, instead of getting cute w/ the C-R.... UTG+2 is most likely on some kind of a draw.

d'

I agree if Hero is 3%pfr and it's HU, no problem C-Rasing Hero, but when BB checked there were still 2 people behind besides Hero, and when he C-raised, 2 were still left.....

d'

I think how scary this board is he is c/r other things besides set like top 2 or ajqk or any wrap+ flush draw.Seems like any easy board to blow aces out of the pot being there is no low for backup.

Yeah I didn't like the pot bet either. If you think about it, a pot sized bet on the flop will scare most of the hands I want to get calls from, like JQ or AK or even backdoor lows (yes there are people that chase backdoor lows).

Nope it's not ridiculous at all. I've played enough PLO8 to know this play means a set almost every time. Maybe I exaggerated when I said 99% but at least in this hand I was sure he had a set. Sometimes you just know it.

I've never seen anyone make this play with a wrap or lesser flush draw. If the guy is not a maniac who's on tilt I immediately assume he has a set.

See above.

And how would they know I have aces? I made a pretty standard raise before the flop, I could have a lot of hands.

I guess your right they don't know u got aa but in general this flop doesn't hit many peoples preflop raising hands.

If you simplify the math and say that BB is all in (if you just shove the 20 more) the pot is 115 and its 65 more to you. Your odds vs a set HU are about 35% so with the pot odds being close enough to 2:1 I would just shove. If the other guy comes along thats fine also and maybe you get to take down a decent side pot the times you dont beat BB.

I might check taht flop. If you are betting than you should do so knowing what you want out of it and what you are going to do to specific action. I would also shove if you are playing it. I don't see any reason to call instead of raising. Interesting spot.

I would check the flop a fair amount of the time.

Your flop c-bet is way too big. I would bet something like 8, if things develops as in original hand, then you has much more reasons to call check-raise (more money behind).

IMHO, BB range could include not only sets, but TTP with str8 or flush draw. Need more info on him.

But i would rather not bet this flop multiway in Hi/Lo, because I'd like to see lo card on turn before commiting big part of my stack. Big pots are for big hands.

By playing this way you avoid trouble but forfeit all those small pots you can take down immediately. Hero's bet is at least a semibluff and not a mere c-bet. I like your idea to bet a little bit less though.

I've avoided responding because the math is not simple.

To simplify things, assume BB has a set with a poor or losing low and the only way for Hero to win high is by making a flush without the board pairing or if the board pairs, quad aces or aces full (which may lose to quads here, assuming Villain has a set) .

You really like to have some implied pot odds when you draw. But the trouble is Hero doesn't have substantial implied pot odds here because BB only has ~$20 left.

There's $95.80 in the pot with possibly ~$20 more to come from BB, who just check raised. The cost to Hero is $47.60, but if UTG+2 folds, it's probably more like $115.80 in the pot with a cost to Hero of $67.50.

So if UTG+2 folds, Hero's getting implied or reverse implied whole pot odds of about 1.72 to 1. If UTG+2 doesn't fold (and I don't think he will if Hero calls), then Hero is getting even better implied pot odds.

If Hero calls, he's in for the next two cards, so I'll figure on the basis Hero not continuing if the turn pairs the board, but seeing two more cards if it doesn't. From Hero's perspective, assuming BB has a set and no blockers counterfeiting his chances of having the board pair,

7/43 cards pair the board and Hero folds at a cost of "only" $47.60.
~7/43 cards make Hero's flush and Hero gets BB all-in.
15/43 cards give Hero a low draw, and BB goes all-in.
14/43 cards are blanks, and BB goes all-in.

Then after the turn
7/43 Hero loses $47.60.
7/43*10/42 the board pairs and Hero's flush loses to a boat. -$67.50.
7/43*32/42 Hero's flush holds up and wins $115.80.
15/43*12/42 Hero makes the nut low and splits the pot with BB.
15/43*7/42 Hero makes a flush on the river and wins $115.80.
15/43*23/42 Hero misses and loses $67.50.
12/43*7/42 Hero makes a flush on the river and wins $115.80.
12/43*35/42 Hero misses and loses $67.50.
2/43*41/42*1/2 Hero makes a set of aces or aces full and wins $115.80.
2/43*41/42*1/2 Hero makes a set of aces and loses to a Broadway. -$67.50
2/43*1/42 Hero loses to quads. -$67.50

Something like that, I'd guess.

+7/43*47.60
-7/43*10/42*67.50.
+7/43*32/42*115.80.
+15/43*12/42*24.15
+15/43*7/42*115.80.
-15/43*23/42*67.50.
+12/43*7/421*15.80.
-12/43*35/42*67.50.
+2/43*41/42*1/2*115.80.
-2/43*41/42*1/2*$67.50
-2/43*1/42*$67.50

+7.75
-2.62
+14.36
+2.41
+6.73
-12.89
+0.07
-15.70
+2.63
-1.53
-0.07

7.75-2.62+14.36+2.41+6.73-12.89+0.07-15.70+2.63-1.53-0.07=$1.14. And if UTG+2 folds, I think that's Hero's e.v.

Since it's positive, I think Hero should call the raise.

Without the pair of aces, the +2.63 becomes -1.53 and Hero ends up with a negative e.v.

Is that what you had in mind? (Very few, if any, could do that all that figuring during a game, and maybe I'm off a bit here and there).

Buzz

wow holy **** man

I know you might be missing some stuff but in any case that was what I was looking for. I mean if this is close to breakeven then I don't mind making the call. But I realize now that my mistake was betting so much on the pot.

Anyway thanks for the reply.

Since when did you start avoiding difficult math, getting old Buzz? =)

Not getting old.

I'm there.

Buzz