4 handed $1/$3 PLO8 online, new opponents, haven't seen any of them playing before, table seems TAG though. Eff. stacks $200.

UTG raises to $10, BTN calls $10, SB folds, Hero calls in BB with T T J Q

I don't mind playing one-way hands, especially if I'm closing the action multiway pre, pretty standard call for me here. Anyone just dump this preflop?

Flop($31): T 4 3

Such a great/bad flop depending on the next two cards

Obviously there are many lines we can take on this flop, which is optimal vs. TAG opponents?

Lead out/value bet?
-auto stack off if raised? (stacks are only 66 BBs)
Check/call?
Check/raise?

I'm a 60/40 dog to A2XX, but I gots top settt

I think with this hand we only like about 27% of all possible flops well enough to feel good about continuing to a $31 bet on the second betting round.

We have to act first, a disadvantage.

But assuming we bet $31 ourselves the 27% like the flop, and both opponents fold,
.27*$24-.73*$7=$1.37 profit (plus we get our $7 investment back).
Thus if neither opponent chooses to continue, we more than recoup the $7 investment (albeit barely) we made by calling the pre-flop raise.

Assuming we like the flop, bet $31 ourselves, and one or both opponents continue, that should be even better for us. We'll win less often, but we'll win more when we win. (Alas, we'll also lose more when we lose).

If the flop is something like T,4,3 with two clubs, then it's sticky. This flop falls within the category of flops we like, but clearly things can easily go wrong for us. We don't want to see a low and we want clubs on an unpaired board or cards enabling a straight on an unpaired board even less.

If we stick it out until the river, as simulated (100,000 runs, Wilson) we'll end up with
• quads or a full house 10474
• flush or straight flush 6456
• straight 14200
• trips 11055
• two pairs 33703
• one pair 24039

You have shown the T as a card in your own hand and also on the flop. (Let's just change the T in your hand to the T - no big deal).

Exactly.

I don't understand. Are you saying this flop is optimal? (Clearly it isn't). Or are you saying there are many optimal lines? I guess that makes sense since whatever line we take depends on our opponents and they won't all react the same. Thus the optimal line would depend on our opponents.

I would lead. I would not auto stack if raised because there are some hands Villain could have that are actually ahead of Hero, for example, anything with a counterfeit protected low draw plus two clubs.

Buzz

easy autostackoff, presumably most villains are also stacking off with middle and bottom set.

You are right about my T being wrong on the board, T is fine thanks.

As for what I was referring to when I said "Obviously there are many lines we can take on this flop, which is optimal vs. TAG opponents?"

I'm asking which line is optimal vs TAG opponents, is it b/c, c/c, c/r, etc...

Buzz, you said you would lead out on the flop, but would not auto-stack off, does that mean you would fold if raised? What would you do for the following situations if you got raised on this board?

i.e. you bet $31, get pot raised $124?
or
what if you bet $20, get raised to $75?
or
you bet $31, get minraised to $62?

Fixed.

I see. You mean, "Obviously there are many lines we can take on this flop. Which line is optimal vs. TAG opponents?" Thanks for making it clear.

I'd generally bet this flop vs two TAG opponents. I want them both to go away and I think directly betting the flop is the best way for me to get them both to do that. And that style meshes well with how I'd bet various other flops. That style lends credibility to making a move and betting with less of a solid fit.

Some people like to slow play top flopped set for one round, mainly, I think, to make reading them more difficult. And slow playing top flopped set for one round does make reads more difficult. But that can easily backfire.

No. What I would do kind of depends on my take on the opponent, but I'd probably call.

That would have to be UTG calls and BTN raises. So I'm getting 2:1 to call if UTG folds and 3:1 to call if UTG also calls. I like it better if UTG also calls. There's a greater chance both UTG and BTN have similar draws (for low and/or for clubs) than drawing for this board to pair. I would probably call.

That's more like what would happen. Same answer as above.

Now, assuming UTG calls, I'm getting 6:1 to call. Same answer as above.

Buzz

i think calling pre is fairly standard

i like checking here vs randoms because u will be closing the action again and i'm probably never check raising here since u are going to be chopping vs the low so often it's best to keep one in to make profit on the chop

having it checked thru is not a disaster either since we can still get value from our holdings on many turns...and there are so many bad turns for our hand anyway that peeling one is good

if this were heads up i like either leading or c/r

so c/c

turn?

i totally disagree with most of the posts here.

