Tournament hand. I'm 3rd or 4th in chips. blinds re 200/400. I have 23500 in chips. I am in BB with A2KT. (Suits never come into play in this hand.)
UTG folds. Next seat raises minimum to 800. 2 calls, 2 folds, 2 empty seats. I call. 3400 in pot

*** FLOP *** [Qc Js 7d]

checks around.
*** TURN *** [Qc Js 7d] [3h]

I bet out 2000. My thinking is that any card besides 2 or a paired board, and I have at least half, if not a scoop.

villain raises 7400 to 9400 (less thank 2700k left)

I flat call and fold the river to a paired 3. I drop to 9th out of 26 left, with 15 getting paid. (I bust later in 20th)

Did I overestimate my outs? As I counted, 13 give me nut high. 16 give me nut low. 12 pair the board for total air, and 3 counterfeit my low for more air.

29 vs 15. 2 to 1. Calling 7400 with a pot of 12800, odds look OK, but I don't play strict pot odds only when deep in a tournament.

Am I overplaying the big draw?
What factors do the tournament places and proximity to the money have in play that I may be missing?

Of course if I scoop the pot, I doubt I post the question. This may be just hindsight. A non-biased set of eyes on it would help though.

Pot the Flop.

Check / Call the turn. The turn did not help. You are playing for the high, not to get quartered on the low.

The turn bet is terrible because you are forcing out possible 2nd best hands which might pay you off on the river if you hit.
You want to see the river as cheep as possible.

If you hit the low you may get quartered, and if you hit the high someone else may have the same straight.
There are really only 10 outs to scoop as the ace will put a low on the board for a likely split.

I might even raise preflop since you have a monster hand as well as healthy stack, and there will be 1600 in dead chips in the pot if only 1 player calls.

pot the flop

No.

OK.

I favor betting this flop rather than checking. (That might have made it worse for you).

No.

Correct.

No.

I can't think of anything. When you expect to win 2/3 there still is that chance of losing 1/3, and that's what happened here.

Buzz

Buzz, either that is a nice level or you are way off your game.
He very clearly overestimated his outs.
Only 10 outs would give him a scoop, compared with 16 outs that may leave him quartered or at best split.

10 scoops
19 splits (possibly quartered on some)
15 bricks

Looks to me like your putting in lots of chips to try and win half the pot.

Neither.

SmackeytheFrog wrote:
And that is correct.

That's correct too. (The three aces are possible split pot outs).

Buzz

Thanks for the analysis guys. My sneaking suspicion was that I failed to lead out on the flop, and that seems to be the consensus.

As for the outs to a split high, if that happens, there is no low, and I don't mind that risk on a broadway, or 9-K nut straight. I do see the quartering risk undermined my pot odds a bit more than I thought. The bet would have been good on the flop, disastrous on the turn as it was.