I'm playing low stakes PLO HiLo, in the hi-jack seat and pick up the following fantastic hand:

A2A4, one guy limped from the UTG+1, and I potted it. The button a fairly loose player and a bit of a calling station once involved in a hand (but not a terrible player) calls this and everyone else folds.

The flop comes:

JT8

which is not the flop I had in mind, needless to say. These cards are exactly the type of garbage the calling station might play. The fact that I have 4 black cards doesn't provide much of an argument against the Villian holding two diamonds, and if I throw out a pot-sized bet I suspect he will just call it denying me any more information. So I check, and so does he. The turn brings the K, I check, he throws out a pot-sized bet and I fold. I was up about a full buy-in at the time, and didn't feel like losing a significant amount of money when I had no idea of where I am at.

However, I think betting the pot on the turn and folding if he raises the pot might be better. How would you lot play this one?

It's possible Villain has diamonds, but unlikely. I think it's close to 4 to 1 Villain does not have diamonds. And as simulated it's close to 4 to 1 Villain does not have cards that will make a straight. Together, that make it about 3 to 2 against Villain making a flush or straight. However, that written, Villain with random cards is a substantial favorite after this flop.

ProPokerTools -
Omaha Hi/Lo Simulator
Omaha Hi/Lo Simulation
600,000 trials (Randomized)
board: JdTd8d
Hand........ Pot equity.... Scoops
Ac2cAs4s... 43.77% ...... 213,247
****......... 56.23% ...... 288,171

All of that written, what to do just depends on how your opponent will react.

Buzz

yes?

FR or 6max?

(try potting the flop.)

Maybe he will and maybe he wont so lets just try it. Generally the first one to bet has the advantage of reping the Ad

If I had the Ad, I pot the flop every time. If villain is tight, he should have an ace most times (50/50 it is the Ad), and he might have been waiting to CR your C-bet. I prefer to make a smaller bet on the flop repping a flush of indeterminate strength. As Buzz mentions, villain will not have a flush most times and should go away. If villain calls a small flop bet with a low flush, you may get a free turn card to make backdoor low. If you don't bet something on the flop, villain probably bets out on the turn with a non-nut flush.

If you never make less than PSB with NF on the flop, then a strong villain might see through this. Also, there is some risk that villain bluff-CR's a smallish flop bet with bare Ad.

Effen

you played the hand fine but this mentality will be your achilles heel if you don't know how to manipulate it.

if people think you are scared of giving back profits, you can trap much more. otherwise they'll run all over you while you sit on winnings.

Your description of villain makes it a bit more difficult to give a clear recommendation. That said, this is a spot where we want to lead out-cbet-probe for info, or check out with a stranded monster. If the former, the hand likely becomes pretty clear-cut. If villain is looseish but not bad, will he call with a backdoor low and a worse high? If so you should cbet here. If he continues the action on the flop it's an easy dump. If you go passive, you need to remember this and feign the same action in a future hand where you can snap off a bluff or trap with a legit hand. But as howzit said, if you're thinking that your chips are money, be very careful with that mentality. They are money once you stand up, but until then they are leverage to win pots.

The button a fairly loose player and a bit of a calling station once involved in a hand

This argues for taking a check/fold line. Against a weak-tight player who might fold a weak two pair or a non-nut flush draw betting would make sense; against someone who calls too much it makes more sense to ditch this hand and wait for a better flop.

fold against a loose player and bet into a tight player.


this counterintuitive thinking is one of the key ideas to making HU continuation bets on the flop.

however some loose players seem to be very afraid of certain things. three flushed boards happen to be one of them.

the reason aa24ss is great is you're going to scoop or quarter people. betting and check/folding probably will get similar results in the long run as pot-betting the flop. if you bet and he calls, you have to check/fold after, so you'll win half the times and lose half the times, roughly the same as check/folding right on the flop. i personally don't like building pots when i have a weak hand like that, so i would try to check it down and hope for a split.

bottom line, this is a terrible flop for you. don't torture yourself over it, you were never going to make a lot of money on this one, any way you play.

Lets face it this is about the worst flop for AA42 you can find (there are worse but not many). You are out of position to a calling station, also bad. Your only redraw is a runner low (25%).

However, you cannot give up on this hand considering the strength you showed already. My recommendation is to bet the flop as if you flopped a mid flush. Lead out with a smallish value bet say 1/3 pot or even less. Remember, if your calling station missed the flush, he's also likely to have poor to no draws. If he flopped two pair, your AA can still counterfeit him if the board pairs later on. If he raises your 1/3 bet, easy laydown. If he flat calls, and the turn comes a low card, you again bet 1/3 pot. He may fold, putting you on flush now. He may put you on a flush plus a nut low draw, since your bet of 1/3 on the turn is too small to protect a made flush w no low draw.

In any event, in my opinion the value bet on the flop is mandatory. And its very important to think of it as a value bet when you make it. That is the key to successful bluffs. Trickery of the mind, not his mind, yours. And then by extension, his.

+1 w/ above, bet/fold
It's tough to lay down such a sweet starting hand but if you whiff as obscenely bad as you did on this flop, gotta take a small stab as greenpoker says to see if he caught any of it, and then you kiss away the hand you've been folding for for the past 5 rounds.

do you only do this heads up? What are you doing with 3,4 players in the hand?

Vs. multiple opponents I am likey to shut down completely in the hand and fold to any bet, especially if the opponents are loose. Clearly you cannot call hoping on a runner low. And betting in this spot is like throwing your money down a well, where the wish will not come true.

Villian is a calling station so it is a tough choice but I would bet the pot on the flop, if he calls check it down. You don't want to take the chance he does not have 2 diamonds and being a calling station you are not going to bet him out of the pot if he calls you flop bet.

As it was played, he bet the turn because you showed weakness on the flop and turn.

Low stakes? Testing the water with a bet between 1/2 and 2/3 of the pot is rarely a bad idea. IMO, if you don't do this on regular basis, you miss ton of equity. Most opponents play their cards, not yours.

i certainly think u shouldve folded the aa24 double suited as soon as there was a bet. and me i wouldnt ever have to worry about giving back winnings cause id leave the game once i got ahead, although im not so dumb i would get up before the blind got back around to me. hoping to see u in the game at binions tonite.