Reads: This $15/30 game has been playing pretty tough, and HJ has correctly adjusted by opening pretty wide in late position. He is in the HJ, not on the button, so I give him about 15% here. He seems likely to be pretty aggressive HU postflop, since he knows I'm on a weak range here.

8-handed

Preflop
All fold to HJ raise, fold fold, SB folds, Hero ????

Hero is BB with 6552

If I'm folding this (as I probably should), what are my standards for defending this class of hand here? What about:

• 4332
• 6543
• K552
• K652

What about the original hand vs the same Villain's button open?

And if I play any of these, what's my general plan postflop HU? Treat any flush draw like (almost) the nut draw? Treat any board with an ace (almost) as though I have 32? Or am I overadjusting to HU in a steal situation?

15% in the HJ is opening wide? Something is off here. If blinds are $10/$15 I prob call all hands mentioned.

Yep to all this, not close imo. K552 I might fold vs. some people if only single suited.

I'm going to answer before I read the other replies.

It's a fixed-limit game, right? If you just call it down, your maximum cost, starting from where you're faced with the raise, will be 1+1+2+2=6 small bets, right?

Disregarding the rake, if you don't raise, the maximum CO can put in the pot is 2+1+2+2=7 small bets.
At the showdown, the amount in the pot will be .5+1+7+6=14.5 small bets.

Thus if you're paying a time charge to play, so that we can disregard the rake, in order to have favorable odds to call it down you need to win 6/14.5 = ~41.4% to break even.

Your starting hand against CO's range is almost surely at least that good.

In addition, you don't necessarily have to go to showdown. If the flop is
K,Q,J or something else you really dislike, you can check/fold on the second betting round and your cost is only 1 small bet (or you might get a flop you want to bluff or semi-bluff).

So I think you should at least call.

And I'd call with all those other hands too.

I think you have at least 41.4% with all of them.

And then re-evaluate after the flop.

Plus I like defending the big blind.

How I would play after the flop would depend on the flop. There are lots of possibilities.

No. Villain probably doesn't have a better flush draw, but he might. Thinking of your flush draw as the nut flush draw would be over-playing your flush draw.

No.

In general, you need a better low than a flush. In other words, if you make a flush, your flush has a better chance of winning than your low, if you make a low.

Even with an ace on the flop (unless the flop also has a three and a four), you don't have the nut low. However, heads-up you have a decent chance to make the winning low with or without an ace on the flop.

Playing your flush draw or low draw as a nut draw would be over-adjusting.

Now I'll go read the other replies.

Buzz

Sorry, you're correct. My estimate there was way off. In fact he showed up with a hand that PPT puts somewhere between the 27th and 50th %ile.

Blinds are $10 and $15. Rake is something roughly like 5% to $4.

Flop (4.5 SB)
86A

Hero ???

Obviously I'm not being literal, e.g. 5-betting my made flush on an unpaired board on the river because I mistakenly believe it to be the unique nut high. There is a nonzero chance he has a better flush draw in either or both of my suits.

By "(almost) nut" I mean that whereas the value of the low FD would be tiny in a multiway pot, it adds substantial value HU. I can estimate that a small flush on an unpaired board will win > 80% of the time, instead of < 25%.

Sorry. It wasn't obvious to me.

Did you not want me to respond to your post? (I won't answer if you'd rather I didn't).

I think it's even better than that. I think if you make your flush, it will win about three times out of four, compared to one time in four... something like that.

Call. Now you're stuck. You have a made low (the 4th nut low). That's better than drawing for low. You're probably headed for a split (meaning for the most part you'll be gambling 5 to try to win 2)... but you'll at least split often enough to make that a favorable odds gamble for you.

Buzz

Im pretty sure I call with just about any of those hands on your list. In general, I agree with most of the other posts but I'll add some of my thoughts.

If he's a good thinking player, as you've implied because of his adjustments, then I think he's good enough to give you SOME kind of credit for a decent hand to defend, which (unless he thinks youre a super donk) should affect his post flop play.

You will most likely face a C bet on most boards, but I think if you call flop, depending on your image, getting him to check back turn is a real possibility. I think its quite possible you get your hand to showdown for the price of 1.5 BB a lot of the times you hit the flop halfway decent.

Given what you flopped, I don't love it, but I cant see my laying the hand down. I c/c all the way most of the time here unless I happen to hit a really disastrous turn like a 2.

But in general, against a wide range of steal hands, I like to defend with your hand list because most of them have pretty good 2 way equity HU, and the deck should be rich in the aces you need to at least make your decent lo.

Obv. a few of those sample hands are better than the others but I defend them all and c/r that flop about 50% of the time; players that are good at adjusting to table conditions ( like this guy was) will try to steal your blinds way more often; I'm out to tell them that they shouldn't be trying to steal mine.

