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Who Will Be The 2016 Republican Nominee? (It's Donald Trump) Who Will Be The 2016 Republican Nominee? (It's Donald Trump)

03-09-2016 , 04:27 PM
His comments are more like a sorority girl cattily digging at her competition. And that **** is not easy to neutralize - it's expert-tier bullying
03-09-2016 , 04:27 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Phone Booth
Again, these kinds of things make him at most marginally more attractive. It's not a sign that Kasich is a leading VP candidate that needs to be saved at all costs. Let's go back to see if VP candidates are disproportionately chosen from swing states - these are the last 10 VP candidates:

Representative from Wisconsin (2012 R)
Senator from Delaware (2008/2012 D)
Governor from Alaska (2008 R)
Senator from North Carolina (2004 D)
Former Secretary of Defense, CEO, Representative from Wyoming (2000/2004 R)
Senator from Connecticut (2000 D)
Representative from New York (1996 R)
Senator from Tennessee (1992/1996 D)
Senator from Indiana (1992 R)
Representative from Texas (1992 D)

Literally not a single person from a swing/battleground state.
Interesting to analyse the reasons for the picks (their assumptions, not mine):

Ryan - Pro-business, sound on economics, wonkish, young, more conservative than Romney.

Biden - Experienced, white blue-collar candidate.

Palin - Religious right appeal (that McCain lacked), female to diversify the ticket that was running against an African American.

Edwards - Good looking, young, Southern blue collar.

Cheney - Experienced in foreign affairs, oil industry businessman, close friend of Bush Sr.

Lieberman - Harsh Clinton critic, who put distance between Gore and his old boss, conservative leanings that could attract Northern Republicans.

Kemp - ideologically opposed to Dole, once sworn enemies. A unity ticket that tried to appeal to all Conservatives.

Gore - a very rare example of a pick that was made because he was SIMILAR to the candidate...Cliinton doubled down on the young, southern ticket to try to appeal to young voters as well as win back some of the South for the Dems.

Quayle - young, fresh-face to contrast with Washington insider Bush.

Bentsen - This is your only error (though I agree with your premise). In 1988 no Democrat had ever won the White House without winning Texas. It was a swing state, and Bentsen was selected because he was from Texas to counteract Bush's advantage.
03-09-2016 , 04:33 PM
Earlier I asked about TRUMP's high school career. Romney was outed as something of a bully, and there has to be some juicy stories about TRUMP. He never really left high school. We know how much Cruz was detested in college, so where's the dirt on TRUMP? I suspect a lot of this stuff (and much more) will come out if he's the nominee.

Also, for those worried about Hillary head to head vs TRUMP, she will have Obama and Bill teamed up and stumping hard for her. TRUMP will say stupid things, more dirt will come out, and I think it's a 60/40 win for Clinton. If there's a terrorist attack or whatever, Hillary will look more presidential. Only thing that nails her is an indictment over email-gate, and the FBI will have to think long and hard before going after her in any significant way. You best not go after the Clintons and miss.
03-09-2016 , 04:34 PM
Nacho eating bros finally come forward: http://www.dailydot.com/lol/marines-...o-trump-rally/

03-09-2016 , 04:37 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by simplicitus
Earlier I asked about TRUMP's high school career. Romney was outed as something of a bully, and there has to be some juicy stories about TRUMP. He never really left high school. We know how much Cruz was detested in college, so where's the dirt on TRUMP? I suspect a lot of this stuff (and much more) will come out if he's the nominee.

Also, for those worried about Hillary head to head vs TRUMP, she will have Obama and Bill teamed up and stumping hard for her. TRUMP will say stupid things, more dirt will come out, and I think it's a 60/40 win for Clinton. If there's a terrorist attack or whatever, Hillary will look more presidential. Only thing that nails her is an indictment over email-gate, and the FBI will have to think long and hard before going after her in any significant way. You best not go after the Clintons and miss.
How would any damaging high school stories not have already come out with the GOPe unloading both barrels trying to stump the Trump?
03-09-2016 , 04:42 PM
GOPe machine is minor league these days compared to DEMe.
03-09-2016 , 04:42 PM
@jbarro

All the stages of the GOP establishment's grief over Donald Trump will be funny except Acceptance.
03-09-2016 , 04:47 PM
The thing is there are two divergent streams of acceptance:

1) **** it, can't vote for Hillary, all aboard the Drumpf Express

2) Oh god the libtards were right all along

#2 is, while rarer, likely to produce some tiny amount of crossover Hillary voters but mostly just kick people into dissaffected apolitical non-voters.
03-09-2016 , 04:48 PM
Wired published a correction to a story about Donald Trump today. Apparently they had a Chrome extension turned on that changed every mention of “Donald Trump” to “Someone With Tiny Hands.”
03-09-2016 , 04:53 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mayo
I got bored just scrolling past that, suzzer.
For realz.

suzzer,

I can't believe you a.) put forth the effort to read and bold the - making an assumption here- relevant comments and b.) thought people would read that wall of text. C'mon man.
03-09-2016 , 04:59 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by suzzer99
Nacho eating bros finally come forward: http://www.dailydot.com/lol/marines-...o-trump-rally/

