4 handed on the bubble and the original raiser on the BTN is reasonably tight over a smallish sample size-VPIP 17 and PFR of just 6.

Dealt K A K 3 in the SB, with the very loose short stack in BB. With my stack size, tight raising range of BTN and the wide calling range of BB(vpip 60+) I folded. Correct?

I thought a 3 bet would maybe get BTN to fold and get HU with the loose BB. I considered a call which didn't leave me commited on the flop and a jam any half decent flop but OOP the 3 bet preflop seems preferable. I would obviously rather play this 2 handed rather than 3 handed but this would mean folding out original raiser and committing 80% of the stack to do so.

Any considered thoughts appreciated. Raise, call or fold?

Poker Stars $15+$1 Pot Limit Omaha Hi/Lo Tournament - t150/t300 Blinds - 4 players - View hand 541906
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

Hero (SB): t3900 M = 8.67
BB: t1590 M = 3.53
CO: t2435 M = 5.41
BTN: t5575 M = 12.39

Pre Flop: (t450) Hero is SB with K A K 3
1 fold, BTN raises to t1050

Hero?

Interesting.

I can imagine you fold or call and check down the BB.

But the BTN doesn't need such a strong hand against the loose BB.
He probably has something like AQ42 or AJJ2.
It is less likely he holds both aces, since you already have one.
Big chance you got him dominated.

So how about reraising the pot?
Balls will win and I wonder if the BTN has them.

i agree 100% with flyingdutchman

I am never folding here with Push>Smooth

I'm shoving here all day. BTN could have a wide range since he's short on chips and I'm never smoothing when the BTN has around 600 chips left after the 1050 raise.

I agree. THis is much different than the other thread posted about bubble play since you have a money 2 way hand.

BTN is chip leader btw and starts the hand with over 5k.

Oops read the BB's stack for the BTN. Well I guess the chip leader raising on the button is another strong argument for jamming here. I still HATE folding.

I would never fold this. Trying to fold into the money is the worst possible strat IMO.

Ship this hand - you are very likely in great shape against button (large stack aggressor on the bubble can have almost any hand)

What ever you do in this game don't become the victim of pwning.

One final thought - the payout structure really means that pushing for a win is critical in getting a decent ROI over time - 3rds really don't add up to much - push for the win your risk of ruin is only slight anyway.

Bob

I'd either fold or raise all-in to possibly push Button out of the pot.

Impossible to know if a relatively unfamiliar opponent is trying a steal with a worse starting hand than Hero's. And then impossible to know if Villain, even with a somewhat worse hand, will fold to a push from Hero.

Trouble is, I think Button is going to call the all-in push. And if the all-in push won't work, then what's the point in trying it? (rhetorical)

Tough decision.

I think I'd push all-in. Take my chances against Villain. Hero's probably ahead here and takes the lead if successful. I hate playing that way but sometimes you're forced by circumstances to make a play you don't really like.

Buzz

Sorry but this is one of the easier posts to reply to, this is 100% a clear shove everytime around for value.

+1

The point highlighted was my main area of concern. I know my hand is best but I also know that BTN is TIGHT and even with the bubble consideration is opening nowhere near as wide as has been suggested (and actually wasn't). I hate hate folding here but I do not have enough history to know whether BTN will use his fold equity. Imperfect information. It is not a matter of folding into the money here....I am not that sort of player...I know if he calls I am flipping on the bubble when I don't need to be with two donks to my left. It is actually the use of 2+2 that has rendered this "alternative" thought process in this spot....it has ruined my NL O8 game and improved my PLO8 SNG game

lol. were looking for a call when we push

Mine too.

I wouldn't go that far. If Villain has AA**, then Villain is ahead, probably by ~3:2. With AAW* or AAWW, Villain is ahead, maybe ~2:1. It's unlikely Villain has AA** or better, but not impossible. (Villain did, after all, make a big push raise).

I'm probably going to push all-in here, but it's not as easy for me to do that as it evidently is for some mind sets.

Risking tournament death before I see the flop is not the way I want to play the game.

Exactly.

How interesting!

Buzz

Kind of ironic I suppose.

You're looking for a call if you push all-in.

