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Who Will Be The 2016 Republican Nominee? (It's Donald Trump) Who Will Be The 2016 Republican Nominee? (It's Donald Trump)

04-03-2016 , 03:31 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Alex Wice
Seems like GOPe is just willing to outright steal.

Honestly I don't see any recourse for Trump even if they continue to do what they are doing. Seems like the only way to keep people in line would be vigilante justice, which no-one is currently willing to mete out.
Pretty deep intellectual thoughts here Alex. Maybe there should be an army of brown shirted Trump loyalists on hand at the convention to administer beatings?
04-03-2016 , 03:50 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ChrisV
The weird thing is I'd still bet on him being north of average IQ. He's just ignorant of everything outside his bubble and has a disdain for learning anything. He's also under the impression he can do anything simply by barking orders at people. This is what happens when you're rich and surrounded by sycophants for your entire life.
Trump is responsible for having the most beautiful buildings, structures, and golf courses built in the world. Then you have to call him dumb. Have you ever considered looking in the mirror.

I can get that Bernie and Hillary voters want to steal money, stolen checks, tax free endowments, property tax free schools, overpriced health care, overpriced drugs, overpriced everything as long as they can make the workers and Trump pay for it all.

Bernie would be fired at McDonalds. He offers nothing to the workers. He is a fraud of the elite class. The elite class are the professors, teach one class and they want to be paid 6 figs. Why not youtube that class? No we can't do that we might lose our jobs.

Schools, hospitals, and government have become the churches of the dark ages.
04-03-2016 , 04:16 AM
Lol. Other than the obvious fact that many courses put content online, I'm enjoying the "everything academic could be boiled down to a good YouTube if you wanted "
04-03-2016 , 04:44 AM
I was in Malibu yesterday, all those beach houses should be taken by eminent domain either by the city or privately. I would love to see the shoreline opened up to the public. The rich folk can move into skyscrapers. More land could be turned into parks and public beaches. The homeless those that actually went to Vietnam could be given free land to live in Malibu. I think the people that live there fundamentally believe this too. I have never seen so many beautiful public parks in such a small space. There is even quite a bit of locked up open space private and public. A $2 million mobile home. One person pays $2,000 in property tax, the person next door pays $70,000. The truth at the crossroads.

I say this here because Trump has been reamed by the libertarians like Rand Paul and Ted Cruz over eminent domain by the private sector and Trump.
04-03-2016 , 05:00 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ChrisV
The weird thing is I'd still bet on him being north of average IQ.
You realize don't you that the average IQ person is less than even money to answer a question like name the vice president, multiply 9x6 or define "veto"?
04-03-2016 , 06:07 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by vixticator
Aura of personality loooool

I thought Trump was mostly an idiot before he ran for POTUS, and not in my wildest imagination was he this much of one.
Quote:
DT: Through the aura of personality. Through having the goods. You know, so Muhammad Ali is a friend of mine. He’s a good guy. I’ve watched many people over the years. Muhammad Ali would get in the ring and he’d talk and talk and scream and talk about the ugly bear, and this, that — you know. And then he’d win. And respect is about winning. We don’t win anymore. I see it in my — we don’t win anymore. And he’d win. I’ve seen many fighters that were better than Muhammad Ali, in terms of talking. I’ve seen guys that were so beautiful, so flamboyant, they’d get into the ring — and then they’d get knocked out. And guess what? It’s all gone. Let me just say: we don’t win anymore.
Talk/scream
Ugly Bear
????????
Win
04-03-2016 , 06:31 AM
He's running out of targets for his bile and has nothing to fill his policy vacuum with apart from anecdotes and name dropping.
04-03-2016 , 07:22 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by David Sklansky
You realize don't you that the average IQ person is less than even money to answer a question like name the vice president, multiply 9x6 or define "veto"?
I think you're overstating the case a little, but yeah. I'm the one here defending Trump from charges of being an "idiot". If I were to list his deficiencies for POTUS, which are legion, I don't think low IQ would crack the top 10.
04-03-2016 , 07:41 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by domer2
trump can lose if he has 1237 pledged. they could theoretically deploy the nuclear option and unbind state delegates. not a high probability scenario but it is doable.

just fyi, the delegate system is in place for this exact scenario: to prevent a demagogue like trump gaining the nomination with only a plurality of support.
If he has 1237 pledged on paper (meaning he slightly outperforms expectation and none of the past month mattered) it's just not happening / still 0%. Aside from all the other reasons, once he gets to that point the nomination itself becomes so toxic to the thief that there's no reason for anybody to steal it anymore.

Quote:
Originally Posted by domer2
there is effectively no rule 40b. that is a media meme that has way too much weight. the 8 state rule was a 2012 convention novelty to prevent ron paul's fanatics from disrupting the convention.

the 2016 delegates will decide the rules for the 2016 convention from scratch. the rules committee will likely copy/paste past rules, but they can delete and add whatever rules they want. the rules drafted by the committee will then be voted on by the delegates (in 2012 this was done by voice vote and essentially just rammed through).
The party loyalists and the Cruz loyalists will often be the same people. Cruz has at least called most of those 56 already and will be working on them all summer / regardless, they have no incentive to undermine Cruz before the first ballot when screwing up could get Trump elected instead.

