That's true. But in my opinion this is a terrible flop for Hero and likely not as terrible for Villain.

Without consideration of the rake, Hero would be getting 5:1 full pot odds and 2:1 half pot odds if the betting were over after this betting round... but it's not. There are two more betting rounds. If Hero "calls it down" from here, he should figure he's getting 2:1 implied full pot odds and 1:2 implied half pot odds.

Buzz

i think posters are overlooking some of the problems always folding this flop creates

1. folding this strong a hand on the flop has hidden costs - once ops figure this out, we will greatly reduce the profitability of stronger hands because they will know too much about our (unbalanced) turn range

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi/Lo Simulation

600,000 trials (Randomized)

board: a4t

Hand	Pot equity	Scoops	Wins Hi	Ties Hi	Wins Lo	Ties Lo
ah7djd7s	30.93%	115,427	204,509	26,460	28,093	5,084
25%	69.07%	337,961	369,031	26,460	232,533	5,084

while this flop is unexciting, a quick sim shows that sticking around is unlikely to be more than a tiny mistake on average

2. our actual hand is much less important than what villain thinks we have - we have additional chances to win the pot through bluffs and semi-bluffs..

on this very hand we can eaily try to represent a flush - villain will also check behind some turn cards, generally a good result for us


i think calling this hand a default fold is quite a large mistake without additional knowledge of CO player tendencies

Perhaps. Off hand I don't see any problems with folding this flop... but you seem so sure folding to a bet after the flop is wrong, you're making me wonder if I'm missing something.

But after this flop Hero doesn't have a strong hand.

Even before the flop, Hero's hand seems marginal to me... playable, in my opinion, for blind defense if heads-up after the flop... but (depending on one's opponents) otherwise easily foldable, in general, from any other position before the flop.

Notice that Hero's pair of sevens is more of a liability than an asset after this flop. (Since Hero can only use two cards from his hand, Hero can't use both sevens plus his ace to make a high hand... and your own post flop simulation shows how poor Hero's low chances are). It's not impossible for Hero to end up with a winning hand... say quad sevens or aces full... but the odds are greatly against it. In other words, if Hero does make quad sevens or aces full, Hero can't get paid enough to make the gamble worth the risk.

What do you like about Hero's starting hand? What do you like about Hero's hand after this flop? I honestly don't see what I'm missing. Hero has ****.

I'll concede that staying for one more small bet is a "small" mistake. (I think of a "big" mistake as a mistake that costs Hero the pot whereas a "small" mistake is a mistake that costs Hero one bet). Thus check/calling the flop and check/folding the turn is "only" a small mistake. Nonetheless, in my humble opinion, it's a sloppy, unnecessary mistake... and one that tends to lead to Hero possibly making another mistake on the next betting round and then again on the last betting round.

The time to extricate oneself from this pot is immediately after the flop in my opinion. I don't always advocate "fit or fold" - but in my opinion, a complete miss of the flop with a relatively poor starting hand when out of position clearly calls for check/folding. (What am I missing)???

Yes. We do have additional chances to win the pot through bluffs and semi-bluffs.

I think if you advocate betting this hand after this flop, you're basically advocating betting every hand after every flop. I think of that as playing like a "maniac." (I'm mindful of the name you've chosen for yourself). The problem with that overly aggressive style of play against an opponent who knows the game, as I see it, is you lose additional bets with poorer hands, but you don't win additional bets with better hands.

You don't win additional bets with better hands because your opponent who knows the game folds poor hands to your bets and only continues against you with good hands.

True.

The problem with our hand after this particular flop, aside from the possibility our opponent has the flush draw, is our opponent may have a decent low draw but we don't. Playing high/low-Omaha is not like playing Omaha-high-only or Texas hold 'em high-only.

I agree it's true that Villain will probably check behind after some turn cards. And since we have ****, any non-bet by our opponent is better for us than a bet would be.

I agree that knowing one's opponent affects how one can best play a hand. If I thought that Villain would fold to a bet from Hero after this flop, then I'd advocate betting this flop. But I truly don't think Villain will fold to a bet from Hero after this flop.

I think there are some flops that lend themselves to bluffs in Omaha-8. But I don't think this flop is one of them. There are simply too many ways Villain could have what he thinks is a nice fit with this particular flop.

Buzz

I really like Hero's starting hand against only 1 other player. It has a pair, an ace with a good kicker, meaning I can also make the nut straight. Having flush possibilities is always better than non flush chances. This is a hand that we can frequently take to showdown, and vary out betting patterns.

The pair of 7s is also nice because when we are against A[x-5] hands like a pre-flop opener ioften has, the 7s provide quite a bit of equity. When the 7s aren't providing us equity there is a better chance we have a live low draw.



Now - how much do I like this exact hand after the flop?
Enough to check/call.


Reasons I check call. I expect this pot to belong to Hero roughly 35% of the time and I am not willing to give it up yet. I also expect opponent to bet almost everytime the pot does not belong to him

In addition to being able to represent a flush,we have the possibility of making the nut straght and also the ugly 789tj straight. Our 77 are blockers to any low draw our opponent might have.

Now let's talk about turn cards we like and don't like:

Any A: Great card for us.
2, 3, 5, 6: Unfavorable.
4: Our hand improves marginally.
7: a good card
8: our hand only gets a little worse
9: a good card for us
t: a great card for us
j: The BEST card for us
q: a good card, not as good as the 9
k: like the 4, only a tiny improvement

when calling the flop, we should expect to continue on at least 15 different turn cards, but cautiously

we should plan to lead some turn cards (or specific cards some percentage of the time); we can consider trying to check/raise to represent a flush on a 3rd heart if we acknowledge it is a high-risk play

a better deceptive strategy (Imo) is double barreling to represent the flush or 2-pair+ so we can fold out 2 pair hands and A/better kicker from opponent



The key assumption to the entire hand is what range a raise from CO 5-handed. I think 35% is reasonable. If it is in fact, signifigantly tighter than that peeling the flop becomes more speculatively.

Against that range, OP's line seems ok. In fact, I think leading the turn some percentage of the time is appropiate (probably 20-40%). If we do lead the turn, I am probably folding to a raise and often saving money if that is a bet I would check called on the river and lost.


I'm glad you asked me to expand on my post, because my first response to this thread was quite inadequate.

I like your logic up to here.

See below for simulated data. I think the only turns we should like are jacks, sevens, and aces. And if Villain has an ace with a higher kicker, I don't like aces either.

Interesting.

OK. Let's use 35%.
Here's how AJ77 fares with various clubs on the turn (as simulated):

board	equity
AsTh4h2c	25.16%
AsTh4h3c	25.22%
AsTh4h4c	34.67%
AsTh4h5c	23.88%
AsTh4h6c	28.43%
AsTh4h7c	53.45%
AsTh4h8c	31.75%
AsTh4h9c	39.53%
AsTh4hTc	45.35%
AsTh4hJc	61.55%
AsTh4hQc	37.25%
AsTh4hKc	36.81%
AsTh4hAc	53.46%

I think probably spades or diamonds are about the same as the clubs and hearts are worse. If Villain has hearts, we don't like any hearts.

You seem to like more turns than I do. Looks to me like the only turns we should like are jacks, aces and sevens. (We're behind with everything else)... but because of the size of the pot we're stuck with everything else. And then on the river, because the pot is even larger, we're also stuck.

Knowing there will be a tendency for us to get stuck in the pot if we continue past the flop, I generally prefer to get out immediately after this (missed) flop.

Interesting.

I'm glad too.

Thanks.

Buzz