Loose $2/5 home game - we just announced last orbit which promotes more loose calls esp preflop. Hero has $700 to start hand. Theres a $20 raise and I call w Kh-2h-3d-4d as do 5 others so $140 in preflop.

I'm in mid position and flop is Jh-5h-2c

Raiser and others check to me and bet $100. Tilting guy goes all in for $200. Hold em player goes all in for $525. All others fold. I call as I know villain has a set here an awful lot and I can scoop here a lot.

Thoughts?

Thx

Standard call LDO.

Is this pot-limit (or no-limit)? I'll presume it's pot-limit and mark it accordingly (with a ) but if that's wrong, it's easy to correct.

Assuming Villain has a set, do you like anything besides aces, sixes, and hearts? If not, you dislike twice as many (30) cards as you like (15). The probability you'll see a card you like on the turn or river is
15*14/2/990+15*30/990 = 0.56.

But although you're favored (about 5 to 4) to get a card you like on the turn or river, some of the time when you do get a favorable card you'll still lose. (And some of the time you'll split).

On the basis of what you have written about your opponents, this would be a tough call for me.

When I'm drawing, I prefer to be able to make a bet and have some expectation of getting paid off when I make my draw. And I like to be the one to put pressure on my opponents, rather than the other way around.

In other words, I generally prefer to be drawing when my opponents are not already all-in. And for me that is what tilts the balance toward folding this hand in these circumstances.

Fold.

(Sorry to disagree with you, RichGangi).

Buzz

I dont have too much to say because the positions arent here.. but when you bet 100 and get raised it is pretty gross.. you have good equity if there are no other lows even discounting your flush draw outs which are possibly tainted.. for card removal aspects i kind of lean towards a fold against tight players but you are priced in 2.25:1 so I think a call is basically OK.. if you are putting a guy on set your equity is taking a big hit

Call Pre is ok

Check flop.. no seriously.. check flop 7 handed.. ur hand is a great check call for one bet.. check fold for 2+ large bets

also if you are routinely stabbing in these spots ur image is likely not one that is getting many folds

Buzz, it was pot limit. Another psychological factor was that I was going to be up about $300 if I fold vs potentially being down a couple hundo if I brick. I had grinded my way all night long to be in a decent spot and now although it felt right with me getting the right price, playing to scoop, etc...I'm still putting my night's outcome on the line on one flip. Yea I know were supposed to not think finite ends to a session and poker is nothing but one really long session but we're human and we do.

I dont like folding to "lock up a win" unless you have been on a loooong nasty downswing and the psychological benefits of booking are going to have a carry over effect

NP Buzz, I just feel like our equity is so good here, it's a no brainer call. I may be too loose tho, I'll give you that. Hero has so much hand tho.....I put it in here.

The mistake was betting the flop. Your main goal here should have been to see a cheap turn (aka: make the nuts somehow). If it's 2 or 3 handed, then sure maybe find a way to steal it, but 6 handed... this is one of the most dangerous flops your particular hand could see.

IN a casual home game i dont think image matters at all due to the fact most of the players are only paying attention to themsleves and their own hand, I think balance is overated in a game like this I would just focus on all the spots i can value bet,, you know your likely up against a nut low draw and flush draw

I respectfully disagree... PLO8 is one of the most showdown heavy games you can play... not to mention one of the most recreational unfriendly games you can play.. do you see where I am going with this??

In 2015 even the most 'recreational' player notices if someone is making too many aggressive plays .. no Im not giving them credit for adjusting and playing back at us... I am just saying our bet here if we have been taking similar stabs isn't going to encourage the folds we need.. Not to mention OP says it is 'last orbit' and FE is low anyways.. imo betting this flop is not the best play check calling is a lot better for a lot of reasons


TL;DR - I am not saying we need to "balance" here at all.. or that is why starting w/the check is best

2-3 handed betting out is very close to the best play imo

It's a lose home game already, and this is the last orbit (in the home games I've played that means people are calling almost any4) ... but magically the nut low and nut flush draw are obviously going to be out there. Le sigh.

To recap (I'm guessing both blinds called):
Hand: K23d4d
Flop: J 5 2
Pot: $140

(SB) ?: ??
(BB) ??: ??
(EP) ???: ??
Hero: $680
????: ???
Tilting: $200
NLHE: $525

Tilting villain is super likely to bet anything here if it's checked to him, we aren't ever folding this and NLHE guy can raise for isolation or something weird if we check. Expecting a x/r out of EP specifically is kind of weird, although I guess I could find a fold if that happened. We could easily have the best low draw and best flush draw here. If we x/c we'll almost certainly have ~1 spr for the turn. Are the check advocators really planning on just x/f here, or just on board pairing turns? What about if it checks through and anything but an A or 6 hits ... you x/f then too?

Checking has some merits, but so does betting. The sizing is interesting, we want to shove over "tilting" so 50-100 seems good ... again arguments for both, but I'd probably pick 100 if I knew the stack sizes perfectly.

This situation is quite a lot scarier if the action is:

(EP) ?: ??
Hero: $680
??: ??
???: ??
????: ???
Tilting: $200
NLHE: $525

...but I'm not sure checking is good then either, because wtf do we do if it checks to tilting and he bets? I guess if the action is:

(EP) ?: ??
Hero: $680
Tilting: $200
??: ??
???: ??
????: ???
NLHE: $525

...it's a clear check, but even then I don't think it's terrible to bet (lol 1.4 buyins at the any4 round of the home game).

With some decent reads on villains, we could maybe think about x/f more. Dito. if loose and last orbit in this home game means something v. different to what I've seen. But if we are thinking about it too much then we're calling a decent amount pre. (which will invite a lot of others) to see the Ah on the flop, and that's not very likely.