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$6 MTT - hypothetical bubble question

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07-08-2013 , 04:13 AM

atothek

journeyman

Join Date: Jul 2011 Posts: 301

BB: 170,613 (17.1 bb)
MP: 106,454 (10.6 bb)
Hero (SB): 72,462 (7.2 bb)
CO: 21,652 (2.2 bb)
BTN: 51,812 (5.2 bb)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A

3 folds, Hero raises to 30,000, BB folds

This is on the bubble, down to 11 players over 2 tables. I have AA93 and open vs the big stack when it folds to me. Over on the other table there are 3 people whose stacks are 2bb or less.

IF the big stack shoves on me, is this a turbo call or turbo fold?

Sorry if the question is too simple/naive, but I have no idea what to do.

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07-08-2013 , 04:16 AM

OmahaDonk

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Join Date: Apr 2011 Posts: 6,971

Quote:

Originally Posted by atothek

BB: 170,613 (17.1 bb)
MP: 106,454 (10.6 bb)
Hero (SB): 72,462 (7.2 bb)
CO: 21,652 (2.2 bb)
BTN: 51,812 (5.2 bb)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A

This is probably an open fold. Once you open you go with it.

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07-08-2013 , 05:08 AM

streityboy

veteran

Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 2,551

You can never open fold you have stuck half your stack in almost. You are either folding or raising and I am not folding. You are all pretty shallow I can't see myself folding this.

Last edited by streityboy; 07-08-2013 at 05:21 AM. Reason: Correcting my post because of my early morning use of confusing semantics:)

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07-08-2013 , 05:13 AM

BadAstronaut

journeyman

Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 253

When you say "open fold", does that phrase mean that you just fold when it is your turn to act, or that you raise when it is your turn to act, but fold to a reraise?

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07-08-2013 , 09:54 AM

Buzz

gramps

Join Date: Sep 2002 Posts: 18,254

Quote:

Originally Posted by atothek

BB: 170,613 (17.1 bb)
MP: 106,454 (10.6 bb)
Hero (SB): 72,462 (7.2 bb)
CO: 21,652 (2.2 bb)
BTN: 51,812 (5.2 bb)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A

I'd call. I wouldn't like it, but I'd call.

Buzz

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07-08-2013 , 01:39 PM

OmahaDonk

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Join Date: Apr 2011 Posts: 6,971

Open fold = never put another chip more than the SB. We're rainbow, scoopable, and everyone is busting out at table 2.

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07-08-2013 , 02:41 PM

cfreaks

old hand

Join Date: Feb 2009 Posts: 1,420

Quote:

Originally Posted by OmahaDonk

Open fold = never put another chip more than the SB. We're rainbow, scoopable, and everyone is busting out at table 2.

I open LOLd

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07-08-2013 , 03:43 PM

UnnaturalDisaster

old hand

Join Date: Jun 2011 Posts: 1,543

Are there really 3 threads on the front page with guys wanting to fold AAxx on the bubble? LOL

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07-08-2013 , 03:44 PM

a_____PLUS

banned

Join Date: Jan 2013 Posts: 583

Quit poker if you seriously consider raise/folding this.

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07-08-2013 , 04:36 PM

#10

Macr0s_

journeyman

Join Date: Aug 2012 Posts: 217

Quote:

Originally Posted by UnnaturalDisaster

Are there really 3 threads on the front page with guys wanting to fold AAxx on the bubble? LOL

Not only AA, they are AA2/AA3's

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07-08-2013 , 06:00 PM

#11

streityboy

veteran

Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 2,551

Quote:

Originally Posted by UnnaturalDisaster

Are there really 3 threads on the front page with guys wanting to fold AAxx on the bubble? LOL

Have you ever asked yourself the question, how you make money from hypers yet J

? This is a pretty standard question!!

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07-08-2013 , 06:25 PM

#12

atothek

journeyman

Join Date: Jul 2011 Posts: 301

Quote:

Originally Posted by a_____PLUS

Quit poker if you seriously consider raise/folding this.

**** me! What an eye-opener! Do you think it's too late to quit now?!

I did not consider folding if I got shoved on. I just wanted to see what people have to say re: this hand in this situation.

Thank you, all.

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07-08-2013 , 06:59 PM

#13

streityboy

veteran

Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 2,551

Quote:

Originally Posted by atothek

Just have a plan to know what you are going to do if x y or z happens. You can't open for half your stack and then fold. Mathematically you are getting the odds with way worse hands than AA39. This hand, you have two choices. Raise or fold. You never have the option to raise fold ever. Don't play with fear. You have a monster HU. You want him to reship here.

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07-08-2013 , 09:21 PM

#14

OmahaDonk

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Join Date: Apr 2011 Posts: 6,971

3 guys are about to bust out on the bubble. We get scooped here almost 25% of the time. It's an open fold, lol all you want

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07-08-2013 , 10:01 PM

#15

cfreaks

old hand

Join Date: Feb 2009 Posts: 1,420

This is so unlike the WSOP thread. Double up here means the chip lead and a good chance to win. Double up there and you have 8 BBs where the average is over 30 (blinds go to 8/16 when bubble bursts).

