Villain is a reg who will not fold A2 but will go into c/c mode once it gets there. Betting turn or peel freebie since I can't beat any other A2 and have no protection?


Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 Pot Limit Omaha Hi/Lo - 6 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter By DeucesCracked Poker Videos

BTN: $29.80
SB: $50.50
BB: $50.00
Hero (UTG): $50.00
MP: $96.70
CO: $92.45

Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is UTG with A 7 9 2
Hero raises to $1.75, MP calls $1.75, 2 folds, SB calls $1.50, 1 fold

Flop: ($5.75) T 3 8 (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $5.75, MP folds, SB calls $5.75

Turn: ($17.25) 4 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero ??

Bet the pot to make him fold his high hands and draws. If he calls and you don't make your straight you can check back the river.

This does not mean you should double barrel all your nut lows against a reg but only nut lows with an additional feature. For me this means any pair or better, oesd, flush draw or a gutshot + counterfeit protection.

if you're really confident he has nut low, check.

Not sure I am "confident" of it but his range includes a lot of A2 hands 4 sure.

Without an aggro dynamic between the 2 of you, I like usually checking. Why?
-You're behind A2xx, & don't necessarily want A4 pair/draw -or- sets -or- high-draw style hands to fold/call/raise yet.
-You're more likely to get paid off lighter/save quartering money/successfully nut-bluff river given the extra information on the next street IMO

Hand looks simple enough, yet I'm having problems saying what I'd like to say . Hoping you bet pot, got re-raised & spiked river.

You have a good two way hand. I think that you have to bet it. It is to your advantage to have another A2xx in the pot as you have nut-nut possibilities. It is pot limit, so you limit your upside without betting the turn.

Prob bet like 1/2 to 2/3 might as well build the pot in case you smash the river. If you brick the river check it.

If you know he's not raising you when he has you quartered, pot (and take free showdown in you don't improve)

If Villain has A2**, he almost certainly (~81%) has Hero beat for high if the game stopped at this point. All he needs as one of his other two cards is a king, queen, jack, ten, eight, four, or trey. That's twenty four cards out of forty three with two slots.

Here's the math for that 81%:
1-19*18/43/42=~81%.

Hero does have some chance of hitting on the river, but let's disregard that for now.

When Hero gets quartered, he loses half of what he bets. And when Hero quarters his opponent, he gains half of what he bets. The amount already in the pot is unaffected. The amount already in the pot is distributed, 3/4 to one player and 1/4 to the other player. Making one more bet, so long as the opponent calls the bet, doesn't affect the distribution of the amount already in the pot before the bet.

The only way the distribution of the amount already in the pot before the bet is affected is if one opponent folds to the bet. In that case, the bettor scoops.

So if Hero bets and Villain folds a hand that would have won the high half of the pot, Hero gains half of what was already in the pot, $8.63.

But if Hero bets and Villain continues with A2**, then Hero expects to gain half of what he bets one fifth of the time but lose one half of what he bets four fifths of the time. Hero expects to average losing $5.18.
$8.63*1/5-8.63*4/5=-$8.63*3/5=$5.18

To make this a good bet, Hero has to win $8.63 by inducing Villain to fold a high only hand often enough to offset his anticipated -$5.18 loss when Villain has A2**.

Specifically,
$8.63F-$5.18(1-F)=0
$13.81F=$5.18
F=5.18/13.81=0.375
(That's the equivalent of 37.5% or 3/8).

Thus if Villain has A2** five times out of eight (or more), then betting will show a net loss.

But if Villain only has A2** three times out of eight (or less), then betting will show a net gain.

Slightly messy math, but a rather clear result.

Now you just have to guess how often Villain has A2** in order to play this way (mainly call Hero's $5.75 flop bet and then check the turn). In a six handed game, one of five opponents would be expected to also have been dealt A2** roughly 25% of the time. But when Villain defends his small blind and then calls Hero's $5.75 flop bet, the fraction of the time he actually has A2** increases from the 25%. I don't know your opponent, but my guess is he has A2** at least 37.5%, and thus betting is unfavorable.

The downside of checking behind is if you check behind, he may come out swinging on the river, and then you're more or less stuck calling (or raising if you're a wild man). Against some opponents you might forestall Villain's river bet by betting a relatively small amount here - but against other opponents, you'll get that bet shoved up your nose (or the other end).

I'd opt to check. Then on the river, I'd reassess.

Buzz

it's not the end of the world checking even if you're not that confident he has nut low. oftentimes if he doesn't have nut low, on the river typical villain will check unless he made some sort of nut high hand. in these events (where you don't improve for high as well) you can typically bet pot w/ no fear to get him off whatever he has as you will have a cinch for half the pot with great frequency.

if he does have nut low he will typically bet and then you are forced to call hoping he has a high hand instead. calling with that mindset may/may not be a mistake, but i'm a limit player and rarely ever fold nut low. it's one of the few grey areas for me in plo8.

From OPs intro and the play of the hand I doubt there would be much swinging going on expect if villain makes a straight so I would check it for sure with no high and a passive villain.