I know from others estimations that 1BB/hr is an assumed solid WR for LHE players with a substantial edge.

What in your experience is a solid WR range in live limit O8 games?

Malmuth says win rate in limit O/8 can be much higher than in LHE, though I don't have his exact numbers in front of me. I believe he puts it in the range of 1.25 to 1.5 BB/hr.

O8 w/rs will vary quite a bit depending on rake and competition, but should be 1-3BBs/hr for very good players who game select. Mediocre (ie abc tight) players should expect to be breakeven. Lots of ppl think they're in the first category but are actually in the 2nd ...

That said, games are sometimes fairly tight (not super often but it does happen). These games are only marginally profitable for the best player at the table and a losing proposition for everyone else.

Btw, low limit la games will have relatively low w/r's due to the relatively high rake.

I shoot for 3-4 BB/hour in low limit (e.g. 6-12) and 1 BB/hour at mid-stakes, and over a period of years that is about my average.

I don't have enough experience at high stakes to speak for it. Players better than me can probably do 1-3 BB/hour at mid-stakes and 1 BB/hour at high stakes.

Sometimes, the quality of your opponents will make this impossible. If everyone is decent then obv the rake is winning only. If the game is too tight, find another game or play NL for awhile.

live poker is anything but a zero sum game.

take 100 players, how many of them are winning players?

5? 4? 3? 2? 1? why not 0?

why do you talk about winrates (BTW, I want to see the player who makes 3BB's long term) like it's obvious that some players do win? even a players pool of 1000, 10000... there's no guarantee that there are winners among these groups.

talking about winrates like it's nothing is really harmful for anyone who thinks seriously about making the transition.

I can think of only one true professional LO8 player at the Venetian. he won't ever play lower than 15/30, and I think he knows why...

75% of players think they're better than the other 75%. that's the poker bubble. reading this might hurt now, but ignoring this might hurt more later...

How do you play? I know solid players who report to the casino every weekday at 11AM, start the games, and then play for 9 hours. Other solid players are in other games, and if O8 looks good they jump in for as long as it lasts. They each are solid but have diffenert win rates.

So do you want to maximize win rate? Maximize earnings? Minimize variance? Play when the cute cocktail waitress works? (raises hand)

I think that the % of winning players depends first on how much rake is coming off the table and second on the quality of your opponents. There definitely exist games with no winning players.

Because someone asked, and I know the answer.

I've had those winrates over a period of years, and I'm very comfortable with saying so. If you're a decent player and you haven't, then you need to either reassess whether you are actually a decent player and improve your game, or you need to find a game with lower rake and/or lesser opponents.

I think you and I have had this discussion before.


While I agree that this discussion can be a tease, it can also be aspirational. Fact is, not everyone is going to achieve these winrates, and it isn't necessarily because of lack of skill.

Sadly, some people will have to realize that they have to work for a living and not play cards full time. I'm better at poker than most people, and I don't play poker full time.

This is true. But I would say that it's tougher than that: I think that only the top 3-12% of players have a chance to play for a consistent profit (the spread depends on stakes, rake, and opponent skill), and even among that small group of winning players the profits are not usually enough to make a living.

I am among the group that plays profitably but not enough to feed my family.

I ask because although I really enjoy playing LO8, my hourly at 40/80LO8 (what runs here) is so far $75/hr, which is far less than what I make at 5/10NL. Accordingly I have promised myself to not play any LO8 unless 5/10NL isn't running. I wanted to know though if the $75/hr is something I can drastically improve upon given I feel my O8 game is strong but has plenty of room for improvement. I would happily grind it more if I could expect about 100/hr. The average game quality is 1or2 tight good regs, 3 weak tight losing players, and 2 or 3 loose fish.

just curious where you play at hustler... I know that 20/40 runs in la, is there a 40/80 at the commerce? just wondering thnx

Was thinking he's prob at Commerce, maybe HP ... idk how much that game is going these days.

