Quote:
Originally Posted by Counterfeiter
Can anyone explain villain's call ?
I don't think anyone can know what Villain was thinking. But perhaps I can make sense out of his actions for you.
BTN showed A
2
T
5
, a very decent, albeit not great, starting hand (very decent because it has ace-deuce with a five for counterfeit protection - not great because it lacks high card strength)... At any rate it's certainly a hand with which I'd want to see the flop.
Quote:
[converted_hand][hand_history]Poker Stars, $2 Buy-in (800/1,600 blinds) Pot Limit Omaha H/L Tournament, 4 Players
BTN: 82,479 (51.5 bb)
SB: 31,480 (19.7 bb)
BB: 31,592 (19.7 bb)
Hero (CO): 34,449 (21.5 bb)
Preflop: Hero is CO with T K 2 A
Hero raises to 4,800, BTN calls 4,800, 2 folds
BTN's pre-flop call (rather than making it three bets) seems to me a matter of style.
Quote:
Flop: (12,000) Q J 3 (2 players)
This is a good flop for Hero, but Villain doesn't know that.
Quote:
Hero bets 8,400, BTN raises to 16,800,
I don't know why BTN raises here. I think it's a mistake for BTN to raise here. Perhaps BTN thinks because he has the A
, he can scare Hero enough to induce Hero to fold. (BTN can see that Hero cannot have the nut flush draw... and, perhaps because of poor advice given elsewhere, many Omaha-8 players are loathe to draw for a flush without the
nut flush draw).
What to do after Hero bets 8,400 on this flop is a hard decision for BTN, especially if he views Hero as overly aggressive. Should he fold? Should he call? Perhaps BTN (incorrectly) reasons Hero cannot have a strong fit with this flop without the A
.
At any rate, BTN raises, probably not expecting a shove from an opponent who doesn't have the A
.
I believe this raise is BTN's mistake. BTN has to fold to Hero's flop bet. But I think it's a tough decision for BTN.
Quote:
Hero raises to 29,649 and is all-in, BTN calls 12,849
The pot at this point is
12,000+16,800+29,649=58,449
and it costs BTN 12,849 to make this call. Thus BTN is getting pot odds of 58,449/12,849=~4.55/1.
1/5.55=0.18 or 18.0%
for this call to be the wrong decision for an expert BTN, he has to be behind in pot equity more than 18.0% to 82.0%. And an expert BTN should reason he's probably not behind by that much.
Indeed, BTN is only behind by about 23 to 77 as shown in the following simulation:
Hand | Pot equity | Scoops | Wins Hi | Ties Hi | Wins Lo | Ties Lo |
---|
TdKs2sAh | 76.74% | 465 | 611 | 121 | 0 | 144 |
As2dTh5h | 23.26% | 56 | 88 | 121 | 64 | 144 |
So, ICM considerations aside, and because BTN made a mistake earlier, BTN has favorable odds to make this call.
Buzz