Quote:
Originally Posted by omahaChamp
Was concerned about the river and the 4 card, thought it might have been in one of the two villians hands. What would you have done bet or check?
If you took all nine cards you can see out of the deck and dealt out two hands (eight cards), the probability of a four in those eight cards would be about
P=1-C(42,8)/C(43,8)
P=1-35/43=0.18604651.
That's between a sixth and a fifth.
A common sense approximation way to look at it is if you took the nine cards you can see on the river out of the deck, there would be 43 cards left, enough to deal out five eight-card groupings with three cards left over. If one of those eight-card groupings has the missing 4

, then the other four eight-card groupings must not have the four. Thus the odds are better than four to one that neither opponent has the missing four. ("Better than" because of the extra three cards).
Thus the math consideration is: It's better than four to one that neither opponent has the missing 4

. Thus we expect we'll probably win this pot. In other words, it's a good bet that we'll win this pot.
Now the consideration becomes: Is it more likely
• MP2 will bet if Hero checks but both opponents will fold if Hero bets, or
• MP2 will check if Hero checks but at least one opponent will call if Hero bets.
Which of those two is more likely? I don't know these opponents so that I don't know.
My default play would be to bet this river.
I also would have bet the flop rather than check/calling.
Buzz
Last edited by Buzz; 10-02-2009 at 03:39 PM.