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Who Will Be The 2016 Republican Nominee? (It's Donald Trump) Who Will Be The 2016 Republican Nominee? (It's Donald Trump)

01-20-2016 , 05:04 PM
i think wookie made the run out the clock analogy earlier, but if we are down to two or three weeks from the Iowa Caucus, there is definitely some value to a Palin endorsement just dominating 3+ days of media cycle.
01-20-2016 , 05:05 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by bobman0330
Heh.

I generally buy the Trump-as-master-manipulator theory, so I found the Palin endorsement to be a pretty surprising misstep for him. There's crazy like a fox, and then there's crazy like a crazy person.
If he refuses the endorsement he loses a ton of the base
01-20-2016 , 05:06 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by goofyballer
I guess we won't know until there are more polls, but while we're all LOLing here at Trump and Palin, there are actually people that like her and will actually be swayed by this endorsement, right? Is that number smaller than the number of supporters he'd lose over bringing such a trainwreck on stage?
It's got to help him in the primaries and will be long forgotten after the convention
01-20-2016 , 05:08 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ccotenj
like others, i'd guess she's a net positive in iowa. she can steal the cruz voters who are wavering pretty easily, get some from carson (are there any left?) and i don't see her costing him any.

dunno about nh. that kasich number in that arg poll was interesting. could be that adding "more crazy" to the trump side continues that trend. the establishment would like that a lot.

who knows after that? she's still the queen to many. the question is, how many of her following is already in the trump camp? and if cruz withers, can she pull all his support to trump. if so, that gives the donald a pretty formidable advantage.

while i'm pretty positive she is a net-negative to the electorate at large, i'm not necessarily convinced she can't be a net-positive in the gop primary.
I'm assuming a lot of Cruz supporters are Palin supporters
01-20-2016 , 05:11 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mayo
I do not understand all of you guys speculating that the Palin endorsement will hurt Trump. Trump and Palin are both superstars of the crazysphere, but they have slightly different constituencies. Trump's is angry dumb blue collar white people. Palin's is resentful dumb religious rural white people. There's a ton of overlap in those, but it's not a perfect overlap. So Trump picking up some support from the Palin people is very good for him, and imo is highly unlikely to hurt him with the people who were already supporting him.

Basically, I'm saying that even though reasonable people look on a Palin endorsement as a huge negative indicator, reasonable people aren't voting for Trump in the first place.
Best Mayo post in the thread.

Really

All of you who think it's bad for trump already hate Trump
01-20-2016 , 05:12 PM
Trump isn't a genius. He's a bully who can turn a phrase. Remember how bullies were good at insults? We're now giving Trump a genius level IQ for being able to do such? Really? It took a long time for everyone here to accept Palin wasn't intelligent. It will take even longer for Trump.

Palin might help for the primaries, but please tell me how she is anything but a liability in the general. We've been here before.
01-20-2016 , 05:15 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by aoFrantic
Trump isn't a genius. He's a bully who can turn a phrase. Remember how bullies were good at insults? We're now giving Trump a genius level IQ for being able to do such? Really? It took a long time for everyone here to accept Palin wasn't intelligent. It will take even longer for Trump.

Palin might help for the primaries, but please tell me how she is anything but a liability in the general. We've been here before.
How will Palin supporting trump hurt him in the general

What group will turn on trump due to it
01-20-2016 , 05:16 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by metsandfinsfan
How will Palin supporting trump hurt him in the general

What group will turn on trump due to it
By motivating the unmotivated to vote against stupid.
01-20-2016 , 05:16 PM
Ask John McCain?
01-20-2016 , 05:23 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DVaut1
What if we instead viewed it strategically as an increasingly zero sum game between him and Cruz?

If you do, can't we sort of recognize all of the points above, namely that:

1. Palin is a snowbilly grifter
2. Palin probably won't move the needle much
3. Palin is casually offensive to many
4. Palin's endorsement is effectively doubling down on Trump's existing base but doesn't expand it

BUT

5. in a world where your main is competition is Ted Cruz, and Sarah Palin will eventually endorse someone -- isn't having her endorsement better than Ted Cruz having it?

Maybe in a perfect world where you're Trump, you might not seek or want her endorsement. But isn't getting it better than Cruz getting it?

Or assume information is imperfect and you're not sure how much effect it would have. The safer bet would probably to get it, rather than your principle rival. IMO.