I dump this pre. mainly cause its one way AND oop. of course you can hit a miracle flop but even if, you are unlikely to get payed most of the times.

Well u played it: now we have a decent flop, but thats about it. Top set in that spot with 2 ppl to act behind you doesnt seem to strong to me.
Pot was raised pre, so its likely they will have some sort of straight or/and flushdraw plus nut or second nut lowdraw. and thats the reason i wouldnt lead the flop.

If u bet $31 and get raise $124, what are u gonna do? If u play this hand and hit one of the better flops u can, with that hand you can never ever laydown top set with the money you put in allready comparing to stack sizes and so on.

To not get in this spot i'll check/call and see the next card. if its a high non club one id pot bet. if the board pairs i'd check and if there is a really scary card on the turn i can still lay it down if guy bets pot and other folds.

but as i said id rather play A5TT to have some kinda insurance at least and then im able to check raise all in on the flop. But i might be a nit

gl

i agree with this

preflop dont call OOP with marginal hands, get in there with AKJQds but not TTQJ 3 spades. pairs make the hand worse not better unless its KK or AA

agree see a turn and decide how to go from there. if you pair up btw come out firing. dont give lows a free shot at half.

You're going to lose a ton of value if you fold hands like TTJQ preflop imo. I actually prefer a hand like TTJQ over AA9T or KKJ9 because you can flop wraps/sets + draws and it's a lot easier to get away from TTxx than AAxx or KKxx postflop, makes decision making easier in the most part

Are you saying you cant flop a wrap with KKJ9?

of course not...I'm saying I'd rather get dealt TTJQ than KKJ9 because you can flop more wraps with TTJQ and get away from it easier than KKJ9

the ONLY wrap you can flop w KKJ9 is QTx flop,

TTJQ can flop wraps with 89x, K9x, AKx, and if the flop is T9x you have top set + OESD, a flop like KT8 w KKJ9 gives you the same, but the Q is not a nut str8.

Ok i must of misunderstood. I do agree with you on playing TTQJ over KKJ9. TTQJ has slightly more equity than KKJ9 against random A2 hands and is much easier to play postflop.

i didnt say u cant flop wraps. but still: what exactly do want to get called with when floping a wrap?

89X for example. they will only call u with a set or the same draw. so u either split or have to pay a lot to get there and might get killed on the river anyway.

It's a four handed game and he's defending his big blind.

Actually, I think I like ~27% of possible flops with this starting hand. (I figured that yesterday and I forget exactly how, but I did include all flops with a ten, various trips and better making flops, and various, but not all, straight and flush draw flops. Admittedly Hero can get in trouble with some of those - but it's a four handed game).

Call? (I'd generally call). Many players in a four handed game are very aggressive. I think a pre-flop maximum raise and a second round maximum raise may not be indicative of a monster under the bed hand in a four handed game with aggressive opponents. Depending on the particular opponent who is raising, there's not a great chance the aggressor has a monster under the bed (two or three low cards with two clubs). But, yeah, to be sure there is some chance of it.

That's a good point. Flops with a ten, or where Hero flops trips or better, tend to trap Hero in the hand. (But I included some draws in the 27%. If Hero misses his draw, he can get away from the hand).

That does save Hero some money when he loses - but it costs Hero money when it wins. Before there is any action on the second betting round, it's more likely Hero is not up against a monster under the bet hand than he is. Before there is any action on the second betting round, Hero is the favorite against the range AA**,A2**,Ac*c**. And there's no guarantee the pre-flop aggressor in a four handed match even has a hand within that range.

That line makes more sense for tournament play than for ring game play, in my humble opinion.

Slow playing top flopped set is harder for opponents to read, but flopped trip tens isn't strong enough to slow play, not even in a four handed game after this particular flop. A flop bet by Hero "protects" the hand by possibly chasing off hands that would end up out-drawing Hero.

Sure. I'd rather play A5TT than QJTT too. A5TT is a better hand!

I need to know what the X in 89X is. And suits matter. I can see not playing some 89X flops while playing others. To give two extreme examples, you're obviously going to play
8,9,T, but not
8,9,2.

I don't know about you, but I can't get any action in a four handed game if I only bet sure things and wait for premium starting hands.