Besides, that rule's meaningless except for the also rans we both agree are dead draws. No reason to stick your neck out for Kasich.
04-03-2016 , 08:44 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by David Sklansky
You realize don't you that the average IQ person is less than even money to answer a question like name the vice president, multiply 9x6 or define "veto"?
Would you care to lay me even on those, then, Dave? Not sure how we'll find average IQ people in a sufficient sample size for me to run you dry, but I think once you think about giving me that cash you'll realize you don't want to find them.
04-03-2016 , 08:47 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ChrisV
I think you're overstating the case a little, but yeah. I'm the one here defending Trump from charges of being an "idiot". If I were to list his deficiencies for POTUS, which are legion, I don't think low IQ would crack the top 10.
There's a pretty strong argument that Trump's stupidity is the wellspring of all his other problems. Obviously by itself it would be harmless, but his stupidity combined with a lifetime of people assuring him that he's smart means that Donald Trump is essentially Dunning-Krueger Man, the world's ****tiest super villain.

And from his simple, childlike grasp of the world we get the racism and the blather about strength and the blather about making everything better and the blather about hiring the best people and all the rest.

You can change a lot of individual checkmarks and still have Trump be The Donald, but you plug 15 or 20 IQ points in there to get him above average and he becomes an entirely different person.
04-03-2016 , 08:57 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by FlyWf
Holy **** Donald Trump doesn't know what "trade deficit" means.

Great businessman, surrounded by just the best people.
At first I was convinced he was using the term to hoodwink his more idiot supporters who didn't know. Ie all his supporters.

Right now I seriously think he doesn't know either. If he did he would need to be absolutely certain no one in the media will ask him to explain what one is and how you renegotiate it.
04-03-2016 , 09:00 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by rugby
Lol. Other than the obvious fact that many courses put content online, I'm enjoying the "everything academic could be boiled down to a good YouTube if you wanted "
It taught steel house everything he knows
04-03-2016 , 09:06 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by adanthar
If he has 1237 pledged on paper (meaning he slightly outperforms expectation and none of the past month mattered) it's just not happening / still 0%. Aside from all the other reasons, once he gets to that point the nomination itself becomes so toxic to the thief that there's no reason for anybody to steal it anymore.



The party loyalists and the Cruz loyalists will often be the same people. Cruz has at least called most of those 56 already and will be working on them all summer / regardless, they have no incentive to undermine Cruz before the first ballot when screwing up could get Trump elected instead.

Besides, that rule's meaningless except for the also rans we both agree are dead draws. No reason to stick your neck out for Kasich.
Lol you were saying he had 0% chance when he got second in Iowa.

If trump is close to 1237 he needs he will get over the top. They get nothing out of screw jobbing millions of their own base given the alternative has to be Cruz who is just as bad. There is literally nothing cruz is better at than trump given he won't move to the middle on anything which frankly is identical if not worse than just having no idea what the middle wants to hear.
04-03-2016 , 09:22 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by adanthar
If he has 1237 pledged on paper (meaning he slightly outperforms expectation and none of the past month mattered) it's just not happening / still 0%. Aside from all the other reasons, once he gets to that point the nomination itself becomes so toxic to the thief that there's no reason for anybody to steal it anymore.
Think the 1237 outcome is unlikely at this point, but the risk to the House & Senate is so great that deploying the nuclear option may be the least worst outcome for everyone.

65% of people have voted for someone other than him so far, so it's not like he has some popular mandate.

Quote:
Originally Posted by adanthar
The party loyalists and the Cruz loyalists will often be the same people. Cruz has at least called most of those 56 already and will be working on them all summer / regardless, they have no incentive to undermine Cruz before the first ballot when screwing up could get Trump elected instead.

Besides, that rule's meaningless except for the also rans we both agree are dead draws. No reason to stick your neck out for Kasich.
Party loyalists have no reason to preclude more electable Republicans from being nominated. Cruz's stance is self-serving, and the only other beneficiary of it is DT. Accommodating something like that undermines the party. There would need to be a majority of people on the convention rules committee that place their loyalty to Cruz/Trump before their loyalty to the party.
04-03-2016 , 09:32 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Alex Wice
... the Trump TN delegate news. Seems like GOPe is just willing to outright steal.
trump is the one trying to steal delegates in TN.

of the 58,
3 are chosen by the national party.
14 are chosen by the state party.
41 are chosen by the candidates with exact numbers allocated based on their vote percent in the primary.

Trump is raising stink because he is trying to steal the states appointees. He wants to name 7 of the 14 state party allocated delegates, 'his share'.

that's the stealing going on - Trump is trying to name more delegates than the rules grant him.