I'm hoping for a fold if I push all-in. I'm happy to go up T1350 to T5250 with BB at T4525 after BB folds to the push.

I'll try to explain my reasoning: Let's suppose we're a 3:2 favorite. We're not even sure of that. We could easily be close to a coin flip or even behind. But let's say we're a 3:2 favorite...
• Three times out of five we win this pot and become chip leader but fail to knock out Villain (since Villain started with a bigger stack). We're in better shape, but still not assured of winning any money. A couple of lucky hands for someone and they're right back in our face.
• Two times out of five we're tournament dead. We're out of the tournament and we win no money.

If BB folds, we're assured of ending this hand with T5250.

If BB calls, at the conclusion of this one hand, assuming we're a 3:2 favorite (my best guess), we end up with T7800 60% of the time and we end up with nothing at all 40% of the time.
T7800*0.60 is only T4680. Compare that with our expected stack worth, T5250, if Villain folds.

We have to be assured of winning 67.3% of the time to have Villain calling better than Villain folding. That's better than 2:1. Our hand is simply not that good.

• Here's the math:
  5250/7800=67.3%

And that's for a ring game! If we have any sense, we should be more concerned about surviving a hand in a tournament than in a ring game.

Buzz

I mean free chips is always great,

but what i meant by were hoping for a call is that were going to pushing here with such a wider range that were fist pumping with this hand and hoping to get it in.

Ummm no we're not. I'll just break it down into more bitsize chunks than the very methodical analysis Buzz has evidently outlined. Here is why.

ac kh ks 3s 49.19%
5% 50.81%

ac kh ks 3s 54.52%
10% 45.48%

ac kh ks 3s 57.11%
15% 42.89%

We aren't raising for value as one poster put....we are raising for btn to fold and go HU with spazzer in the BB.

I think your logic is fuzzy.

You seem to be saying you're going to push with so much garbage where you'd hate to be called, now that you finally have a nice starting hand, you want to get called.

What you don't seem to understand is Hero shouldn't want to get called in either case. Hero fares better, on average, if Villain folds to Hero's push, even though Hero has a decent starting hand this time.

We're not playing Texas hold 'em where we might be hugely ahead. This is Omaha-8 where starting hand values run closer than in Texas hold 'em.

Raising hand ranges are highly opponent dependent, but I think your hand is probably ahead of Villain's range this time. However it's not far enough ahead to merit preferring Villain to call. You should want Villain to fold here, if you push all-in.

I'm probably going to push all-in anyhow, but the shove would not be without misgivings.

There's a greater risk than you seem to realize.

Buzz

I don't get it. your analysis says that you are favourite against all but the top 5% of hands - yet you don't seem to want a call.

The myth we need to dispel here in that its bad to race on the bubble. In NLH SNG's its bad to race on the bubble however in PLO8 SNG's the cardinal sin is not racing.

The reason for this is simple - every time you race (with a good 2 way hand) the most likely out come is that you split the blinds. Great. The people who are folding are missing out on all this value and worse - they become targets for pwning by aggressive players who will steal their blinds relentlessly.

IMO weakness on the bubble is the biggest leak in otherwise good players games.

Bob

I should have amended to say that we PREFER a fold all day but that we are racing against anything else as suggested. I don't mind racing on the bubble here but I PREFER a fold after the repop.

Split pot games are obviously different no one is disputing that. Stack sizes are relevant here. Of course you get it in shallower and can call/shove if deeper. To me it is an awkward stack size. Maybe I am too conservative sometimes and thats a leak....ummmmmm.

Oh yeah you are def right about this - no doubt! However just about the only way we get a fold here is if villain misclicks...

Hey we all got leaks. Mine is in the other direction - way too much gambool in these sometimes.

GL,
Bob

Really....my stats on you Bob suggest you are quite tight for the most part. Will have to amend for short handed

We aren't racing; we're significantly ahead of anything except AAxx. This is too golden a spot to pass up.

LOL what?

forget my emotional response to when im called here.

To be playing otimally on the bubble here our shoving range is SOOOOOO much wider. this is hand is pretty much the nuts. once a billion someone wakes up with aces. tough love

as were ahead of the hands were called by like 99% of the time. I FIST PUMP