Bottom lines:
• 1. Playing out of position is awkward, but it's pretty tight to not defend your big blind in a four handed game with this starting hand.
• 2. Hero is probably the favorite after this flop but his hand needs "protection."

Buzz

I think with a pre-flop pot raise AND call you are looking at a definite low draw, probable wheel draw and possible flush draw.

I like the line, leading could take it and more likely establish a low draw only villain. I would also fold the re-pop, assuming villain is not a beast.

agree with DNL about pre...this is a really good hand to flat with imo and it's possible u could profitably 3bet it too

also i was just thinking that if u check and utg bets and the other guy folds i would stuff it in, if he flats too i flat

if UTG checks and button bets i jam..

so i'm only flatting if both are still in, if only one is in i raise

That's also my read of the situation.

What to do if raised is really tough. I think you face some overplayed aggression in a four player game. A raise here wouldn't necessarily mean to me that Villain had a monster hand - but he might have.

However, that's always the case when you bet and get raised in pot-limit.

Unless you only bet the stone cold nuts, whenever you bet and get raised you're potentially confronting an opponent who holds the nuts. To avoid that, you can wait until you have the nuts yourself, but then it's hard to get action when you bet - and when you don't bet, you tend to face aggression.

The truth is, flopped top set, even when there are two clubs and two low cards on the flop, is a healthy hand to hold. Sure, Hero would rather have the nut club draw plus the nut low draw, but you play what you're dealt.

Yes, Hero could be opposed by an opponent holding the nut club draw plus the nut low draw, but with three opponents dealt cards and two seeing the flop, he probably isn't.

After this flop, there are roughly eleven unseen groupings of four cards. If we assume nobody in a four handed game would fold a hand containing the ace of clubs, we can take away one grouping of four cards for the opponent who folded before the flop.

That leaves roughly ten unseen groupings of four cards, only one of which can have the ace of clubs. With two opponents seeing the flop, if neither needs an ace to see the flop, chances are 4 to 1 neither opponent has the ace of clubs. If one opponent has an ace but the other doesn't, it's 3 to 1 neither opponent has the ace of clubs. If both opponents have one ace each, it's even odds that one of them has the A. Or it's possible, but not likely, that between them, these two opponents have three or four aces.

Reasonably, I think on the average, it's ~3 to 1 that neither opponent holds the A (same as probability of 1/4 for one of them to be holding A). And if an opponent does hold the A, he needs another club and at least one deuce, five or six to believe he has a monster.

If we take all the cards Hero can see, plus the A, there are 42 unseen cards, enough to make 14 three-card groupings. The question is, "How many of these 14 three-card groupings probably have at least one club plus at least one deuce, five, or six?"

There are only nine missing clubs. Thus five of the 14 three-card groupings can have no club.

We have nine three-card groupings remaining that might contain a club. We have a total of 9 clubs and 18 non-clubs remaining. Sometimes there will be more than one club in a three-card grouping. I think on the average we can discard almost a third of these three-card groupings on the basis of no clubs and another third on the basis of no deuces, fives or sixes. But there's some overlap. A quick approximation is roughly not more than 3 of the 14 original groups of three cards qualifies with a club plus a deuce, five or six.

So what I'm thinking is 1/4 for the A and 3/14 for the additional club plus a deuce, trey, or six. And that's a combined probability of ~3/56 of running into a monster after this flop. That's in the neighborhood of 5% or 6%. Something like that. So, yeah, it's a real threat, but the odds of butting into it if you bet this flop are slim, easily ~ at least 15 to 1 against.

The main advantage I see in slow playing the flopped set of tens is deception, not safety (except maybe in a tournament). If Hero check/calls, it's harder to put him on top flopped set. The disadvantage of check/calling the flopped set of tens in this now three handed contest is you won't know where the Hell you are in the hand if one of the aggressive opponents behind you bets. You won't know if he has a monster hand or is trying to steal the pot. You're just guessing. I'd rather bet and let my opponents guess.

And if nobody behind you bets, you missed a bet yourself and let them have free draws.

Except for the caveat that one should mix up one's play, in my humble opinion, it's a big mistake not to bet this flop/hand. I'm very interested in opposing opinions, if articulated (explained).

Buzz

I stacked off flop vs PFR who had 44A2, turn was a great card for me (2), but villain hit his 5 to scoop me on river

I am starting to think you are posting bbv hands disguised as strat threads.