But you have to let me post a beat now lol ..........

Ok thanks buzz

i hope that means he will forever and stop posting in my market place threads too. enough is enough and i am happy to put him on ignore for eternity.

No doubt he will continue to rail every game i play and talk **** at tables but w.e that's outwith this forum. I'm sure he will annoy more regs here and have more squabbles but it won't be with me.


cheers

Thank you!

No problem.

I think that’s an interesting hand. As simulated after the flop,

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi/Lo Simulation

820 trials (Exhaustive)

board: J52

Hand	Pot equity	Scoops	Wins Hi	Ties Hi	Wins Lo	Ties Lo
AsAc3c6h	61.98%	339	388	6	450	117
Ah2h9c6c	38.02%	136	426	6	0	117

But how much of Villain’s equity is due to the heart draw? Maybe we can find out by taking away the heart draw:

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi/Lo Simulation

820 trials (Exhaustive)

board: J52

Hand	Pot equity	Scoops	Wins Hi	Ties Hi	Wins Lo	Ties Lo
AsAc3c6h	78.63%	514	604	12	450	117
Ah2c9c6c	21.37%	82	204	12	0	117

Looks like Villain’s equity drops from 38.02% to 21.37% when we take away the heart flush draw. In other words, Villain’s about 2:3 with the heart draw and about 1:4 without it. And that’s probably about how much our own equity is affected by having a flush draw (or not).

Hero splits with three low hearts and gets a quarter with one low heart. Thus Villain only scoops with a deuce or a high heart on the river… just six scoop cards for Villain, one 3/4 card, and three split pot cards (out of 44 possible cards on the river. And that corresponds to 38% equity.

To me, as an out counter, that’s interesting.

Crudely, let’s think in multiples of 800. In other words, let’s think of one chip as being worth T800. If we do that, then after this flop, the pot is 2*T800 (or 2 chips) and Villain has ~3*800 (or 3 chips) left and is facing a one chip bet. If you match Villains 3 chip all-in shove, Villain is getting roughly 5 to 3 implied pot odds. Meanwhile the hand odds against Villain (as simulated) are about 3 to 2. (61.98% to 38.02% is about 3 to 2).

If we make those both sixths, we can compare them (approximately). If you call, Villain’s getting ~10 to 6 and the odds against him are only ~9 to 6. In addition, there may be a possibility in Villain’s mind that you’ll fold when he shoves all-in.

All in all, I think Villain plays correctly here.

Or he could have called and I think that would be correct too. He’s getting even better odds to just call... 3 to 1, or 18 to 6. But if he just calls, he loses his fold equity.

One thing that seems certain to me is Villain should not fold to your T800 bet on the second betting round.

There’s a lot of stuff here to digest.

Very interesting hand.

But mainly, thanks for agreeing to not respond to billy or comment about him or his play in this forum!

Buzz

You're welcome. I assume that means you agree. And thank you for agreeing.

I have no control over the market place forum or what gets posted there. The market place forum mods are responsible for what gets posted there. If you feel someone is harassing you or trolling you in the market place forum, then I suggest you send a private message to Bobo or one of the other market place moderators.

Thank you.

My guess is if you stop insulting him and if you stop responding to him, he'll stop giving you a hard time. It may take a while, but eventually I think he'll lay off. Try being kind and considerate of him. See if eventually that works.

I think he's interesting, thoughtful, and offers a different perspective worthy of consideration.

But if you can't see that, it's better to just put him (or anyone else who annoys you) on your ignore list.

Sorry, you can't put mods on your ignore list.

Cheers.

Buzz

I must say you are my favorite 2+2 mod, Buzz. Just out of curiosity, what did you teach before your deanship, if you don't mind me asking?

@ Prince - yea, Buzz is pretty cool for an old dude

@ Buzz - an interesting analysis. I thought it was pretty standard but you make a lot of points that I hadn't considered.

In villain's shoes, it's a tough one, I see it as basically going all-in on a flush draw on flop - meaning he is roughly 3-1 against (my POV I discount 2s, 6s, 9s or that A 6 is good for low). If I held his hand, I gotta be honest and say I would fold that early in the game a very high % of the time. Maybe that makes me a nit, I dunno. I don't do well in flips so I most def don't go out of my way to find spots where I'm less than 50/50.

