FYP.

This post gives credence to your recent registration date. It's hard to imagine somebody with a longer history on a poker forum taking this sort of line.

My two cents... I think the Rep vs Dem market is basically a coin flip at this stage. The only reason I don't bet on that is opportunity cost. If I had a large enough roll (talking at least six figures), I probably put 1% on Rep to win cause at this stage, either party can win. It all depends on the candidate and how they go about campaigning. But both parties IMO are equal in strength and resources.

Governors and ex governors at the top of the list. Paul, Cruz, & Rubio chances are way overrated. I think Rick Perry will make a run at it. Karl Rove (the architect) is the defacto Repub strategy guru which would make Jeb the favorite I guess. I think with the way the Repubs are managing their funds that we will not see a repeat of the 2012 primary season. Fewer debates for sure.

Alternative explanation

Eisenhower a war hero. Slam dunk.

Kennedy won an extremely close (some claim Richard Daley stuffed the ballot box). Nonetheless the Dems were by far the more popular party by far as evidenced by elections from the Great Depression onward.

Nixon won in the wake of a very unpopular war and Humphrey barely lost in the popular vote. A lot of the middle class were disillusioned with various aspects of the Great Society initiative.

Carter, Watergate - Nixon pardon.

Bush, hey that was pretty much a tie and of course all the Florida stuff with the SCOTUS ruling. Could be the most controversial POTUS election in US history. Gore garnered the most votes overall.

Obama, Iraq war, Great Recession with it's financial meltdown among the main reasons.

I'll bet on it at even money for a small figure, with no escrow to avoid those opportunity cost downsides.

LOL, you completely whiffed on the point he was making. The market is not a flip for the republicans. They are an almost 1.5-1 dog hence why he would bet it when he perceives it a flip.

Since most of us here are poker players, I hope you'll appreciate this answer:

I think that's a good bet for me. But I also think that, if I am patient, eventually, an over-aggressive, impatient sort will make a mistake and offer me odds I just can't turn down.

So, I decline. For now.

Christie too low, Bush too high, Rand too high.

If I read your post correctly, you're saying each election has its own set of circumstances, and what I am reading as a trend is merely randomness in action. If so.....that's a pretty good point, too.

But I'm one of those who thinks that the basic mistrust that the public has regarding politicians, political parties, etc. causes a virtually automatic pendulum action. And the pendulum seems to fail to complete its swing with merely one election.

There are what? somewhere between 12-15 Republicans being named as potential candidates? One thing that would help (my side) would be for Rove or whoever has some clout in the party to persuade some of these guys to rein in their egos and not run. I mean it's nice to have a lot of guys who would make fine Presidents, but they don't need to be out there tearing each other down.

Exactly, I only perceive it to be +EV for me at current market odds. Not at 50/50.

I'll make some predictions right now based on what I have seen so far. Complete speculation.

Bush decides to run. He does well at first but common core and immigration sink him, especially in the debates. He wins Florida.... if he makes it that far.

Christie never wins a state except New Jersey, maybe New York.

Rand Paul comes out hot and as the favorite. But that means he's also the biggest target. Eventually it becomes too much. His past comments and affiliations are used against him constantly. He takes 3rd in the Iowa Caucus, it's below expectations and bows out of the race before NH.

Marco Rubio does not run if Jeb Bush runs. Likewise, he does run if Bush does not enter the race. He wins Florida. But nothing else.

Scott Walker becomes the predominant establishment candidate. Wins 2nd most states and NH. Raises the most money until South Carolina.

Ted Cruz uses the debates ala Newt Gingrich to get the national spotlight. He wins Iowa and South Carolina. Is endorsed by Rand Paul. He unites the Tea Party and the Christian coalition.

Ted Cruz wins the most states on Super Tuesday. Ted Cruz wins the nomination.

Ted Cruz does well with Latinos but not a majority. Enough to win the general.

Walker becomes VP. Rand Paul becomes Secretary of State.

Bahahaha Rand and Cruz couldn't be much further apart on policy. He won't endorse him. That national spotlight in the debates comes from attacking Rand.

Also Cruz offers nothing Latinos want, he is an empty name.

lol at Ted Cruz winning the general

In November of 2010, most would have said the same thing about Obama, don't you think?

uh, no

e-r-r-r-r......what if I sheepishly backed it up to '06?

This ignores the differences. Obama's unlikelihood in 06 is much different to Cruz in 2014.

I think several people will wait to see if Jeb runs. Jeb will be well financed, organized, have ton of PAC money behind him. He will be tough to beat in the primaries. If he does not run I think a lot of that money goes to Christie. Outside of Romney, Christie and Jeb I really do not see any Rep being able to raise the money to compete with Hillary. Hillary will probably not have to spend any of it to get the Dem primary.

The Romney ship has pretty much sailed.

Cruz seems Machiavellian enough to have a strong chance at winning in the general that someone like Bachmann or Palin wouldn't.

Don't see him running. But if he does he would have a lot of money behind him and be able to compete with anyone. Also, his loss to Obama will not look as bad when the Dem candidate also lost to Obama.

Quoted for the lolz

Lol wat