Quote:

lol all you want

LOL

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07-08-2013 , 11:38 PM

#16

OmahaDonk

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Apr 2011 Posts: 6,971

Is big stack tourney chip leader? I might be jumping to your side cfreaks.

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07-09-2013 , 12:41 AM

#17

plaaynde

Poker Historian

Join Date: Jan 2010 Posts: 20,418

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi/Lo Simulation[/URL]

600,000 trials (Randomized)

Hand	Pot equity	Scoops	Wins Hi	Ties Hi	Wins Lo	Ties Lo
Ac 3d As 9h	62.34%	283,276	367,091	6,938	168,953	20,477
50%	37.66%	138,025	225,971	6,938	107,282	20,477

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi/Lo Simulation[/URL]

600,000 trials (Randomized)

Hand	Pot equity	Scoops	Wins Hi	Ties Hi	Wins Lo	Ties Lo
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20%	38.89%	135,755	201,178	22,313	127,302	54,258

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi/Lo Simulation[/URL]

600,000 trials (Randomized)

Hand	Pot equity	Scoops	Wins Hi	Ties Hi	Wins Lo	Ties Lo
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10%	41.47%	137,812	191,022	46,455	147,674	64,585

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi/Lo Simulation[/URL]

600,000 trials (Randomized)

Hand	Pot equity	Scoops	Wins Hi	Ties Hi	Wins Lo	Ties Lo
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5%	44.53%	139,156	186,512	91,156	157,164	58,164

As a middle stack you can shove. Winning prospects are good if getting called, and instead of folding your sb you very likely get BB to fold, that's a win of 1,5bb, which is very nice for you stack.

You may still have to "play poker" though. What if BB just calls?

Last edited by plaaynde; 07-09-2013 at 12:50 AM.

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07-09-2013 , 06:42 PM

#18

a_____PLUS

banned

Join Date: Jan 2013 Posts: 583

Quote:

Originally Posted by atothek

**** me! What an eye-opener! Do you think it's too late to quit now?!

Maybe just stop making threads about no brainer situations you lost?

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07-10-2013 , 05:41 AM

#19

OmahaDonk

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Join Date: Apr 2011 Posts: 6,971

This is not a no-brainer. We have a hand whose equity barely increases the wider BB calls and he can well afford to bust us. Realizing that a double up puts us at or near chip lead makes this an interesting situation.

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07-10-2013 , 01:40 PM

#20

a_____PLUS

banned

Join Date: Jan 2013 Posts: 583

Quote:

Originally Posted by OmahaDonk

This is not a no-brainer.

We have aces with a 7bb stack. We´re never folding. Once we do raise and get called, SPR is like 0,5 on the flop, so all the money is getting in no matter what. It obviously sucks if we bust here, but I don´t think there´s too much to think about in this situation.

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07-10-2013 , 01:53 PM

#21

plaaynde

Poker Historian

Join Date: Jan 2010 Posts: 20,418

If BB just calls pre, it's probably best to go all-in on the flop no matter what. Then the Aces still have some of that preflop equity. You don't want BB to have a chance to fold on later streets if he misses completely, alternatively sit there and wait for drawing you out. He may fold on the flop though, that's really not bothering you...

Last edited by plaaynde; 07-10-2013 at 02:01 PM.

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07-10-2013 , 02:01 PM

#22

atothek

journeyman

Join Date: Jul 2011 Posts: 301

Quote:

Originally Posted by plaaynde

If BB just calls pre, it's probably best to go all-in on the flop no matter what. Then the Aces still have some of that preflop equity. You don't want BB to have a chance to fold on later streets if he misses completely. He may fold on the flop though, that's really not bothering you...

That's what I was gonna do pretty much.

I was gonna go with the hand no matter what. All I wanted to know was whether I should've played the hand at all or not, considering I was almost guaranteed to be ITM.

I'm sorry for my standard posts : )

Last edited by atothek; 07-10-2013 at 02:01 PM. Reason: didn't lose this one though!

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07-10-2013 , 02:04 PM

#23

plaaynde

Poker Historian

Join Date: Jan 2010 Posts: 20,418

Quote:

Originally Posted by atothek

All I wanted to know was whether I should've played the hand at all or not, considering I was almost guaranteed to be ITM.

I'm sorry for my standard posts : )

Don't be sorry. Predator presented a very special situation in a MTT, with a substantial bubble cash, small stack, but many even smaller. There it may be good to fold until the bubble bursts. Most often not. Really good we have had this discussion with different examples.

Last edited by plaaynde; 07-10-2013 at 02:09 PM.

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07-10-2013 , 02:56 PM

#24

OmahaDonk

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Final answer: After some deliberation I'm going with it. I think it's close and not faulting anyone for open fold. Stats on BB would help make this an easier decision. Note that if he's calling too wide that actually hurts us here.

And of course auto-shove flop and/or snap call pre if you're opening.

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