BTN is a reg but not uber tight.

Full Tilt Poker $22 + $2 Pot Limit Omaha Hi/Lo Tournament - t120/t240 Blinds - 5 players
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

Hero (BB): t1050 4.38 BBs
UTG: t2060 8.58 BBs
CO: t3714 15.47 BBs
BTN: t5226 21.77 BBs
SB: t1450 6.04 BBs

Pre Flop: (t360) Hero is BB with 7 8 Q Q
2 folds, BTN raises to t720, 1 fold, Hero ???

Well, I'd have to assume that BTN has A4xx at least, maybe with some high potential as well. You're basically hoping <3 low cards come out, and no A comes out. I would probably fold here. Also, I'm assuming this is a standard 3 spots paid SNG?

You are a small dog to a hand that has an ace with three random cards and flipping with four random low cards. Its pretty hard to come up with a hand the button is raising that you have any kind of real equity against. Combine that with your lack of fold equity and lack of implied odds and it looks like a fold.

i think those of you who are saying its a fold are not paying attention to stack sizes and the position the hero is in. With a stack of 1050 and having 240 of that in the big blind i think this is a clear shove. When the villian pots it you are getting too good a price IMO. Im not the best at math because im a feel player but ill attempt it.

you have 810 left after the blinds and if u play for stacks here the pot will be your 1050 his 1050 and the 120 small blind that means its going to cost you 810 to win a pot of 2220. Ill take my chance with those odds all day

Also the button is most likely playing bigstack poker and punishing the bubble (at least close tot he bubble). Im willing to bet the half the time his hand is fairly weak. One more thing if you fold and save 810 chips you will have 120 in the small blind next hand and are getting short enough that when you do shove you wont have any fold equity anyway

Normally this is a fold.

However you have to look at the stacks and the situation.

BTN is chipleader and you have 1k, it's folded to him and at 120/240 stakes, he doesn't mind getting it in bad for 1k - it's only 20% of his stack. But he knows you mostly just fold and he can run you over.

If you fold here you're down to 690 after posting the SB. You can't afford to wait, you have to gamble. Take the arse end of the flip, maybe sometimes you'll even be ahead.

I'd be all in in this situation, no doubt about it.

Also: edit: didn't read Shaun's post prior to posting.

The raise is not what you wanted, but now I think you're forced to see the flop. If you just call, you'll have t720 invested and t320 left and the pot size will be 1620.

Then if BTN bets, you'll be forced to fold or go all-in. (The pot will be too big to fold). The question is, do you have a better chance if you push now or push on the next betting round. BTN isn't going to fold if you push now, but there's a slim chance BTN will fold if you push on the next betting round.

(Folding is out of the question).

I'd wait, call here and push on the next betting round regardless of the flop, hoping to get BTN to fold. Not much of a chance the ploy will work, but slightly better, I think, than pushing now.

(I don't fault pushing now).

Buzz

I think with this stack size it's push or fold. The problem with a stop & go, or stop & mini-go, is that BTN is only folding his hands that have no value on the flop at all. Now to get that sick-feeling "feel" out of my system and run the numbers on push/fold:

If you fold, you have T$810 for 8.025% equity.

Here are three different range comparisons that show this hand's value is reasonably fixed as a slight dog to decent ranges;

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi/Lo Simulation

600,000 trials (Randomized)

Hand	Pot equity	Scoops	Wins Hi	Ties Hi	Wins Lo	Ties Lo
QdQs7d8c	48.05%	199,356	333,973	3,984	62,811	4,164
40%	51.95%	221,465	262,043	3,984	251,371	4,164

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi/Lo Simulation

600,000 trials (Randomized)

Hand	Pot equity	Scoops	Wins Hi	Ties Hi	Wins Lo	Ties Lo
QdQs7d8c	44.95%	182,138	315,222	2,830	57,345	2,177
20%	55.05%	241,397	281,948	2,830	261,812	2,177

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi/Lo Simulation

600,000 trials (Randomized)

Hand	Pot equity	Scoops	Wins Hi	Ties Hi	Wins Lo	Ties Lo
QdQs7d8c	43.08%	161,398	323,979	0	44,093	114
AK23	56.92%	244,344	276,021	0	299,134	114

I'm gonna use the 20% range for BTN open, even though that's probably overstating it. Shove and we either scoop, lose, or chop. Quarterings or three-quarterings are statistically insignificant.
30% of the time we scoop and hold 2,220 chips for 17.94% equity.
40% of the time we lose and have 0% equity.
30% of the time we chop and hold 1,110 chips for 10.47% equity.
So shoving gives us 8.52% equity (30% * 17.94% + 30% * 10.47% = 8.52%).

That makes shoving 6% better than folding in this spot, which is...not huge, but reason enough.

i hate my hand but i will push anyway.
in my eyes i have allready too much in to fold

ps:wow posted my coment before i saw the stats,didn`t think it is that clear that i have to shove in that spot.

Nah, I botched it--should be closer

That was pretty much what I was thinking.


I like the stop and go but didn't think it was worth it as I was getting called anyway. I think you're right though it's slightly better than just pushing.

This is a jam.

Never let your stack dip below t1000 if you can help it.

Being HU as a small dog (against villains range) with great pot odds is much better than folding.

this is because folding leaves you with t750 and about to hit the small blind of t120. folding SB would then leave you with t630

= no fold equity on any subsequent hands = total disaster

forgive me, i said 690 it could be different.

i tried to get the calculator out but that made Civ 5 go mad on the other screen