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Who Will Be The 2016 Republican Nominee? (It's Donald Trump) Who Will Be The 2016 Republican Nominee? (It's Donald Trump)

08-06-2015 , 09:19 AM
republican base:

-evangelical christians and fundamentalists/creationists
-uneducated low-skilled white folk from rural murica

am i missing anything? rich elites are kind of an overwhelming minority in this country (and not all rich people vote republican, obv), so i dont feel like they should be lumped in with the base. their motivations for voting republican are drastically different as well
08-06-2015 , 09:30 AM
I believe Romney did win the college educated vote 51-47

Also a ton of suburban upper-middle class whites vote republican just because they feel they will get to hang on to more of their $ if they do so.
08-06-2015 , 09:34 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by revots33
I'd say 6-1 right now. Tonight's debate will go a long way towards clarifying. He does well and he's a co-favorite with Jeb and Walker. He comes off dumb and uninformed (strong possibility), he's back to longshot status.
Lol, since his announcement of running he has been the embodiment of dumb and uninformed.
08-06-2015 , 09:35 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by simplicitus
That leads me to a question many 'smart' repblicans should consider: is it just some coincidence that many of the views you hold happen to also be held by the least knowledgeable and informed segments of society?

To which the obvious reply: "Well, I'm actually a libertarian. We're smart. We even have a magazine called Reason."
It's not actually true? Democrats do just fine among those with little or no education. Good circle jerk though!
08-06-2015 , 09:38 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by [Phill]
Trump has led for a long time and he won't be doing anything dumber than he has already.
That sounds like a challenge!
08-06-2015 , 09:39 AM
Yes, always find it incredibly foolish when people think a political party has a monopoly on stupidity.
08-06-2015 , 09:49 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Onlydo2days

Also a ton of suburban upper-middle class whites vote republican just because they feel they will get to hang on to more of their $ if they do so.
Another bait and switch by the GOP to win uninformed voters, like being "right to life".
08-06-2015 , 09:58 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by [Phill]
Lol, since his announcement of running he has been the embodiment of dumb and uninformed.
Not really. I mean all anyone really knows is that he wants to build a giant wall to keep out the Mexicans. What are his positions on anything else related to foreign/domestic policy? He hasn't said anything that truly shows he's clueless yet, because he hasn't said anything.

The Trump camp says he has never debated before and has done no rehearsal or prep for tonight's debate. Could be a recipe for disaster unless Trump surprises me and is more knowledgeable than he seems.
08-06-2015 , 10:07 AM
His entire platform is "I'm awesome. Everything I do is awesome"; and that's where he stands on all the issues.


"What will you do about education?"

"I'll be awesome!"


It's weirdly hard to refute.
08-06-2015 , 10:23 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BigPoppa
His entire platform is "I'm awesome. Everything I do is awesome"; and that's where he stands on all the issues.


"What will you do about education?"

"I'll be awesome!"


It's weirdly hard to refute.
How do you debate someone that thinks so highly of himself? When everything he does is bigger and better including his ideas?
08-06-2015 , 10:26 AM
hit him with facts and play gotcha games

force him into narrowing down a position and then ridicule him, ez game
08-06-2015 , 10:52 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by BigPoppa
His entire platform is "I'm awesome. Everything I do is awesome"; and that's where he stands on all the issues.


"What will you do about education?"

"I'll be awesome!"


It's weirdly hard to refute.
It's not just weirdly hard to refute. I think it also resonates with a group of people who believe that managing the government just isn't that goddamn hard. If we could just get rid of the double-talking politicians and cut out all the loopholes and pay attention to the goddamn Constitution, everything would be perfect. Trump's attitude of "It's easy if you just get the POLITICIANS out of the way and let the DOERS run the show" scratches a real itch among these people.
08-06-2015 , 11:00 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by revots33
Not really. I mean all anyone really knows is that he wants to build a giant wall to keep out the Mexicans. What are his positions on anything else related to foreign/domestic policy? He hasn't said anything that truly shows he's clueless yet, because he hasn't said anything.

The Trump camp says he has never debated before and has done no rehearsal or prep for tonight's debate. Could be a recipe for disaster unless Trump surprises me and is more knowledgeable than he seems.
Seems like everyone here thinks that Trump is the Republicans' chickens coming home to roost, but if you think that the party's race/gay/Muslim/immigrant baiting is largely just a ploy to get dumb white people to vote against their interests, who's to say that Trump isn't just playing this game better then anyone else? I mean, the guy's a rich, secular developer from Queens, for Christ's sake; maybe he just wants to whip some banking deregulation on us and book.
08-06-2015 , 11:12 AM
CNN has three GOP debates announced w/first on 9/16, don't believe qualification criteria has been established. First Dem debate on 10/13.
08-06-2015 , 11:13 AM
Why would hildawg even agree to a debate?
08-06-2015 , 11:14 AM
Because she would look awful if she refused
08-06-2015 , 11:16 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by simplicitus
That leads me to a question many 'smart' repblicans should consider: is it just some coincidence that many of the views you hold happen to also be held by the least knowledgeable and informed segments of society?