The Facebook comments, good lord.
03-09-2016 , 05:14 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Phone Booth
Again, these kinds of things make him at most marginally more attractive. It's not a sign that Kasich is a leading VP candidate that needs to be saved at all costs. Let's go back to see if VP candidates are disproportionately chosen from swing states - these are the last 10 VP candidates:

Representative from Wisconsin (2012 R)
Senator from Delaware (2008/2012 D)
Governor from Alaska (2008 R)
Senator from North Carolina (2004 D)
Former Secretary of Defense, CEO, Representative from Wyoming (2000/2004 R)
Senator from Connecticut (2000 D)
Representative from New York (1996 R)
Senator from Tennessee (1992/1996 D)
Senator from Indiana (1992 R)
Representative from Texas (1992 D)

Literally not a single person from a swing/battleground state.
Wisconsin in 2012, Tennessee in 1992, and Indiana in 1992 were all "battleground" states.
03-09-2016 , 05:15 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by suzzer99
Trump would go after Walker's wife compared to his own wife.

shows character
03-09-2016 , 05:21 PM
Low confidence Scott Walker
03-09-2016 , 05:23 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by microbet
Like how the British make their Jewish politicians eat a bacon sandwich.
Lol ridiculous again. No one made Milliband eat bacon. He's Jewish by birth but is non practising and said he's always enjoyed bacon. What the problem?
03-09-2016 , 05:26 PM
Pea brained Walker way behind in the polls. Still polling at 0. Koch brothers gave $15mill! Sad.


Lots of people telling me there could be another recall in Wisconsin. Should have worked the last time. Sad.


Dumpy Scott always brags about cheap suits. Need president with style like jfk. I was good friends with jfk jr. Sad.
03-09-2016 , 05:30 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by TomG
Low confidence Scott Walker
The Sun Ain't Gonna Shine Any More
03-09-2016 , 05:36 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by suzzer99
Um, you frequent this forum right?

Ignore the scared majority at your peril.
Pasting silly walls of text from Facebook is the nut low. Get a life dude.
03-09-2016 , 05:39 PM
2+2 forum posters thought I was a lightweight. Sad!
03-09-2016 , 05:43 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jalfrezi
Lol ridiculous again. No one made Milliband eat bacon. He's Jewish by birth but is non practising and said he's always enjoyed bacon. What the problem?
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk...m-9885745.html
03-09-2016 , 05:58 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mayo
Wisconsin in 2012, Tennessee in 1992, and Indiana in 1992 were all "battleground" states.
In 1992 Clinton lost Indiana by 6 points despite winning nationally 6. That's not a swing state in a close election. I guess "tipping point state" was closer to what I meant. It's completely irrelevant for the purposes of winning the election. And it was just as irrelevant in 1988 or 1996.

Tennessee in 1992 is close but Tennesee was R-leaning by about 4% in 1988. Likewise Wisconsin was D-leaning by 3% in 2008. I think both cases are closer to situations where a VP selection that was made for unrelated reasons made a non-swing state into a swing state. Either way, if you loosen the classification where these states qualify, then tons of states qualify as swing states and it's unremarkable that 2 out of the last 10 VPs were selected from swing states.

Quote:
Originally Posted by JoeDiego
This is your only error (though I agree with your premise). In 1988 no Democrat had ever won the White House without winning Texas. It was a swing state, and Bentsen was selected because he was from Texas to counteract Bush's advantage.
Yeah I erroneously put 1992 as well. I guess it was seen as a swing state at the time but Texas was R-leaning by 2-3% in 1980, 6-7% in 1984 and despite Bentsen clowning Quayle, still R-leaning by 2-3% in 1988. It was kind of lost for the most part since the Southern Strategy and Jimmy Carter was only able to put it in play because he was a Southern evangelical himself before the realignment was complete. In a way the whole "swing state" phrase is a bit of a misnomer for this period because the realignment wasn't complete and there were far more swing voters. Also, when you're talking about senators and representatives instead of governors, state-level popularity isn't as big of an issue - it's more about the general demographic appeal.
03-09-2016 , 06:00 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by thenewsavman
For realz.

suzzer,

I can't believe you a.) put forth the effort to read and bold the - making an assumption here- relevant comments and b.) thought people would read that wall of text. C'mon man.
Yeah it takes all of 2 minutes to read the whole thing

It provides an insight into how people think in times of fear, which goes directly to my prediction that a Paris-style attack = Republican president. It's easy to forget now because San Bernardino has largely faded from memory.
03-09-2016 , 06:02 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by simplicitus
Also, for those worried about the entire GOP establishment head to head vs TRUMP, they will have every Republican politician stumping hard. TRUMP will say stupid things, more dirt will come out, and I think TRUMP will lose-decisively.
sound familiar? it seems pretty lol to write off TRUMP in the general after he pulled off the most extraordinary presidential primary victory in American history, and he hasn't started campaigning against Hillary yet.

ya Hillary might win. she might not, too. 40% presidential equity is TRUMP's floor imo.
03-09-2016 , 06:06 PM
Trump's floor is more like 10-20% if he can't pivot and Trump fatigue sets in among all but his die hard oath-takers.
03-09-2016 , 06:09 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by microbet
Another skew. What that article says is

'Miliband has undoubtedly lost some support among Labour-defined Jewish voters because of his Middle Eastern policies.'

Perhaps you should be asking a different question.

      
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