The way I played the hand, I screamed that I had A A 3 4 (or similar like A 3 J J, even A 2 2 3 or my actual A A 3 6) and neither villain nor the other caller are stupid players. They didn't have a wealth of XP with me though, I think had the pot been split, villain would fold in the same spot next time around.

For clarity's sake, if you KNEW my hand and were playing as the villain, would that make any difference to your assertion that villain definitely shouldn't fold to my flop lead (I believe you advocate flat call)? I guess in PL we can ignore any possibility of villain folding pre (although I won't always call there, villain dependent).

Finally I have posted in ONE of macbeth's railing (not staking) threads and I didn't comment on his play or any financial arrangements, nor do I intend to be difficult for the sake of it.

As always, I appreciate your time and efforts

Thanks.

Chemistry.

Buzz

Back-to-back FTs in the Omania 27.

Was about to ask if I could possibly have back-to-back ships, then I did this .........





Mitigating circumstances are that the player I called had been all-in A 5 7 8 ms and A J K K hs, historically been a spin and win kinda player. Was far and away the weakest FT I've ever had though, should have had another coffee and sparked one. Tight play I finished top 3 for sure.

On the plus side, I get to go to bed before the sun comes up for a change

Sounds reasonable.

Sitting in Villain's shoes, I would not like your first betting round re-raise to 10bb.
I'd put you tentatively on aces, probably one of them suited, and probably with a wheel card for your pre-flop re-raise.

But, although Villain's (A2)(96) is seriously flawed, I'd realize it's probably the best hand I'd see for two rounds or so of this seven handed table. Hoping for the best, I'd want to see the flop.

After this flop, I'd realize that if you did have aces and one of your aces was suited, you missed your flush draw, and I'd wonder if you also missed for low (with a deuce, like Villain). I wouldn't be sure you had aces, but if I didn't recognize you as a top notch player, I'd wonder if you did have aces whether or not you'd make the very common mistake of overplaying your aces.

However, if I recognized you as a top notch player, I'd figure you probably would not over play your aces (if that's what you had)... but in that case, I'd figure you would not want me to shove after you bet this particular flop.

Sometimes the play to make is the play your opponent doesn't want you to make.

And if I figured you for a better player than me, I'd want to completely neutralize your skill advantage for the last two betting rounds. By shoving all-in on the second betting round, I'd accomplish that objective.

Anyhow, that would be my approximate thought process. I can't say whether or not your opponent would think that way. (He might).

I don't think that makes you a nit.

That makes good sense.

AA34, AA36 are possibilities. And there are others not as good. Should Villain expect you to re-raise to 10bb before the flop when holding A3JJ or A223?

"XP" = experience?

Maybe. It might have been a coin flip with him this time.

Villain has you covered. You can't knock him out this hand. But he can knock you out. I think that's an important consideration.

Thinking in increments of bbs, Hero starts with ~52.7bb, has ~42.7bb left after re-raising to 10bb on the first betting round.

Then on the second betting round, Villain, with about 50bb remaining, is looking at a 32bb pot before Hero bets 16bb, leaving ~26.7 in Hero's stack. If Villain realizes that mostly hands are about 60:40 in Omaha-8, and if he figures he's a 60:40 underdog, then roughly 60% he loses -42.7bb while roughly 40% he wins 32+42.7=+74.7bb.

If we use the actual numbers from the simulation, instead of 0.4 and 0.6, it's close.
74.7bb*0.3802-42.7bb*0.6298=+1.51bb

But the plus sign means Villain has a positive e.v. for shoving (even though he's behind). Additionally since he has a bigger stack that Hero, Villain cannot go broke here... while Hero can go broke. Villain might expect Hero should realize this and thus might seriously consider folding when Villain shoves on the second betting round.

Would I shove here if I knew you held AA36? I honestly don't know. It's close. Before running the simulation, I might not have realized Villain was only behind about 40:60 (actually closer to 38:62).

