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10/20 o8 in horse 10/20 o8 in horse

09-20-2013 , 03:55 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by monikrazy
ProPokerTools Omaha Hi/Lo Simulation
36 trials (Exhaustive)
board: qj36
Hand Pot equity Scoops Wins HiTies HiWins Lo Ties Lo
AcAs7s4h23.61% 330140
ah5htdks34.72% 913030
qcqhtc2s41.67% 1020000

Hero is not a significant dog on the turn. And this is against both villain's showing up at near the top of their respective ranges.


Also note what happens if we fold out AA4
ProPokerTools Omaha Hi/Lo Simulation
40 trials (Exhaustive)
board: qj36
Hand Pot equity Scoops Wins HiTies HiWins Lo Ties Lo
ah5htdks53.75% 16160150
qcqhtc2s46.25% 1324000
I think you got this wrong.Its more likely that SB has the AA type hand since he 3betted pre and forces the action.Hard to say what button has but if you raise the turn very likely you will get this as result:
ProPokerTools Omaha Hi/Lo Simulation
40 trials (Exhaustive)
board: qj36
Hand Pot equity Scoops Wins HiTies HiWins Lo Ties Lo
AcAs7s4h61.25% 21240150
ah5htdks38.75% 1216030
I would not raise turn since you are cutting your pot odds putting more money as a dog in a potential HU pot opening yourself to a 3bet.
10/20 o8 in horse Quote
09-23-2013 , 03:52 PM
Folding pre is not right.
Jam flop or call, same thing.
Do not raise this turn, no clue why anyone would..
River is ok to call depending on reads, but it's close to a fold.
10/20 o8 in horse Quote
09-24-2013 , 09:30 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by z0fman
anyway...on the turn i guess i could ve just called to pot control a bit but...
Pot control really doesn't make any sense as a concept here. The pot is going to be minimum 11 bets if you call, and while it could get really really big if you and the bettor get in a raising war, the functional difference between the two isn't that big once you get to as many as 11 bets in the pot.

I'm not saying there aren't some differences -- you saw how hard it is to fold in huge huge pots -- but "pot control" in the NLHE/PLO sense, of avoiding a big pot when your hand isn't strong enough to be a favorite in a big pot, seems like the wrong concept once the pot's around 8-10 big bets.

I'm eager for O8 experts to tell me if I'm thinking wrongly.
10/20 o8 in horse Quote
09-24-2013 , 09:43 PM
Semi-grunching, now:
  • Call or cap pre. You have a very good high hand and a plausible low hand, which do well shorthanded. The 3handedness and the reads make folding very wrong.
  • Raise flop. You're absolutely getting full value, but what Buzz is missing is that knocking the button out is a GOOD THING. The pot is already quite large, and we can win it HU by spiking as little as top pair or a running two pair. We can also knock out 4A, 42, and rarely 2A (loose players aren't folding BDNLD though)
  • Turn, with 19 outs, most to the nuts, you're almost getting fresh money odds HU. And knocking button out is still good in a huge pot, so I'm EDITING my post to favor raising.
  • River, I honestly don't know but probably fold the first time. Are you good for low 1/8 of the time? Hard to see it but it's close.
  • The second time you're in a real pickle, but probably fold. Now you have to be good less often but against stronger ranges.


To that flop point:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Buzz
I would have played Hero's hand a bit differently.

OK.

I wouldn't raise here. (Because I wouldn't want to take a chance on knocking out BTN). I mean, wouldn't you rather have BTN paying you off if you make your hand? (You have only a draw at this point. Why face BTN with a double bet?)
I rightly get accused of overapplying SSHE, but I'm quite sure it applies here. Somewhere Ed mentions that people think they want to keep in customers with a nut flush draw + overs, because they forget about the overs. O8 is a much harder game than HE to win with top pair, but it does happen, and it happens much more often HU than 3h. You could easily draw out on QJ by spiking, say, an ace or king on the turn and another pair, trips, or a 3 on the river, and QJ should be toward the top of an aggressive player's range, since he's also betting heart draws, straight draws, overpairs, etc.

Last edited by AKQJ10; 09-24-2013 at 09:58 PM.
10/20 o8 in horse Quote
09-24-2013 , 10:12 PM
There are just so many good things that can happen by raising this flop. I mean, SB is probably leading if he happens to have something like AQ27 here, right? He's aggressive! And you are so much better off HU than 3 handed against something like that.

You do give up a couple of bets if the button folds and you make a nut hand, but...
  • Sometimes just like here he calls two cold but wouldn't have raised. So smooth calling cost you a bet, or more if the SB would have reopened.
  • The times you lose as many as 2.5 big bets, occasionally more, by driving the guy out are somewhat more common than the times you win either side of the pot with a hand that wouldn't have won 3 handed, but the payoff for driving him out "correctly" is greater and stands to become greater still, a half or whole pot which is now 5.5 big bets.
  • You're not always going to lose 2.5 bets. Sometimes he had just enough to take a card off in a big pot, say a backdoor low that bricks the turn. So it's really a weighted average of sometimes 0.5, sometimes 1.5, etc.
  • You're not 100% to win the pot, so you have to further weight those 2.5 bets of opportunity cost. You might split the pot -- again, weight those bets.

It's a hard comparison because they both depend on parlays: He would have called 1, AND he folds to 2 cold, AND your nut hand would have come in and held up, AND he would have called all those bets with his inferior hand that would have stayed in on the flop for only one bet.

(versus)

He would call 2 cold, OR button folds AND

(a one- or two-pair hand comes in AND wins for you AND would not have won if button hadn't folded

OR

a weak low comes in AND beats SB AND wouldn't have held up if button hadn't folded)




And we can also get into alternative lines like, maybe we do better to smooth call the flop and try to knock button out on the turn.



So, complex game, eh?

Last edited by AKQJ10; 09-24-2013 at 10:21 PM.
10/20 o8 in horse Quote
09-28-2013 , 09:03 PM
cap flop, dont rr turn
10/20 o8 in horse Quote
09-28-2013 , 11:24 PM
Seems pretty clear that flop is a r/cap. Not sure on the turn, if you cap flop we may need to check the turn.

SB is never folding on the turn and button isn't either once he calls a cap on the flop, so I think hoping for a free card is probably better.
10/20 o8 in horse Quote
11-08-2013 , 07:10 PM
Honestly the only thing I see wrong with this hand is not capping the flop to just flat the turn. Flatting to raise any turn just costs more money in the long run. Also I think you can actually fold to the last raise on the river. I know it sucks that you have to fold to one bet in such an enormous pot, but when you are so close to 0% of both ends, it's best to just cut your losses, and anyway, those bets that you give away when you know you are beat add up in the long run.
10/20 o8 in horse Quote
11-28-2013 , 01:08 PM
pre is fine, cap flop (even hu you're around 50% equity against a set), as played c/call turn. I think river is fine?
10/20 o8 in horse Quote
11-28-2013 , 06:06 PM
Cap flop. Turn is fine w me and river I'm folding once button raises. You know where the SB is and once the button calls two cold on the turn, you SHOULD know where he is.
10/20 o8 in horse Quote

      
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