Quote:
Originally Posted by UnnaturalDisaster
Just for fun...Unless you are a super user and know everyones whole cards having a 3rd player call does not magically make you a favorite.
Hand | Pot equity | Scoops | Wins Hi | Ties Hi | Wins Lo | Ties Lo |
---|
Ax2x3x8z | 30.33% | 74,049 | 118,802 | 21,779 | 124,732 | 137,747 |
25% | 33.32% | 123,758 | 223,164 | 23,704 | 18,006 | 54,576 |
10% | 36.35% | 133,394 | 222,116 | 28,288 | 15,580 | 108,483 |
You don't need me to agree that you have a point, the sim says it all
But I wasn't playing a random opponent in a random field. I was playing with JJ style pre-meditation, "for sure I'm shoving that button or SB if nobody acts first", kinda thing, and was always going to call a huge range to biood's utg shove.
I didn't care if I was ahead, just knew that in this uber-wide small stake field, that I was most likely fav for low and making that low 50% HU vs biood, or making low ~ 44% if we went 3-handed, even if the 3rd player holds A 4 X X. I would have been far from shocked to find out I was ahead for high and low, given the field and game. As it turned out I would have taken the flip if I was a super-user.
Anyway, that hand isn't a representative example but pretend it is. Is putting people on relatively wide ranges, such as top 10% (which is what, 16,430 distinct hands?) or top 25%, really the best way?
Perhaps vs a random field but when are you ever playing vs a random field on pokerstars? Surely those who have been around long enough are putting different players on much tighter, or wider, ranges than the gaussian opponent? And each individual player will act in a number of different ways given the same hand. Ranges are symbiotic with player dynamics and history - e.g my calling range vs your SB shove is the widest point of my game, my calling range vs solid player utg action would be the tightest point of my game.
Given that many players are self-aware and aware of other table dynamics, sometimes calling a top 45% hand is good, sometimes calling a top 5% hand is bad, blatantly so in both cases. So what is my calling range? 45%? or 2%?