NLO8 MTTs are pretty fun games. I'm still learning them, but I feel like most players are bad. Probably myself included.




A few questions:

1) How often do I need to win this preflop to justify opening it?
2) Is there ever a scenario where this would be a fold?

Shortstack NLO8 with antes seems to justify super aggro preflop play. I have played a lot of plo8 cash lifetime, but only a few MTTs so these spots are unique for me.

this is a really REALLY bad open pre, and an even worse stack off... muck it pre, u will easily be able to find a better spot

Someone had AA and someone had A2, yet I'm the favorite in the hand. So saying it is a bad stack off seems questionable.

The pot we are playing for is 12,302 chips, so we only need 29% equity to make the call profitable. As it played out we had over 37% and were the favorite.

which is absolute best case scenario, you cant just play 1 hand in a vacuum. I have said this a million times, but you cant just take marginal spots in omaha and o8, there is so much variance in the game as it is that if you push little edge in tournaments you will lose just due to the sheer number of times you would be all in every mtt.

Just as an analogy.

In NLH MTTs, sometimes I play 72o. Not because 72o is good, but because the situation says I can. And with something like 72o there is never a 'good case' where I'm a big favorite in the hand like here. Just because 3467hh is marginal doesn't itself make it a fold. Especially when your opponents are awful.

I guess I'm searching for bigger picture answers that I probably won't find here like "how often do we win this preflop?" "how often do we win it on the flop with a cbet?" "how often do we take it multiway and have to fold?"

IMO, one of the biggest edges in 20-40bb tournaments like this stealing players equity by having them fold. And I kinda want to explore that.

This is a fold pre in o8.

You say your opponents are awful. That usually means postflop in 08. Equity advantages are far far less in 08 all in, than they are in NLHE. What you are doing is removing any advantage you may have postflop, by flipping with a hand that is doing terribly against their ranges preflop. From a logical perspective this seems daft.

This is a short stack format in a game where people like to see flops or get it in preflop. Therefore you seem to be way way way overestimating fold equity here. This hand is neither good pre all in or good postflop. Trust us when we say this is a standard fold, especially in MP1.

If you want to find a game to gamble your tournament away, this is it. You are never far behind. As was said, you ran into the best case scenario.

What you did is like over-calling with pocket 2's in a holdem MTT and running into AK and AQ, then saying it wasn't bad because you had the best hand. 22 is ahead of AK and AQ hot and cold heads up, but it NEVER dominates a hand. AK and AQ, while being behind 22, does dominate hands, quite a few...

Your hand never dominates, their hands can.

I'm responding without looking in your spoiler and without reading the other posts in this thread.

What happened to UTG and UTG+1? (No matter... I'm just vaguely curious... I guess they were knocked out earlier, maybe by UTG+2).

I would simply fold this right here.

You win the blinds and the antes if everyone folds to your raise.
8*T25+T100+T200=T500 is what you win if everyone folds to your raise. If you plan to call if re-raised, you're risking your whole stack, T3974.

But sometimes when you risk your whole stack, you'll win at least T500+T3774=T4274. If you're challenged by a top 10% hand, your pot equity is 42.21% (as shown in the following simulation).

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi/Lo Simulation

600,000 trials (Randomized)

Hand	Pot equity	Scoops	Wins Hi	Ties Hi	Wins Lo	Ties Lo
6h3h4s7c	42.21%	152,404	260,695	3,306	157,727	6,708
10%	57.79%	244,788	335,999	3,306	151,364	6,708

So 42.21%, when challenged, you end up with +T4274 and 57.79% you end up losing T3974. That's a net loss of .4221*T4272-.5779*T3974=-T493.

So T500*X%=T493*(100-X%)
T993X%=T49300
X%=49.6%

ICM considerations aside, looks like maybe you have to get away with the steal about half the time to break even over the long haul. (The other half of the time, against a top 10% hand, you don't get away with the steal but you do end up with a pot equity of 42.21%).

For me it's a fold 100% of the time.

Me too.

Buzz

You win this preflop less than 2% and I'm probably Being generous. And the hand plays just atrocious post flop out of position. The problem with this hand is there are like no post flop situations where you scoop the pot, and that's how you make money in o8. In order to win the high you basically are guaranteeing that your opponent will also hit a low and chop you. Even if you hit a wheel with this hand it's highly unlikely that you get paid off by worse because people will only bluff u with blockers in a spot like that, and there are so few combos with 33 and 44 in it that will see a flop.

As far as being the favourite in this exact case goes, the only reason you are ahead is that you are against one naked low draw. Give EITHER opponent one more wheel card and you are at 26%.
Your equity here is the exception, not the rule.

Coming from an O/8 and PLO8 cash background, I realize playing this in a cash format would be silly and trivial.

What made this hand interesting to me was that we are super short, players are super bad (see the AAK9) and winning the pot preflop with the antes is a really reasonable sum.

How often will I win the pot pre and/or on the flop are probably the questions I need to ask, as Buzz did the rest of the math.

Also, you all are right about how favorable the situation was. Vs two 10% ranges I was only an equity coinflip.

You can never win the pot pre as you are faced with 2 all in's so that answers that question.

Your hand is close to the nut worst in terms of hand equity vs others ranges HU.

You talk about being short but 20 bb in this game is not really short at all. I am not even a fan of raising 2334 or 2345 ds in mp with your stack size. Your hand is a no brainier fold and any other action you are simply trying to justify to yourself.

You are on to something that there is a lot of value to be gained by being aggressive preflop with antes involved. 'Tournament life' and not pushing small edges are both concepts that are foreign to me. However, you are in far too early of a position to justify this. With no ace to block the majority of good hands out there, and 6 left to act, there is just a huge chance you aren't going to get folds all around. How huge? Maybe you could mess around with odds oracle and get an estimate but it will not be close enough to justify the time. Very likely you are going to get flat called and then have a tricky hand to play with an SPR of 3 or 4, or someone shoves pre then you have to fold or take a ridiculous gamble.

You have the kind of stack where you don't want to be doing a lot of raise folding preflop anyhow. You have a stack where you can get away with some light 3-bets if you feel like an opponent is willing to fold and likely stealing.

This is likely a profitable open-shove from the button and certainly from the SB, because players in general just aren't calling as wide as they should. Cut-off might be pushing it. Raise-folding pre might be a better and lower variance option depending on the players in the blinds.

lol @ minraise pre

That's a CO,BU hand played min-open fold. Fold pre from that position.

Lot of good comments here, thanks. Helped me a lot already the next day when I built a huge stack in the Omania.

I do agree that opening this here in this position is going to be troublesome. I think mostly because of how rarely we get a flop that we will be happy continuing on. At the time I didn't consider how important that would be. At the time of the hand I just kinda opened because why not. Learning as we go...

Still think a few of you don't appreciate how wild NLO8 can be when you are playing rake free pots + an extra BB from antes every time you win.

Still think a few of you don't appreciate how wild NLO8 can be when you are playing rake free pots + an extra BB from antes every time you win.[/QUOTE]

There is a difference between that and spew!