So I guess what I would say is that I can reconcile all of your collective points as valid and Trump might too, but you would still want her endorsement if you saw the race as between you and Ted Cruz for the hearts and minds of the 2016 GOP primary voters, not you and the Platonic ideal of a well functioning contest for the leader of a respectable political body.
So it's basically your classic Godzilla vs. Mecha-Godzilla situation. In a rational world, all the kaiju would band together and destroy humanity, but due to lack of coordination, you end up with lots of entertaining, only mildly destructive monster on monster violence. Makes sense to me!
01-20-2016 , 05:23 PM
I got a metsandfinsfan. Now *there's* a positive indicator.
01-20-2016 , 05:25 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MrWookie
By motivating the unmotivated to vote against stupid.
I don't see how this could be very many people. The Anti Palin crowd should be pretty similar to the anti Trump crowd. Even if the was a large group of people, the people unmotivated to vote at this point probably don't care about endorsements anyway.
01-20-2016 , 05:26 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MrWookie
By motivating the unmotivated to vote against stupid.
Those people would already do that
01-20-2016 , 05:27 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by aoFrantic
Ask John McCain?
Her endorsement /= vice president
01-20-2016 , 05:27 PM
If Trump chooses Kaschick and he accepts they beat hillary imo
01-20-2016 , 05:29 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by metsandfinsfan
If Trump chooses Kaschick and he accepts they beat hillary imo
Good thing they won't have to rely on write in votes.
01-20-2016 , 05:30 PM
I'm not sure I accept if I'm Kasich. Good chance you go down with the ship and never recover.
01-20-2016 , 05:34 PM
i think Trump is benefiting from a lot of guys like me who would never vote for him in the general but want him to win the republican nod. I think he is like charlie sheen, his act will wear really thin this summer, assuming he wins. But for right now, he has this huge vibe of support, this buzz factor because nobody on the left is scared of him. we want him.

And that trickles into the media, MSNBC loves trump, they laugh at him, they cover him 24/7 practically. Fox goes out of their way not to cover him and do things like edit Cruz clips to help him. The Politico too trolls trump with their article titles and coverage. I think they want the Trump roll to end, whereas quite a few democrats really don't just yet.

That means trump has is going on from both sides. I think this Palin thing, you see how everybody is laughing at it. how cruz has to say how much he still loves palin, and it's all such a joke. But how excited everyone was at the spectacle, tea party types and liberals all tuning in.

But things like that past debate, this palin thing, these things keep building up, he looks like a clown, because he is a clown. i think it is going to come all crashing down on him this summer when he faces serious venom. when the laughs only come from the loons, when the same folks who are laughing now want to kick his ass. when he has been doing this act for over a year. "winning!" sure thing freak.
01-20-2016 , 05:38 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by nyc999
I'm not sure I accept if I'm Kasich. Good chance you go down with the ship and never recover.
I'm not sure he does either but not for that reason
01-20-2016 , 05:38 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by metsandfinsfan
How will Palin supporting trump hurt him in the general

What group will turn on trump due to it
Quote:
Originally Posted by MrWookie
By motivating the unmotivated to vote against stupid.
bingo. she may have lost some pull in the gop, but the dems have not forgotten about her.

every bit of crazy helps the dems. a big ol' steaming heap of it helps a lot.
01-20-2016 , 05:41 PM
I got to believe Trump won't get near Palin if he gets the nod. There is no way it would be smart if say she speaks at the convention, or even is out on the stump. She is insane and everybody sees that. again, we only tolerate it now because its funny and the ratings.
01-20-2016 , 05:42 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by nyc999
I'm not sure I accept if I'm Kasich. Good chance you go down with the ship and never recover.
if i've got any aspirations in the party past this election, i don't think i would even take donald's call. that's a big gamble.
01-20-2016 , 06:08 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by sadyoshi
The idea that Trump does NOT have a masterstroke is far-fetched. You can hand-wave away the racist stuff as "anybody could do it", but a lot of his other skills are not in this category.

Are people really not impressed by Trump's takedowns of basically every other candidate by now? Or his disciplined media strategy (which is why AWice was saying he's a machine)?
Trump's "takedowns" only work within the context of playing to an audience of people impressed by painful/sophomoric jokes. I'm not impressed that Dane Cook can get his audience to laugh at his jokes, 'cause I mean they showed up to a Dane Cook show.
01-20-2016 , 06:13 PM
To me Palin's negatives are pretty minor for Trump, but they're helpful for message board conversations where you can point out to the "Trump is a genius" crowd that he's appealing to the same unquestioned doorknobs who love(d) Palin. IMO the biggest reason he gets painted as some media genius and she's crazy is gender. A male blowhard is seen as powerful, a female version makes a lot of dudes really uncomfortable.
01-20-2016 , 06:22 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dids
To me Palin's negatives are pretty minor for Trump, but they're helpful for message board conversations where you can point out to the "Trump is a genius" crowd that he's appealing to the same unquestioned doorknobs who love(d) Palin. IMO the biggest reason he gets painted as some media genius and she's crazy is gender. A male blowhard is seen as powerful, a female version makes a lot of dudes really uncomfortable.
Palin was a B-/C+ team politician from a state with more moose than people who got lifted into the national spotlight by McCain and promptly crashed and burned. Trump is the frontrunner for the GOP presidential nomination despite a total lack of political accomplishment plus the unanimous and bitter opposition of the entire party establishment. They're a lot different.

      
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