I agree it's Villain dependent.

Thank you. I believe you.

Thanks. I hope the new arrangement works.

Buzz

heads up , ban the loser

Not my intention to sound patronizing, I just don't like wasting my time sugar coating things . Also, bookies play in that hand is hardly poor at all, It is actually a really good spot for him to bluff given that he has every blocker in the world, just because you happened to have it there doesn't mean it is not a profitable play.

We tried that and I won, but let's not go there again lol

I agree with that sentiment in a generalised sense but once you are that deep in a high-stakes game, vs an OH8 reg that HASN'T been stealing or bluffing (was railing 4-tables out for a long time), the turn lead looks monstrously strong to me. Yes bokkie still has nut outs for st and flush. He might also figure he has some equity from forcing a fold with the big stack but in the microcosm of this context, I am not a fan of how either of them played it but less so bokkie.

Yea I agree with this. From villain's POV, I could easily hold something like A A 2 J, A A K K, maybe A A 7 8 with weak flush draw, 2 3 K K with K high flush draw etc. Also spot-on about over-playing aces. Aces alone rarely play and inexperienced players (even me sometimes) get married to AA and let the opposition free-roll their 2 pair, flush and straight draws after they flopped low hands.

A rule I live by.

True, I probably wouldn't force the action with those hands. I guess if villain puts me on A A 2 J or similar he would only be a 61-39 dog for high and make low ~ 55%. Plus when he makes high he can expect to scoop.

lol you've never played Xbox? Yes XP = experience

Perhaps I don't give this sufficient consideration when playing. Go-broke always a consideration, esp in SnGs with smaller fields. Someone needs to write me a program that calculates this in real-time and also keeps track of mucked cards in stud games. What about you, Walter White? (I forgive not getting the Xbox reference, won't forgive not getting that one)

Then, I highly recommend Breaking Bad. Alot of interesting chemistry.

I agree he looks strong by leading... but even still its a good bluff spot, you gotta remember most o8 regs have played less than 10 mtts that important, chances are you are gonna get him to fold even most of his premiums there.

BTW shipped the 8r NLHE today... scoop saverrrrrrr

good job!

I had a scoop saver to a few days back. luckboxed the hot 11

well chopped 4 handed in cl for 5.6k around. needed it after so many scoop failed and busting a ridic number of mtts on the side

marek_heinz close to the FT in the main event 1K.

Vandir4rek just won SCOOP Main event for 1 Million.

^ came here to say that ... Omg, omg... hope this fame now helps him bring more people to the o8 side of town.

One little peat pot (out of 138) had a little plant in it before today. I didn't know if it was a pansy or not. (Still don't).

Then today there was growth in 18 more peat pots!

I'm pleased and excited!

17 of the little plants looked the same, just a tiny feathery light yellow green spike. I'm hoping they're all pansies. I think they probably are.

I'll keep you updated.

Buzz

^^ Glad your pansies have made friends with the peat pots, Walter (you get that yet? some spooky similarities). Also what do you make of this?

Fluorine uranium carbon potassium bismuth technetium helium sulfur, germanium thulium oxygen neon yttrium

I think the "peat" pots are really paper mâché.

Walter?

I guess not.

You lost me.

Prostitutes get money?

Buzz

Walter White was an all-round good guy, solid citizen and father of a son with cerebral palsy. He was a respected chemist and co-founded a company, however, he had a falling out with his co-founders and sold his shares for $5000 - shares that were subsequently worth millions. To make ends meet, Walter became a high school chemistry teacher.

Walter then unfortunately developed lung cancer. His medical insurance didn't cover the costs of his treatment, so, rather than selling the family home and liquidating their savings, Walter (who was about 60), decided he would extract the maximum commercial value from his unique skill-set: - by cooking the finest crystal meth in America. I won't hit you up with any more spoilers in case you decide to watch one of the most critically acclaimed TV shows of the last decade - Breaking Bad

Too sharp for me there

Did you work that out yourself or did you already know the story? (one assumes you aren't a fan of the Notorious B.I.G?)