Villain is new to the table one rotation ago.

Is checking behind on the turn standard here or is it weak? Of course I am fearing CR and getting freerolled for my stack. any thoughts?

ty bob


Poker Stars $15.00+$1.50 Pot Limit Omaha Hi/Lo Tournament - t100/t200 Blinds - 5 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

SB: t5613 M = 18.71
BB: t9605 M = 32.02
UTG: t8508 M = 28.36
CO: t12614 M = 42.05
Hero (BTN): t6725 M = 22.42

Pre Flop: (t300) Hero is BTN with 2 A 9 A
2 folds, Hero raises to t500, 1 fold, BB calls t300

Flop: (t1100) J A 4 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets t800, BB calls t800

Turn: (t2700) 6 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks

River: (t2700) K (2 players)
BB bets t2700, Hero folds

Right to bet flop and right to probably fold the river. Retrospectively, looking at his line, you have to question whether if you had bet the turn he would have folded his likely flush draw. If he has just a high flush draw then a bet may succeed but if he was check calling the flop with a decent low and as well as a flush draw he is probably check calling a bet on the turn as well (but it depends on your opponent). I think you played this one fine Bob.

It's tough, because he might already have the nut low.

But at the same time, you don't want to let him have a free draw for diamonds or clubs. You also don't want him continuing with a poor low he might fold to a bet.

BB calls a pre-flop raise and then check/calls this flop. What can he have?

Trouble is, what he can have partly depends on what he thinks you have.

He probably has a low draw maybe plus something, not necessarily diamonds, for high. (QTLL is far fetched).

I ran some sims. Pretty easy to contruct a hand for Villain such that he's ahead 3 to 1, or 2 to 1, or 3 to 2 (or even).

The question is, will he fold if you bet the turn. If you think probably not, then I like the check behind. Then it's tough on the river after the checks on the turn. You have to more or less expect him to bet the river, almost regardless of what it is.

But then is he betting the nut low or a diamond flush? He doesn't need high diamonds.

I can easily simulate this from your perspective on the river. You see one diamond in your hand and three on the board. I'll use Wilson and simulate this final board, your hand, and a blank hand for Villain. OK, 100000 runs.

About a minute more on the old computer I use for Wilson sims.... Villain wins with diamond flush, as simulated, 18165/100000... about 18.2%.

Thus before Villain bets the river, it's about four to one he is betting a low hand (rather than the diamond flush) on the river.

Once he bets the river, you have to think a diamond flush is more likely than four to one against, but even if the possibility he has a diamond flush is three to one against, Hero loses t2700 one time and wins t1350 three times. t1350*3-t2700*1=+t1350.

I like the check behind on the turn but I think you should call the river bet. He's too much more likely to not have trip aces beaten for high.

Buzz






ty bob


Poker Stars $15.00+$1.50 Pot Limit Omaha Hi/Lo Tournament - t100/t200 Blinds - 5 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

SB: t5613 M = 18.71
BB: t9605 M = 32.02
UTG: t8508 M = 28.36
CO: t12614 M = 42.05
Hero (BTN): t6725 M = 22.42

Pre Flop: (t300) Hero is BTN with 2 A 9 A
2 folds, Hero raises to t500, 1 fold, BB calls t300

Flop: (t1100) J A 4 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets t800, BB calls t800

Turn: (t2700) 6 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks

River: (t2700) K (2 players)
BB bets t2700, Hero folds[/QUOTE]