Villain is pretty tight player, but not a NIT and he makes some seriously donkified plays sometimes (like calling a raise in the SB w/JJ44 multiway).

I'm 99% sure when he LRR pre-flop that he has a weak AA hand, IE AAMM type of crap that he would rather just LRR and take down the pot with than have to play postflop. Feeling good about my read I call his LRR with position (and a strong 2way hand of my own). On the flop I'm again like 99% sure I have the best lo draw. Does anyone suggest a muck here and if so, why?

Full Tilt Poker $1/$2 Pot Limit Omaha Hi/Lo - 6 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

Hero (MP): $332.70
CO: $320.30
BTN: $285.20
SB: $229.80
BB: $203.30
UTG: $165.00

Pre Flop: ($3.00) Hero is MP with K T 5 A
UTG calls $2, Hero raises to $8, 4 folds, UTG raises to $27, Hero calls $19

Flop: ($57.00) 4 K 3 (2 players)
UTG bets $57, Hero raises to $114, UTG raises to $138 all in, Hero calls $24

Turn: ($333.00) J (2 players - 1 is all in)

River: ($333.00) 3 (2 players - 1 is all in)

If you trust your read than you are 60-40 and must stack.

I simulated it on PPT just to practice using the new operators and to hone my intuition about good flops in BBO8:

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi/Lo Simulation

600,000 trials (Randomized)

board: 4sKh3c

Hand	Pot equity	Scoops	Wins Hi	Ties Hi	Wins Lo	Ties Lo
Ah5hKcTc	57.02%	223,809	266,381	19,182	293,674	68,401
AA** ! (AA2*,AA3*)	42.98%	131,772	314,437	19,182	37,484	68,401

You're certainly fine shoving the flop. My only question would be this: If you're calling 1/6 of the effective stack preflop as a 40-60 dog to hope for a top n% of all flops for your hand, in which case you'll get a 60-40 edge on the other 5/6 stack's worth of action (with the assumption that you'll check/fold most of the other flops), how big does n have to be? In other words, how many of the flops have to be this good to make this situation profitable, and do you get that many good flops?

I would have played it the same way as a BBO8 noob -- just walking through my thought process as I step back and think about the theory.

It is just not about pre-flop equities here. Having position is worth something and knowing I can outplay a weaker opponent is worth something. Making the pre-flop call with the worst hand is something we often do - knowing we can hit a flop or outplay our opponent or use our position to our profit. I think the stacks are still big enough after the flop that I can use my position to play optimally against villain - as I feel I did here.

I know it's not just about pre-flop equities; actually I wish I'd left that out of my comment because it's irrelevant.

I'm just asking for a ballpark figure -- how many flops are going to be good enough to shove with an advantage here? Of course the magnitude of the advantage varies -- if the flop is KK4 your opponent is drawing to 2 outs, etc. But 60-40 sounds like a good estimate.

As for position -- seems to me that you "outplay a weaker opponent" here by either shoving with an advantage or folding without one (maybe occasionally calling). He's apparently never folding AA** here, and AA** makes up 100% of his range, right? So what else are you going to do to outplay him?

A NLHE comparison would be this: Tons of bad players would call a reraise for 1/6 of the effective stack preflop with 55, figuring they can get the other 5/6 in really good if they like the flop. Of course they're ignorant because they're not going to get enough flops they like (i.e., with a 5 or even 467). On the other hand in HE a set would have a 90-10 edge versus an overpair; in the OP we got a flop we mostly like and are only 60-40.

I'm sure your analysis is correct and willing to accept that 1/6 eff. stack isn't too much, but I like to ask questions, and especially to question conventional wisdom, even though it mostly just gets me a better understanding of why that wisdom is conventional.

You raise some good points and I could only guess at a # that would answer your question. I prefer my play more and more the deeper we are, but in this case my hand was strong enough pre-flop I felt I could call here and see a flop and there was still going to be enough bets left to play since villain cannot get it all-in with a flop shove - I can either take him to the turn or reraise him AI if the flop is to my liking or just bone out and fold flop when it comes poorly.

you're HU, so is there any 'outplay' other than you getting him to fold, or you making a correct fold?? (not rhetorical, I'm actually asking)
Because those are the only options I see. with 1/3rd of villians stack going in preflop at best you have 2 streets to outplay him, but realistically only 1 street, ( because thats the 2nd 3rd of his stack)and its likely the flop and AA is very often going to have enough equity to call any flop (only requiring greater than 33% to call a pot bet). I can't exactly say why but my impression formed by your initial post was that he wouldn't let go of his AA easily. I don't exactly think you played the hand badly (but as always we have to ask wtf do i know) but i question whether your thinking you could "outplay him" was valid.

I'm not going to be able to sleep for doing the math in my head, so let's just get it over with.

Getting $165 in as a 60-40 favorite is worth $33:

.6 * 165 - .4 * 165 = .2 * 165 = 33

n of the time you make $33 in expectation, and 1-n of the time you fold and lose $21. (The $8 is a sunk cost; I think I can omit it here for simplicity, because we're comparing everything to folding preflop and losing $8.)

n * 33 > (1-n) * 21
33 n > 21 - 21n
54 n > 21
n > 0.39

So you'd better like 39% of flops as well as you like this one -- well, on average, because a very few flops like KKx you're going to really love -- for the preflop call to make sense.

Please do check my math; I might have missed something.

See my response to AKQJT. There was a reason I posted this hand for discussion. It is def. not cut 'n dry.

Look at the spoiler.

He did have a backdoor NFD in addition to dry aces, but it's hard to imagine him not potting any flop, and once the flop bet is in he's committed. (This may be a good example of why making your standard cbet 2/3 pot is a good idea, but I don't think he's planning to bet/fold this ever.)