All the hands you posted I would defend without question. K552 might be close if it was rainbow, but an easy decision to defend double-suited.

btw where in seattle are they playing 15 30 flo8? im going to be there shortly.

+1

I'm in total agreement with Buzz, but will add my two pennies.

No brainer defense IMO. I'm defending all 5 hands.

I'd play my flush "aggressively" if it hits. Not like the nuts as in bet 3 bet, but bet calling for sure. This is assuming we don't flop a monster.

I think playing (almost) any flopped ace like we have 23 is a mistake. Rarely will I play any non-nut low as the nut low, HU or otherwise. I say rarely because if you take this hand with this flop and turn a 3, I might C/C flop CR turn. Of course it depends though.

Regardless, can't fold PF and can't fold once we flop a made low unless the turn is a 2.

I'm curious as well. I live in Seattle and play live at the Hideaway. I've called around and can't seem to find bigger than 6/12 with 2/3 kill.

Nonono, Buzz, I don't want that at all. I learn a lot from your replies and I'm sure I'm not alone.

(You and I would both be more effective writers with a little more concision, but that's just sharing something I'm working on that might be useful feedback to you. Regardless, I value your replies greatly.)
Thanks, this is very helpful, as is the rest of your analysis.

Regarding my use of nuts in the OP (a mistake I won't make again ), I think I picked that up from Deuces Cracked videos, or maybe from other 2+2 threads. Anyway, this use of nuts just means a really strong hand that we're going to play very fast, expecting to win most of the time at showdown. We wouldn't fold our "nut" hand without a very reliable read.


Simple example: KQ in heads up LHE (heads up table, so-called HUHU) on a K83r flop or some such. With only two opponent's hole cards out, it's highly unlikely that we're against AK or a set. HUHU between competent players is very aggressive, so it would be strange to meekly check/call down against mild aggression, say a single flop raise. It's close to 100% that we have the best hand, so figuratively we might say we have the nuts.

It's understood (at least by those paying for videos or spending lots of time reading HHs on 2+2 or wherever I heard this) that the "nut" hands aren't actually the nuts. Perhaps there are many beginners on this forum that wouldn't understand the difference between literal and figurative use of nuts.

I was surprised that you'd never heard this use of the term and that you implicitly interpreted my usage in the OP to be that of a beginner, that's all.

Out of curiosity, did anyone else think I meant playing those like the nuts in a highly literal sense?

The original hand was at the Venetian in Las Vegas. Muckleshoot used to have a very strong $15/30 third-kill LO8, but I hear that PLO has largely killed it off.

The Hideaway started a $10/20 half kill (?) game, but I'm in Vegas and haven't played it yet. Inquire at the Seattle thread in B&M communities for the latest.

I think that to address your question in the OP, when we defend with a hand like this that has weak multi-dimensional potential, we need to be very careful when we flop a one-dimensional hand, and NOT play it anywhere near as strongly as a nut hand. For example, on a flop of JTK, I'm just going to check/fold a 6 high flush draw. but if the flop is A39, I'm going to play the hand strongly and try to put maximum pressure for him to fold a naked ace knowing that very few hands he can have will have us in terrible shape.

Thanks. It is useful feedback.

Semantics.

I have heard the term used as you used it.

Sorry. I wasn't aware I had done that. It wasn't my intention. Please accept my apology.

Buzz

I agree

By the way, thanks to everyone for the feedback. When I run terrible, like most people, I start thinking about what leaks I need to fix, and I have a tendency to tinker in -EV ways with my game.

It's gratifying that most of the reasons expressed ITT corresponds to my reasoning at the table. It's the type of hand where I could easily convince myself I'm defending too loose, though.

In the event, the board ran out 86AJJ, he bet down with 8234, and scooped.

Widening your opening range is not the proper adjustment to toughening game conditions IMO. I would say the opposite is true.

Hmm, I'd like to hear more about this.

I'm open to being convinced you're right, for one big reason: People still defend their blinds pretty loosely. Therefore, if I open really wide in the CO or HJ, I'm still going to be playing weak hands 2- and 3-handed IP (and occasionally running into stronger hands from the button). I don't think 2- or 3-handed vs blinds is that bad a spot since I have position and my opponent's range is very very wide, but it might be reason not to get too frisky with 8432 in the HJ like my opponent did here.

Opening wide certainly adds to my variance.

It depends on what "tough" means I think. I feel like a tough $15/$30 game means more nitty than anything, and we should be opening up and stealing more. If it means tough as in everyone behind you is an expert and will defend blinds correctly as well as 3-betting you wide, then maybe loosening up too much is a mistake but you should prob just get up from the game.