(State party rules dictate that their 58 delegates are bound for the first 2 ballots. Even the 17 delegates chosen by the party ARE bound to specific candidates for these first 2 ballots.)
04-03-2016 , 09:36 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by FlyWf
There's a pretty strong argument that Trump's stupidity is the wellspring of all his other problems. Obviously by itself it would be harmless, but his stupidity combined with a lifetime of people assuring him that he's smart means that Donald Trump is essentially Dunning-Krueger Man, the world's ****tiest super villain.

And from his simple, childlike grasp of the world we get the racism and the blather about strength and the blather about making everything better and the blather about hiring the best people and all the rest.

You can change a lot of individual checkmarks and still have Trump be The Donald, but you plug 15 or 20 IQ points in there to get him above average and he becomes an entirely different person.
Eh. I can't prove it, but I think this is like taking a religious person and saying that if you give them like 20 IQ points they drop the religion. In the case of TRUMP, his religion is himself and his own capability to do anything.

I guess it's a meaningless distinction in this instance, but I think there's a distinction between IQ and an interest in how the world works. The latter is essential for POTUS, in fact more so than IQ.
04-03-2016 , 09:59 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by domer2
Think the 1237 outcome is unlikely at this point, but the risk to the House & Senate is so great that deploying the nuclear option may be the least worst outcome for everyone.
So you think rat****ing TRUMP doesn't make his derpy base voters angry? That they will just willingly go vote and go vote R downticket? Even if TRUMP goes nuclear?

I think you underestimate the resentment the TRUMP voters will have for the shenanigans.
04-03-2016 , 10:02 AM
no, he's saying that a lot of those people would never have voted anyway so there's more to gain by not chasing away actual voters.
04-03-2016 , 10:13 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by domer2
Think the 1237 outcome is unlikely at this point, but the risk to the House & Senate is so great that deploying the nuclear option may be the least worst outcome for everyone.

65% of people have voted for someone other than him so far, so it's not like he has some popular mandate.



Party loyalists have no reason to preclude more electable Republicans from being nominated. Cruz's stance is self-serving, and the only other beneficiary of it is DT. Accommodating something like that undermines the party. There would need to be a majority of people on the convention rules committee that place their loyalty to Cruz/Trump before their loyalty to the party.
But like over 85% of the people have voted for someone other than Cruz so that's gotta be super duper bad right??
04-03-2016 , 10:35 AM
yes, cruz also doesn't have a popular mandate
04-03-2016 , 10:37 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by FlyWf
Holy **** Donald Trump doesn't know what "trade deficit" means.

Great businessman, surrounded by just the best people.
You're saying this like this is a new revelation. He's been basically saying the same thing for months. It's been abundantly clear that the guy has no idea what a trade deficit is. It also pretty clear that he thinks that our various trade deficits are a component of our budget deficits (i.e. each trade deficit is just a mini budget deficit that gets added up to contribute to the budget deficit as a whole).

I've always wished that someone call him on this, but quite frankly, I'm not entirely sure that the folks asking the questions really have this straight and even if they did, the explanation as simple as it is, would probably still be too much for the average viewer to grasp.
04-03-2016 , 10:46 AM
http://nypost.com/2016/04/03/ivana-t...ald-his-hands/
Quote:
“I don’t think he’s feminist,” Ivana says upon her return when asked of Donald’s stance. “He loves women. But not a feminist.” (Ivana’s reps called The Post two days after the interview to clarify that Donald was a feminist. Then they called to say he wasn’t. An hour later, they said he was.)
04-03-2016 , 10:48 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ChrisV
The weird thing is I'd still bet on him being north of average IQ. He's just ignorant of everything outside his bubble and has a disdain for learning anything. He's also under the impression he can do anything simply by barking orders at people. This is what happens when you're rich and surrounded by sycophants for your entire life.
I kind of agree with both you and DS on this point. His IQ probably is a little above average. Also average is still pretty ****ing stupid.


Quote:
Originally Posted by David Sklansky
You realize don't you that the average IQ person is less than even money to answer a question like name the vice president, multiply 9x6 or define "veto"?
However, I don't think that average is quite this stupid. I think a 100 iq person could do 9 x 6 and veto. Name the VP might be tougher because I'm sure there are a ton of people who have zero interest in politics after the election year. But knowing that is not really an IQ issue (though it is likely correlated). If you just picked veto or 9 x 6 you would be very wrong. If they had to go 3 for 3, you may have something, but you did say "or".
04-03-2016 , 10:57 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by grizy
Nate is really in denial/negotiation here.

His own logic suggests Drumpf is still the favorite. 1200 bound delegates and only about 27% of the unbound.

The delegates are in fact people... many of whom will face re-election after voting against the most popular candidate in their respective districts.

I think the market basically has it right. >50% prob of contested but if Drumpf makes it close enough, it's going to be hard to deny him. It's not "1237 or bust" for him like many people just flat out assume.
The article says nothing about who is a favorite, and your talk about re-election pretty much confirms you have no idea what you're talking about. Respective districts? WTF are you talking about?

      
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