This is false. To whom are you referring?

OP - Games with a kill will also have a larger BB/hr win rate simply because a fair number of pots are played at higher stakes.

$40-45/hr is very feasible at the 15/30 1/3 kill Venetian game, for example

wouldn't it be better to go by winrate per 100 hands, or hands per hour? then average out rake per hand, adjust for vpip; factor in kill or half kill or whatever.......

Guess a pro must think in terms of income, which usually is defined as $$/time.

how big sample size do u need to decide a WR for live limit o8?

3BB/hr sounds alot.. thats like 9BB/100 hands after rake

It's at the high end of what's achievable, ie a v good player in good games w relatively low rake, but def achievable. Live play is just so lol.

I too am surprised at this statement. How are you defining "professional" LO8 player? My rough guess is that there are >7 regs at the v who avg $25/h+ at 20+ hrs/wk at the 8/16 and 15/30 games and a few more that avg that hourly but log fewer hours (ie mainly play other games).

I assume that she is talking about the 15.30, a game with multiple formats--the most frequent being: 15-30 w/ 5 & 10 blinds; and 20-40 w/ 5-10-20 blinds and where, at a 10-handed table, a hand only costs $1.50. There's only one guy at the table who has figured this format out.

Btw, I'm lousy at using the archives search, but Mason and DS were posting the solutions to these type of games 10 or 12 years ago on 2+2.

There is an occasional game at Commerce and at HP.

I've played that 15/30 game at the V, and I think it's the kind where 3BB/hour is probably NOT achievable.

There is definitely more than one working pro playing that game.

why today's small stakes games are so hard to beat for good numbers:

1) the games are slow. you typically get around 20 hand/hour.
so, 5BB/100 equals 1BB/hour, 1.25BB/100 equals 0.25BB/hour, etc.

2) you can't table select aggressively as there aren't many games, sometimes only one or none. it's also hard to seat select as live LO8 players have the tendency to get stuck to their chairs for many hours (one reason is the slow game).

3) the edge a good player has over a mediocre player is minimal. a good player wants terrible players at the table. newer players today are generally better than newer players 5 years ago, especially after black friday.

4) young kids are used to fast action in an anti-social environment online. when they sit at a live game, they complain how slow the action is, become impatient, berate bad players, discuss strategy at the table, call their friends over, telling them how good the game is. they'll wear their hood and earphones, basically telling everybody that they didn't come to have a good time. instead, they came to take the suckers' money. they'll soon start drinking, because LO8 is "such a great drinking game", and become even nastier than they already are. under these conditions, it's more likely that their opponents won't feel safe to play as loose as they do and as bad as they do, and might even quit.

a true professional (fewer than you might think) obviously doesn't act like that. one can write a poker book and still be nasty and miserable (not a true professional even if he makes a sustainable living for years). there are some things that a strategy book just can't teach...

Anyone have any current input how how the 15-30 plays at the V right now. Last time I played it was a year ago and only reason it was running was because March madness. It seemed to kinda die there for a few years Celt for tourneys but seems to have been running more frequently in last few months. Just curios if any regs on here or in 8/16.
Is 30/60 at B a better game than Venetians 15/30 or are line ups pretty similar?

B's 30/60 practically never runs anymore. V's 15/30 runs fairly often, like 5x a wk or so (games usually start in the afternoon and end at random times) and goodness of games varies quite a bit but is often not that great. 8/16 runs every day often w 2 tables. Games aren't always good but often are.

Those interest in the V's game can get real-time updates here:

http://www.venetian.com/pokermobile/

or here:

https://twitter.com/#!/VenetianPoker

Is best place for live 08 above 6/12 in So cal hawaiin gardens 20/40 mix? From the people I have talked to in that game it seems to be a pretty tough games at times. Just curious, recently moved down here and only thing I have seen is 6/12 at bike. Did see DOUG LEE at Oceans 11 couple weeks ago playing 5/5 nlhe and getting owned which was sort of comical