with regard to scenario 2: where hero has AdTdAc9s9h
given the preflop action preceding hero its very complicated to concern oneself with all possible outcomes. it can be 4bet after hero flats, or there can be between 0 and 4 calls (that is hu on the flop all the way up to 6way on the flop).
but taking the following very literally
Quote:
I defy anyone at the table to show me math that says calling there in a 3bet pot ever could be profitable
and perhaps giving the flatting argument some traction I'm going to look at the problem by limiting the postflop possible outcomes.
defining the scenario as hero flatting $115 ($885 behind) the aggro villian flatting with a wider range and the other 3 callers folding.
its 3way to a flop pot of $400* (* hard to tell exactly what the 1st preflop pot amount is when the 3bet is $115)
if hero flatted preflop with the intent of folding when he flops less then trips and leading/going to showdown when he flops trips or better.
then 77.5% of the time he ck/folds the flop. hero losses $115.
lets say 5.5% of the time both villian's fold or hero flopped such a monster that he slowplays but neaither villian contributes more to the pot. hero profits $285.
that leaves 17% of the time remaining where hero flopped better then trips. hero must make an additional $150 postflop profit on avg. for the 17% of the time for hero to profit from flatting.
.775 *-115 = -89.13
.055 *+285 = +15.68
.17 * +435 = +73.95
100% = +.50
so, how might hero profit enough postflop those 17% of the time
if postflop 1 villian folds while the other calls and then folds the river,
it the bet the bet the villian called needs to be atleast $150. consequently, it should be clear that if they both call and subsequently fold hero profits.
if postflop 1 villian contributes $200 and folds before showdown, and it goes allin for hero's remaining $885, with the other villian, the pot at showdown will be $2370. hero needs 60.55% equity to profit(hero avg. equity is likely close) if the dead$ is $300 then hero's equity needs only be 58.1%
if postflop 1 villian folds and it goes allin for hero's remaining $885 with the other villian, the pot at showdown will be $2170. hero needs 66.2% equity (hero avg. equity is likely lower)
if postflop both villians go allin for hero's remain $885, the pot at showdown will be $3055. hero needs 47% equity (hero avg. equity is likely higher)
on balance, flatting to 3way on the flop, i think its close. its +/-EV
of course there is a question concerning the ~9% of flops where hero flops less then trips but has excellent equity.
additionally, if they both fold postflop 10% ott instead of just 5.5% then the 12.5% of the time they don't fold hero must profit $485 or an additional $200 postflop, which is obviously much harder to do then $150.
on the other hand:
if we change the scenerio, add another preflop caller,such that it 4way on the flop, with a flop pot of $515*
there will be not many fewer flops where hero flops trips or better, lets call it 21% instead of the 22.5% 3way. there will however be fewer flops where hero has very good equity when he has flopped less then trips(but this makes life simpler).
if all 3 villians fold postflop without contributing to the pot 5% of the time
.79 * -115 = -90.85
.05 * +400 =+20
.16 * +443 =+70.88
100% =.03
hero only has to make an additional $3 postflop rather then $150 or $200 he needed to make in the 3way scenerio. I think if its 4 way to the flop its +EV for hero to flat preflop.
Last edited by ngFTW; 03-22-2016 at 02:34 PM.