4 handed LO8

Preflop:
SB and BB post.
UTG limps, BTN (HERO) limps w/ AQKT, SB folds, BB checks

FLOP: ($0.17)
QQ4
BB checks, UTG Bets, Hero calls

Turn: ($0.27)
5
UTG Bets, Hero calls

River ($0.47)
2
UTG Bets, Hero ?


I called hoping to raise on a safe turn card, but the turn and river were just horrible. Should I have folded on the turn?

You're beating KQJT or some other similar non-heart rundown without an ace, but that's about it. It is short-handed, so trips/top kicker could very well be good for high. Assuming flush for V though, you have max 10 outs to a boat/quads - about 4:1 - but a K makes a higher full house possible, as does an A (plus brings a low/split pot into play), so the pot odds suggest a fold.

On the other hand, the 2 doesn't change much on the river except you're now getting 6:1 on a call and 4th heart on the board gives you 2 flush blockers. A flush/44/55/Q4/Q5 was going to scoop you whether the low hit or not, so might as well call and get info on the villain to use in the future (bets flop with flush draws? trips?).

tl;dr OK to fold turn, but I call turn and river to get info on V for use later in a short-handed cash game.

I would raise this preflop, which I think would make it easier to play. But as played, I think calling down is fine.

Hero needs to see an ace, queen, king, or ten on the turn or river to make a full house. Hero has 10 outs. With 10 outs, the probability Hero will make a full house (or quads) in the next two cards is 0.399.

• the math: 10*9/2/990+10*35/990=0.399

But if UTG doesn't make a heart flush, Hero's set of queens probably will be good for high.

We need to know if UTG is betting a heart draw. I think a better way to determine this than calling would be to raise UTG's flop bet. Thus I think Hero should raise here. And I think UTG should read Hero's raise for what it is, at least a hand with a queen.

How UTG responds to the raise will give Hero a better idea about UTG's holding. And how UTG reacts to the turn and river also will give us a better idea.

By just calling UTG's flop bet, Hero doesn't get a good idea of what UTG holds.

We don't really know whether or not UTG was betting a heart draw on betting round #2 and then was betting a heart flush on betting rounds #3 and #4. If UTG has a heart flush, Hero should fold to UTG's river bet - but UTG may have three queens, just like Hero, or UTG could possibly have an even worse hand.

The way things stand, without knowing, I think the play is to call to find out. But we should have avoided this spot... and I think the way to do that might have been to raise UTG's flop bet.

Ah. I think calling the flop bet was a mistake. (Sorry).

Depends.
After the turn, Hero still has 10 outs, but now only one card to catch one of them. Now the probability Hero will improve is 10/44=0.227. And if the board does pair on the river, there will be no low. Hero's hand odds are 3.4:1

If Hero plans to fold if he doesn't improve on the river, his cost to see the river is 1 big bet. Meanwhile the pot will have 4.5 big bets not contributed by Hero on the last two betting rounds. Thus Hero's implied pot odds are 4.5:1. This ratio is higher than 3.4:1. Thus Hero has favorable odds to see one more card, planning to fold if he misses.

But if Hero plans to call on the river even if he doesn't improve on the river, his cost to see the river is 2 big bets. Meanwhile the pot will have 4.5 big bets not contributed by Hero on the last two betting rounds. Thus Hero's implied pot odds are 4.5:2. This ratio is not higher than 3.4:1. Thus if UTG makes a heart flush on the turn, Hero will not have favorable odds to see one more card, planning to call if he misses.

The question is, "Does UTG make a heart flush on the turn or not?"

One could argue Hero can never know for certain, and that's true. But I think we can get a better idea by raising UTG's flop bet and reading his reaction to the raise.

Buzz

I would raise this preflop, both for value and deception; it's a very premium high only hand.

I would call the turn because you can still scoop but I have no problem folding the end. He'd have to be very ballsy to bet both the turn/river without a flush, a wheel(or something like A6xx where he doesn't feel that he's going to lose both sides).

I prefer a raise on the flop in position because there's a lot of turns that you won't like, and if he doesn't have a full house already, chances are he won't bet into you again even if he turns the nut flush; although he'll probably bet the river if he makes some kind of a low to go with his flush, but by raising the flop, you stand a decent chance of getting the next two streets for free and then folding unimproved won't matter much IF/when the board runs out like dog poop.

You're calling the river?

I might do that *once* if I felt it was imperative to get info on this guy, but other than that I think the river call is a loser most of the time. Even the worst of the worst aren't betting lone trips/worse kicker w/out having some sort of backup for low.

Yeah hes going to show you a variation of A3 next time you should be much more aggressive pre and post, now if hes one of the brain dead types that cant resist a back door low then the result would have been the same and you would have lost much more, but being more aggressive is the right approach now keep in mind 1 way hands will often yield you either half the pot or a small pot..... Flops that connect with HI only hands miss your opponents low hands so they will most likely check fold if there is no low card on the flop, your looking for hands that can have a decent HI with a stronger low that has counterfeit protection for example A23Qss....since the game isnt PLO you ll have a hard time winning a massive pot vs opponenets that devalue hi only hands... One thing that helps me in hand selection is I ask myself can this hand reasonably scoop a pot and it stop me from playing the pretty looking marginal hands like QJT7ds

jam flop for the love of god

agreed. .... raise pre is good ..

as played once you call turn you can't fold this river... you lost minimum here when beat

folding turn isn't the worst either ... I just can't fold any river

Seems I'm the only one here that thinks limping is not such a bad option with this hand. (although I also don't mind limping some strong A23ds hands occasionally to invite other players in hopes of building a big pot) I've been reading Ray Zees book and a few of the concepts in his book suggest raising preflop only adds slightly to your profits.

For ex: From his book; Concept #9 (Pg. 191)
"A lot of raising before the flop adds marginally to your profits, but it adds tremendously to your fluctuations."

Which kind of goes hand in hand with Concept #10 that jamming early only adds a little bit of profit. He mentions this because there is a great deal of luck between your starting hand and the flop. Which seems pretty accurate in any Omaha game.

Is this just a dated argument/strategy?

limping is not bad at all.. depends on game conditions.. thanks for reminding me to finish ray zee's book :thumbs:

raise pre, raise flop. as played it's close, but i fold turn. as played on river, i can go either way.