To which the obvious reply: "Well, I'm actually a libertarian. We're smart. We even have a magazine called Reason."
How do you want to define stupid other than " people who agree with me?". If you use educational attainment as a proxy and define the 81 percent of the electorate as stupid if they do not have a post graduate degree then the Dems have a clear advantage. Obama won that demo 55/42. I would argue that there is more than one way to demonstrate non stupidity and earning over $100k (28% of the electorate) might be used as a proxy and in that demo the Republicans do well, winning that demo 54/42. If you want to loosen the requirement for not being stupid to holding a college degree (47%)or above then the electorate is split 50/50. Earning over 50k (59%) favors the GOP 53/48. The very bottom of the electorate in educational attainment. (HS grad or less, 24%) was won by the Dems 53/46. Earning less than 50k (41%) is also a Dem demo 60/38. You could certainly normalize this data by age/race/sex and get different results but it is hard to argue that the GOP is the party of the stupid.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv...lls/table.html
08-06-2015 , 11:19 AM
lol olds tho

Most GOP ass kicking in the income category is just because 55 year olds usually make more than 35 year olds at the same educational attainment levels.

I would like to see the breakdown just by white people though.
08-06-2015 , 11:21 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by seattlelou
How do you want to define stupid other than " people who agree with me?". If you use educational attainment as a proxy and define the 81 percent of the electorate as stupid if they do not have a post graduate degree then the Dems have a clear advantage. Obama won that demo 55/42. I would argue that there is more than one way to demonstrate non stupidity and earning over $100k (28% of the electorate) might be used as a proxy and in that demo the Republicans do well, winning that demo 54/42. If you want to loosen the requirement for not being stupid to holding a college degree (47%)or above then the electorate is split 50/50. Earning over 50k (59%) favors the GOP 53/48. The very bottom of the electorate in educational attainment. (HS grad or less, 24%) was won by the Dems 53/46. Earning less than 50k (41%) is also a Dem demo 60/38. You could certainly normalize this data by age/race/sex and get different results but it is hard to argue that the GOP is the party of the stupid.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv...lls/table.html
My Tea Party Facebook friend just posted this image on his timeline:

(NSFW in Germany)
Spoiler:


I'm not sure how much money he makes. Sorry.
08-06-2015 , 11:29 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by metaname2
My Tea Party Facebook friend just posted this image on his timeline:

(NSFW in Germany)
Spoiler:


I'm not sure how much money he makes. Sorry.
8/10, not bad. But seriously, tbf, I saw tons of ridiculous photoshops of Bush II about how he was secretly a lizard or member of some elite world power group from all my environmental crazy liberal friends.

It's so hard to define "educated" since who decides what is educated? Soon enough I will have my second degree but if you asked me to fix my transmission on my car, I would be clueless. Reverse applies if you asked my mechanic to solve a legal question.
08-06-2015 , 11:32 AM
Ya don't forget Michael Moore's garbage did make like 120M at the box office.

I think that D'souza only did a fraction of that for his fiction hatchet job.
08-06-2015 , 11:39 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by +rep_lol
republican base:

-evangelical christians and fundamentalists/creationists
-uneducated low-skilled white folk from rural murica

am i missing anything? rich elites are kind of an overwhelming minority in this country (and not all rich people vote republican, obv), so i dont feel like they should be lumped in with the base. their motivations for voting republican are drastically different as well
Yes you are missing basic demographic info.
08-06-2015 , 11:44 AM
Lol at income being a more reliable proxy for intelligence than education level.
08-06-2015 , 11:45 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Onlydo2days
lol olds tho

Most GOP ass kicking in the income category is just because 55 year olds usually make more than 35 year olds at the same educational attainment levels.

I would like to see the breakdown just by white people though.
Normalize by cost of living and you would see that effect blunted. more Dems live in high cost areas and making 100k in NY is much easier than making 100k in Omaha. Of you normalize education by age the olds should get a bump. The value of a degree is much different today then it was 30 years ago.
08-06-2015 , 11:50 AM
There's maybe like 14 intelligent people in the world over the age of 70 imo

      
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